RUSSIA THE EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND THE EU COOPERATION STAGNATION OR RIVALRY?

FOCUS GROUP RESULTS
Particular interests of the EU. Among these interests,
the discussion participants noted the EU’s interest in cheap
manpower, imports of cheap electricity from Ukraine. Quite
often the participants said that the EU’s interest was in the
use of Ukrainian territory for stationing of environmentally
hazardous enterprises, and burying radioactive and toxic
waste.
• Cheap manpower. We are not protected – so, we may be paid less
(Kharkiv)
• We have the cheapest electricity, many nuclear and hydropower
plants (Zhytomyr)
• They will place polluting enterprises, hazardous factories
(Zhytomyr)
• They will move their heavy industry here (Donetsk)
• We will be Europe’s rubbish-dump (Zhytomyr)
Meanwhile, according to many participants of a focus
group, the EU will promote democracy development and
market reforms in Ukraine in order to make the Ukrainian
market more civilised and to protect their investments.
• Certainly, the EU will promote market reforms in Ukraine to
establish common standards of doing business (Zhytomyr)
Particular interests of the Customs Union. The discussion
participants named the use of Ukraine’s transit potential, in
particular, for oil and gas delivery across its territory.
• For Russia, we are a transit territory, in the first place. In case of
accession, the transit fee will be cancelled (Kharkiv)
At the same time, some focus group participants spoke of
the Customs Union’s interest in import of Ukrainian products.
• Moderator: What Ukrainian products may the Customs Union
consume, or import?
• First of all, agricultural produce.
• Metallurgy.
• Space industry. Aircraft building (Kharkiv)
Incentives for choosing
Ukraine’s integration trajectory
Ukraine’s integration in the EU or the Customs Union
was often seen as a civilisational choice, a choice between
the European and Eastern (Eurasian) civilisations.
• Choice between the Western civilisation and the Eastern model.
Between democracy, and full absence of democracy in the East
(Simferopol)
On the one hand, some of the discussion participants
noted that Ukraine’s civilisational choice is not an argument
for a multinational country whose regions have different
civilisational roots, past and historic memory:
• Our people, both Russian and Ukrainian, are so mixed, some with
Tatars, some with Rzeczpospolita for 200 years. There were so
many different civilisations here that everyone will find and choose
something for himself ( Kharkiv)
Also noteworthy, some participants also mentioned
personal motives in favour of joining the EU and the Customs
Union alike:
• The soul wants to join the Customs Union, but the mind wants to
enter the EU (Donetsk)
Incentives for joining the EU. The focus group
discussions about the motives for accession to the EU and
the Customs Union correspond to the results of the national
public opinion poll. 2
In particular, when favouring the EU, the focus group
participants, as well as the poll respondents, were mainly
guided by possible economic benefits, social development,
and liberalisation of travel to the EU countries for Ukrainian
citizens.
Economic benefits were associated with the possibility
to obtain new technologies, loans, modernisation, access
to the European market for Ukrainian manufacturers,
increased living standards.
With respect to prospects of social development, the
participants highlighted the social policy of the EU countries
and expressed hope that integration in the EU would
encourage the development of Ukraine’s social policy in line
with European standards, promote democracy, rule of law and
respect for human rights, and help overcoming corruption.
Incentives for joining the Customs Union. Similar
to respondents of the public opinion poll, the participants
of the focus group often referred to a cultural and mental
kinship (cultural kinship, unity of people, similar mentality,
common history). When speaking about economic benefits
the emphasis was not so much on the economic development
but on the growth of markets, cheaper energy resources,
reduced or cancelled customs duties; creation of new
working places, increase in living standards to an average
level of the Customs Union).
When discussing the incentives for joining the Customs
Union, none of the participants mentioned development of
democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights.
Conditions and prospects
for implementing the Association
Agreement and effects of its signing
The participants were rather pessimistic when assessing
the chances of meeting the terms and conditions of the
Agreement. Quite often they said that the association with
the EU did not offer Ukraine any economic benefits but, on
the contrary, called for fulfilment of the conditions aimed
at long-term solutions of social problems.
At that, the participants said, the Ukrainian elite (i.e.,
politicians, oligarchs, officials) would by all means obstruct
the reforms necessary for Ukraine’s integration with the EU,
since their implementation might substantially restrict their
powers:
• Politicians will sign the Agreement but do nothing [to implement it]
(Kyiv, Simferopol)
On the other hand, some discussion participants stressed
that the EU was not interested in Ukraine’s integration
and, therefore, had put forward tough conditions for
signing the Association Agreement. Europe does not
want to bring Ukraine – a country with complex social
and economic problems – any closer, to open borders for
millions of potential migrants:
• Europe does not want us. I agree that we are a heavy burden for
them. Do you understand? They will have to help us solve our
problems (Lviv)
• There was a public opinion poll saying that 67% of the population
wants to leave Ukraine for permanent residence. They all will leave
for Europe (Lviv)
• Ukraine, with its corruption, is like a carcinoma for Europe, difficult
to get rid of later (Zhytomyr)
Overall effects of signing the Association Agreement.
The participants view signing of the Association Agreement
as the first step towards Ukraine’s integration with the EU,
and they often found it difficult to distinguish between
the effects of signing of the Association Agreement and
Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Among the advantages of signing the Agreement, they
mentioned:
• development of democracy, improvement of the situation
with human rights;
• improvement of the legislation;
• assistance with fight against corruption;
• possibility of a visa-free travel to the EU countries;
• creation of favourable conditions for dovelopment of the
national economy: legislation that promotes enterprise
development, credits for enterprise development, access
to EU markets;
• growth of social standards (social security, high level of
medical services)
2 For more detail see the material “Customs Union or Europe? The public
opinion”, published in this journal.
RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2013 • 101