RUSSIA THE EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND THE EU COOPERATION STAGNATION OR RIVALRY?

PUBLIC OPINION
Opponents of the Agreement have often argued that
“we will not be equal partners in the EU, we will join it
on terms of enslavement” (19%), “this will give Ukraine
nothing, it will not promote economic development” (13%),
“it is better to make friends with Russia” (11%), “the
EU is in crisis, it is breaking apart” (9%), “we are not
ready to sigh the Agreement” (9%), “we should not
adjust to match any structure but set things right on
our own” (8%), “domestic production will decline, we
will become a raw material appendage of the EU” (6%)
(Diagram “Why do you think Ukraine should not sign
the Association Agreement with the EU?”).
At that, only 30% of respondents are familiar with the
content of the Agreement (24% in the West; 35% in the
South) (Diagram “Are you familiar with content of the
Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU?”).
Knowledge of the Agreement increases with respondents’
education (from 15% among people with incomplete
secondary education to 39% among those who have
higher or incomplete higher education).
48% of citizens know that the EU has set the
requirements Ukraine should meet for the Agreement to
be signed, but only 7% know all of them, 81% knows
them partially, and 11% have no idea whatsoever
(Diagrams “Do you know that the EU has set the
requirements Ukraine should meet before signing the
Association Agreement?”, “Are you familiar with these
requirements?”).
Assessing the effects of the Association Agreement
on different aspects of life of Ukrainian society, the
respondents have often noted positive effects in most
domains listed in the questionnaire: development of
economy (53%), democracy (52%), education, science
and technologies (51%), development of the housing
and utilities sector, roads, infrastructure (49%),
quality of foodstuffs (47%), efficiency of Ukrainian
leadership (41%), individual income (41%), corruption
(38%), unemployment (37%), environmental
situation (36%) (Diagram “What effects do you expect
from the Association Agreement…?”). A relative majority
of Ukrainians polled (30%) expect no effect on the level
of social stratification; 35% – negative effects on prices
for goods and services (slightly higher than the proportion
of those expecting positive changes – 31%).
In other words, the Ukrainians polled expect the
Agreement to have a positive impact on all domains except
prices for goods and services (where the accession to the
Customs Union is thought slightly more often to bring
positive changes in this domain). The biggest difference
in favour of signing the Association Agreement was
shown in the following domains:
• the level of democracy (33%)
• the level of corruption (23%)
• efficiency of the leadership (21%)
• development of the housing and utilities sector,
roads, infrastructure (20%). 9
According to the survey, positive effects from the
Association Agreement are more often expected in the
West and Centre, by representatives of younger age groups,
and people with high education (refer to the Razumkov
Centre’s web site: www.razumkov.org).
In general, the respondents representative of all sectors
of the economy have exhibited predominantly positive
expectations from the Agreement (from 54% to 64%).
Among social and professional groups, businessmen and
students shared the most optimistic views, pensioners –
the most pessimistic.
9
Diagram “Difference in expectations of effects …”.
SOCIAL PORTRAITS OF UKRAINIANS SUPPORTING MEMBERSHIP
IN THE EU OR THE CUSTOMS UNION, AND OF THOSE UNDECIDED
On the basis of answers to three questions: “Which integration path
should Ukraine choose?”, “Should Ukraine join the EU?”, “Should Ukraine
join the Customs Union?”, three groups of respondents were distinguished:
1) staunch supporters of Ukraine’s accession to the EU (35% of all those
polled); 2) staunch supporters of Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union
(29%); 3) those undecided about Ukraine’s integration trajectory (36%).*
Supporters of Ukraine’s accession to the EU (hereinafter – supporters
of the EU)
Two-thirds of the EU supporters are younger than 50 years old. 69% of
them live in the West and Centre. More than two-thirds (68%) are Ukrainianspeakers.
65% are voters of the three biggest opposition parties –
All-Ukrainian Association Batkivshchyna, UDAR of Vitaliy Klychko and
All-Ukrainian Association Svoboda. 40% have higher or incomplete higher
education – much more than among the proponents of the Customs Union (25%)
and among those undecided (27%). The majority of them (57%) have
relatively high income (those who reportedly “can live on it” or “do well”).
As well as in the entire adult population of Ukraine, women are in a slight
majority in that group (54%).**
The importance of personal experience and contacts in showing
support for different lines of integration is shown by the fact that, say,
the EU supporters have had much greater personal experience of visiting
the EU countries than proponents of the Customs Union (34% and 13%,
respectively). They also more often have had the experience of living in the
EU countries (7% and 2%, respectively), friends or relatives living in the EU
countries (42% and 17%, respectively).
Social environment plays an important role in shaping foreign policy
preferences. For instance, 37% of the EU supporters said that their friends
or relatives support Ukraine’s European integration, and none of them favour
the country’s membership in the Customs Union (while among strong
proponents of accession to the Customs Union, such an answer was given
by only 2% of respondents).
48% of this group often termed their knowledge of the EU as average;
an equal percent of respondents from this group (42%) also thought their
knowledge of the Customs Union was average or poor.
Comparing the channels of information that influence perceptions of the
EU and the Customs Union, the EU supporters – probably, due to high share
of young people and people with high education – obtain information from
Ukrainian and Russian Internet sites.
The EU supporters critically assess recent developments in Ukraine:
74% believe the situation in Ukraine is developing in a wrong direction
(among all the respondents polled – 66% think so).
There is little difference in perceptions of the most urgent social
problems among proponents of different integration lines. However, slightly
more supporters of the EU (31%) noted the “inefficiency of Ukrainian
leadership, their inability to implement reforms and enforce the law” as
compared to 22% of the proponents of the Customs Union, and 24% of
those undecided.
Despite dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian authorities’ policy, almost half
(45%) of the EU proponents believe that the authorities still lead Ukraine
toward integration with the EU.
Among the advantages of EU membership, they often mentioned high
level of social protection (70%), rule of law (43%) and developed democracy
(41%). 94% believe that the EU offers better conditions for Ukraine’s
innovative development, its transformation into a country with developed
economy, social and cultural sector.
This group also mentioned some disadvantages of joining the EU. They
usually spoke of unstable economic situation in some EU countries (25%),
uneven economic development of the EU countries (25%), domination
by some leading EU countries over others (22%), shortage of natural
resources (19%), different cultures of the EU countries (16%). 28% saw
no disadvantages.
Membership in the Customs Union, according to respondents, has the
following disadvantages: corruption (64%), Russia’s domination (41%),
lack of democracy (41%), grey economy (40%). Among the advantages
of the Customs Union, they often mentioned common history (35%),
and natural resources (35%). 40% of EU supporters see no advantage in
joining the Customs Union.
73% believe the EU is a more reliable partner than the Customs Union,
while 85% prefer the EU for “a more socially-oriented policy, where GDP
growth results in growth of individual incomes” (85%).
The majority believes that in the EU countries, people are more socially
active, cultured, moral, and having a stronger sense of dignity than people
in the Customs Union. Nevertheless, the mentality of people living in the
Customs Union countries is more similar to that of Ukrainians.
The majority in this group believes that Ukraine and Ukrainian people
will benefit from Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and will lose from its
accession to the Customs Union.
* The latter group includes those who, answering those questions, either gave vague
and contradictory answers (e.g., support accession to both the EU and the Customs Union,
or evasive replies (found it “hard to say”).
** Women are also in a majority among the adherents of Ukraine’s accession to the
Customs Union (55%) and among those undecided (56%).
RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2013 • 109