RUSSIA THE EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND THE EU COOPERATION STAGNATION OR RIVALRY?

PUBLIC OPINION
Representatives of the eldest age group were
less inclined to see the advantages of joining the EU
(as compared with the other age groups). 4
Residents of the South and the East (less – of the
West) were more prone to name the advantages of the
Customs Union. “Common history” and “presence of
natural resources” were less frequently named among the
advantages of joining the Customs Union by representatives
of youth (as compared with the other age groups).
While comparing the EU and the Customs Union,
the general public found it difficult to distinguish
which one of them is “a simpler and more reliable
partner”, “more prone to dictate, both politically and
economically, to its members”, “offers more opportunities
for promoting goods of its member countries to markets
of third countries” – almost equal proportions of the
respondents attributed all these features to both the EU
and the Customs Union (Diagram “Comparing the EU
and the Customs Union…?”). However, the majority
believes the EU pursues a more socially oriented policy,
where GDP growth leads to an increase of personal
income (47% vs. 15%).
All in all, 49% suggested that the European model
is far more attractive than the Russian one (only 23%
disagreed with that), and 43% agreed that the Customs
Union’s countries have no democracy (31% disagreed)
(Diagram “Do you agree with the following statements?”).
The following disadvantages of the EU were
mentioned more frequently: unstable economic
situation (34%), uneven economic development of
the EU countries (32%), domination by some leading
states over other EU countries (31%), as well as
differences in culture, values, mentality of citizens of
the EU countries (24%), shortage of natural resources
(23%), unemployment (16%) (Diagram “What are the
main disadvantages of the EU?”). Regarding the current
crisis in the EU, 48% of respondents noted that it would
be resolved with time, and the EU citizens would avoid
facing fundamental deterioration of living standards
(only 20% disagreed with that) (Diagram “Do you agree
with the following statements?”).
Disadvantages of the EU were less evident to
the residents of the West, more – to the residents of
the South. Southerners more frequently noted domination
by the EU leading states over other EU countries,
cultural differences, unemployment, and alongside with
Easterners – the unstable economic situation and shortage
of natural resources. By contrast, residents in the West
indicated the EU’s inefficient migration policy (which
could be a sign of discontent with what the respondents
see as severe obstacles to entering EU countries).
Major drawbacks of the Customs Union, as
people see them, include corruption (48%), grey
economy (33%), Russian domination (29%), and lack
of democracy (27%) (Diagram “What are the main
disadvantages of the Customs Union?”).
Disadvantages of the Customs Union are more
evident to the residents of the West, who mention
corruption, lack of democracy, Russian domination
(although these factors are quite often reported in other
regions, too). The spread of grey economy is equally often
reported by residents of the West, Centre and East; less
often – by residents of the South. Representatives of the
eldest age group and people with low level of education
(incomplete secondary) hardly ever mentioned the
disadvantages of the Customs Union.
Representatives of some social and professional
groups assess disadvantages of the Customs Union from
the viewpoint of their professional interests. For instance,
businessmen referred to corruption (61%, and 48%
of all the respondents polled) and unfriendly business
environment (19% and 7%, respectively).
By and large, when comparing the EU and the
Customs Union, the EU’s prospects for development
(38%) prevailed over those of the Customs Union
(31%), although many respondents spoke of uncertain
future for both unions (36% and 35%, respectively)
(Diagram “How would you assess the prospects for
further development of…?”).
Positive attitudes towards the EU’s prospects prevail
in the West, among the Ukrainian-speaking population,
and rise markedly among younger respondents and
those with higher education.
Prospects for the Customs Union are more positively
assessed in the South and the East, and among the
Russian-speaking population. Interestingly, more favourable
attitudes rise with age and fall with better education levels.
Assessments of the “humanitarian potential” or
“human capital” of the EU and the Customs Union are
controversial. Here, in many respects, the respondents’
perceptions of the EU are more positive: for instance,
they believe that in the EU people are more cultured (48%)
than in countries of the Customs Union; have a stronger
sense of dignity (42%); more socially active and caring
(42%). Instead, they note that people in the Customs Union
and Ukraine are more alike mentally (64%). However,
judging by the logic of those polled, this mental kinship
also has some negative connotations such as relatively low
level of culture, social passivity, lack of personal dignity
(Diagram “Comparing the EU and the Customs Union
countries, where do you think the people are…”?).
Explaining attitudes to Ukraine’s accession
to the EU or the Customs Union 5
Proponents of EU membership tend to name
economic reasons to explain their position: “life will
get better, living standards will increase, we will secure
a better life for our children and grandchildren” (21% of EU
supporters), “living standards in the EU are higher than
in Ukraine” (21%), “since Europe is technologically and
socially more developed than Ukraine, accession to the EU
will speed up Ukraine’s development”, “give an impetus to
Ukraine’s development” (11%), “it will promote economic
reforms, economic and industrial development,” (10%).
Meanwhile, more than 5% of EU supporters also mentioned
the following reasons: “this will give Ukrainian citizens
a possibility of visa-free travel across the EU countries”
(8%), “the European social model is more attractive” (7%),
“this will reduce unemployment” (6%) (Diagram: “Why do
you think we should join the EU…?”). Hence, on top of
economic reasons, supporters of European integration
also spoke of social prospects and social changes that
should take place in Ukraine after its accession to
the EU, as well as simplification of travel to the EU
countries for Ukrainian citizens.
Opponents of accession to the EU explained their
position as follows: “we are not wanted in the EU” (19%
of those opposing the EU membership), “our people are
not prepared and not ready to live in the EU” (14%),
4 Hereinafter – 60 years and more.
5
Questions about motives were open-ended, i.e., respondents were not given a list of possible answers to choose from, but formulated answers on
their own. Their answers were codified and summarised.
RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2013 • 105