. Data Variables 2-digit level NAICS industry classification for each county <strong>and</strong> the City of Fredericksburg. c. Sources <strong>and</strong> <strong>Methodology</strong> See the final PB projection report is included herein as Section 7. d. Results <strong>and</strong> Adjustments Upon increasing the base year employment in the government sector for Stafford <strong>and</strong> King George Counties to account for additional 2010 military employment at MCB-Quantico <strong>and</strong> NSWC-Dahlgren above the control total for the government sector, GWRC staff realized that the projected employment growth in these jurisdictions for the balance of the 2010-2020 decade would appear to be inconsistent with growth forecasts for the region overall. Consequently, the PB-control forecasts for 2020 were adjusted to apply a linear interpolation of employment growth from the adjusted 2010 estimate through 2030. During this process, GWRC staff also noticed that, despite the projected population growth for Caroline County over the 2010-2040 period, retail employment in Caroline County was projected to remain flat <strong>and</strong> even experience a decline from 2030-2040. While Caroline County has no aggressive plans to pursue or expectations of attracting strong retail sector growth 6 , an absolute decline in this sector seemed inconsistent with the forecasted population trend. To adjust the retail sector forecast, GWRC calculated the 2010 retail employment to total population ratio <strong>and</strong> applied this constant ratio to the County’s projected population for 2020, 2030 <strong>and</strong> 2040. In order to hold the regional control forecast constant, the additional retail employment added in Caroline was deducted from Spotsylvania County’s retail employment projection. The resulting downward adjustment in Spotsylvania County’s total projected employment level for 2020, 2030 <strong>and</strong> 2040 revised these projections modestly in a manner consistent with expressed original County staff concerns of unrealistically-high employment projections for the County. Another adjustment to the PB control forecast resulted from the re-allocation of the 2,500 employees of the FBI Academy in Stafford County from “Education Services” to “Government”. Since the PB W&P adjusted forecast was based on W&P’s mis-classification of the FBI Academy, the resulting forecast was inconsistent with the base year estimate. GWRC staff adjusted Stafford County’s Education Services sector forecast by applying constant (2010 Education Services employment/Total County Population) multiplied by the future County population to increase Education Services sector employment for each horizon year (2020-2040). The net difference in this sector over the original W&P adjusted sector forecast was added to the Government sector employment, to maintain the County employment forecast for each decade. The final adjusted total employment forecasts (see Exhibit 4, Section 8) <strong>and</strong> sector-level employment forecasts (see Exhibits 15-20, Section 8) were rounded by GWRC to provide a more appropriate forecast series for long-range modeling use. 6 Per presentation on Caroline County economic development strategies by Caroline Co. Economic Development Director Gary Wilson to GWRC Board at November 21, 2011 GWRC Board meeting. FAMPO 2040 Long-Range Transportation Plan: Socio-Economic Data Element 19
Exhibit 6. Comparative Local Employment Growth <strong>Projections</strong>, 2010-2040 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Caroline Co King George Co Fredericksburg City Spotsylvania Co Stafford Co 2010 2020 2030 2040 FAMPO 2040 Long-Range Transportation Plan: Socio-Economic Data Element 20
Change language