RUSSIA THE EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND THE EU COOPERATION STAGNATION OR RIVALRY?

PUBLIC OPINION
the European model of organisation of the state and
society, as compared to the Russian one.
Among the main advantages of the EU, citizens see
the high level of social protection, rule of law, developed
democracy, availability of financial resources, quality
of healthcare, high levels of science and technology
development, low level of corruption. The social
dimension of the EU policy, according to respondents, is
its main advantage over the Customs Union countries.
Instead, the perceived advantages of the Customs
Union include common history and culture, similar
mentality among citizens of the Customs Union members,
access to natural resources, energy supplies, as well as
stable economic situation.
Among the drawbacks of the EU, the Ukrainian citizens
see unstable economic situation in some EU countries,
uneven economic development of its member states,
domination by some leading states over other countries,
as well as differences in cultures, values, mentality of
citizens of the EU countries, shortage of natural resources,
unemployment.
Meanwhile, corruption, grey economy, Russia’s
domination, and lack of democracy are seen as major
drawbacks of the Customs Union.
4. People living in the Customs Union countries,
according to respondents, are closer to Ukrainians mentally.
However, judging by the logic of those polled, that mental
kinship largely involves negative features: relatively low
culture, social passivity, lack of personal dignity. Such
qualities as high level of culture, social activity, sense of
dignity, according to respondents, are more inherent in
citizens of the EU countries.
5. In terms of personal contacts and living experience,
the Ukrainians are more familiar with the Customs Union
countries than the EU. Respondents who visited the EU
countries are more prone to support Ukraine’s accession
to the EU than those who did not visit them. Similarly,
those who visited the Customs Union countries are
keener to support Ukraine’s accession to the Customs
Union than those who have never travelled there.
However, visiting the EU makes it attractive for more
than two-thirds of travellers, while visiting the Customs
Union – for only half.
The poll results lead to a conclusion that more
attractive image of the EU, compared to that of the
Customs Union, has been largely shaped under the
influence of mass media.
6. When assessing the effects of Ukraine’s integration
with the EU, positive expectations prevail: possibility
of a visa-free travel across the EU countries; perfection
of the judicial system; access to advanced technologies;
modernisation of enterprises; access to financial resources
for economic development; enhancement of the rule of
law; reduction of unemployment; creation of new working
places. Drain of skilled manpower to the EU countries
and deterioration of relations with Russia were among
the negative effects most frequently mentioned by the
respondents.
Among the effects of Ukraine’s accession to the
Customs Union, the respondents mentioned both positive
(unification of the fraternal peoples; restoration of
disrupted economic ties, free trade between countries of
the Customs Union; improvement of relations with Russia;
access to cheap energy resources; preservation of culture,
traditions, moral values; discounts for goods and services
from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan), and negative factors
(dependence on Russia; Russia’s influence on internal
processes in Ukraine; a step back in political, socioeconomic
development; drifting apart from the EU).
Comparing the conditions for innovative development
of Ukraine, its transformation into a country with
developed economy, social and cultural sector, a relative
majority of Ukrainians polled preferred the EU.
A relative majority (41%) of those polled believe that
they will gain personal benefits from accession to the EU
(26% – will lose). The number of those who believe that
they will win from accession to the Customs Union is
equal to the number of those thinking they will lose.
7. Supporters of the EU membership usually give
economic reasons to explain their position, but also refer
to social prospects and social changes set to take place
in Ukraine following its accession to the EU, as well as
facilitation of travel to the EU countries for Ukrainian
citizens.
The motives for standing against the EU membership
fall into following groups: cultural and mental gap between
Ukraine and the EU countries; inequality of partnership
(“Ukraine will be dependent on the EU”); and the EU’s
uncertain future.
Cultural and mental kinship is clearly the main reason
to support membership in the Customs Union. The next
important motives are economic benefits and stability.
The main motives for being against the accession to the
Customs Union include inequality, Russia’s domination,
danger of losing Ukraine’s independence, lack of prospects
and backwardness of the union.
8. According to those polled, corruption, low level of
economic development, slow pace of reforms, issues in
the field of democracy are the factors that stand on the
way of Ukraine’s integration with the EU. Only Ukraine’s
integration with the EU, as the majority believes, may
impede Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union.
European integration, however, would mean meeting
tough requirements put forward by the EU, while Ukraine’s
accession to the Customs Unions would not require the
fulfillment of such requirements.
9. 42% of citizens support signing of the Association
Agreement between the EU and Ukraine, while 33% are
against it. One of the main motives for support is that the
Agreement will mark the start of an accession process to
the EU. At the same time, only 30% of respondents are
familiar with the content of the Agreement.
Assessing the effects of the Association Agreement,
respondents often note its positive effects on most aspects
of life. Only with regards to prices for goods and services,
the proportion of those who expect a negative effect
slightly exceeds the proportion of those who believe that
the effect will be positive.
10. Adherents of accession to the EU and adherents
of accession to the Customs Union substantially differ
in their socio-demographic and social features. The
former are mainly people of younger and middle age,
residents of the West and Centre, Ukrainian-speakers,
people with high education and relatively high income and
voters of the opposition parties; the latter are generally
elderly people, residents of the South and East, often
Russian-speakers with low education and income, voters
of the Party of Regions and of the Communist Party.
RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2013 • 111