RUSSIA THE EURASIAN CUSTOMS UNION AND THE EU COOPERATION STAGNATION OR RIVALRY?

PUBLIC OPINION
Internet as a source of information on the EU and
the Customs Union plays an important role for younger
respondents. The role of print media and state radio,
however, decreases as the respondents’ age goes down
(coupled with a growing importance of FM radio stations).
In general, the youngest age group tends to be less
influenced by information coming from TV channels.
In fact, this also shows a general role played by media
in shaping the consciousness of different age groups not
only with regard to the EU or the Customs Union.
Factors affecting Ukraine’s accession
to the EU and the Customs Union
According to Ukrainians, corruption (80%), low
level of economic development, insufficient pace of
reforms (78%), and problems in the field of democracy
(70%) are the main factors hindering Ukraine’s
integration in the EU (Diagram “Do the following factors
hinder Ukraine’s integration in the EU?” ).
As regards the difference between the Ukrainian and
European cultural development, such factors as language
barriers and geopolitical (historic, cultural) affinity with
Russia were rarely mentioned (40% and 38%, respectively).
Furthermore, a proportion of those who do not consider
that these factors may hinder Ukraine’s membership in the
EU is greater than the proportion of those who do.
According to the majority (53%), only Ukraine’s
integration with the EU would hinder Ukraine’s accession
to the Customs Union. A majority of respondents (51-60%)
believe that neither corruption, low level of economic
development, insufficient pace of reforms nor problems in
the field of democracy would prevent Ukraine from joining
the Customs Union. In other words, while there are several
tough requirements standing in the way of gaining EU
membership, Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Unions
would not require the fulfillment of such requirements.
(Diagram “Do the following factors hinder Ukraine’s
accession to the Customs Union?”).
Targeted policy on the part of Ukraine’s leadership,
however, could play a decisive role in the making of
Ukraine’s final choice on integration. However, citizens
are more prone to believe that in reality the Ukrainian
authorities are not leading the country either towards the
EU or to the Customs Union (27%); another 20% are
certain that the authorities are pushing for integration in
both directions; a similar percent of respondents could
not answer this question. Only 22% believe that the
authorities are leading the country to the EU, and 10% – to
the Customs Union (Diagram “How do you perceive the
policy pursued by Ukraine’s leadership?”).
Effects of accession to
the EU or the Customs Union
Positive expectations prevail among the respondents
when assessing effects of the EU integration for
Ukraine: possibility of visa-free travel to EU countries
(38%), perfection of the judicial system (26%), access
to advanced technologies, modernisation of enterprises
(23%), access to financial resources for economic
development (22%), enhancement of the rule of law (21%),
reduction of unemployment, creation of new working
places (21%). Negative effects include drain of skilled
manpower to the EU countries (24%) and deterioration of
relations with Russia (22%) 7 (Diagram “What effects will
Ukraine’s integration to the EU bring for the country?”).
Among positive effects of joining the Customs
Union, the respondents mentioned: unification of the
7
Reported by 20% and more respondents.
fraternal peoples (31%), restoration of disrupted economic
ties, free trade between countries of the Customs Union
(30%), improvement of relations with Russia (23%),
access to cheap energy resources (22%), preservation
of culture, traditions, moral values (21%), discount for
goods and services from Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan
(20%); among the negative effects: dependence on
Russia, Russia’s influence on internal processes in Ukraine
(31%), a step back in terms of political, socio-economic
development, a return to the USSR (27%). Drifting away
from the EU (32%) was another negative impact of joining
the Customs Union (Diagram “What effects will Ukraine’s
accession to the Customs Union bring for the country?”),
considering the fact that an overwhelming majority (67%)
of respondents who gave this answer support Ukraine’s
accession to the EU (and only 21% – are against it).
A relative majority of respondents (48%) believe that
Eastern European countries that joined the EU have gained,
rather than lost from it (23%). One may assume that this
opinion has also influenced the respondents’ assessment of
possible effects of Ukraine’s accession to the EU (Diagram
“Do you agree with the following statements…?”).
When it comes to creation of the Customs Union with
Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, a relative majority (37%)
believe that those countries have gained, rather than lost
from gaining membership there (28%). However, far
fewer respondents think that Customs Union members
have gained from joining than there are those who believe
that Eastern European countries which joined the EU
made the right choice. There is no prevailing opinion as
to whether Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union will
help it cope with the crisis: 37% of respondents believe so,
36% disagree.
Assessing the effects that Ukraine’s accession to the
Customs Union will have on different aspects of life, a
relative majority of respondents expect positive changes
to the national economy (44%), education, science
and technology (38%), personal income (35%), prices
(34%), unemployment rate (34%). Meanwhile, a relative
majority of those polled expect no positive change to
the environment (41%), efficiency of current leadership
(37%), development of the housing and utilities sector,
roads, infrastructure (34%), and social stratification (33%).
Roughly an equal proportion of respondents reported
positive effect/no effect for the quality of foodstuffs and
negative effect/no effect for democracy and corruption
levels (Diagram “What effects do you expect from
Ukraine’s accession to the Customs Union?”).
Citizens seemed rather sceptical towards prospects
of lower prices on imported gas from Russia:
12% – Russia will significantly reduce the price for a
long period without any additional conditions
20% – Russia will significantly reduce the price in
exchange for Ukrainian gas transportation system
11% – Russia will insignificantly reduce the price only
for a few years and without any additional conditions
24% – Russia will insignificantly reduce the price in
exchange for the Ukrainian gas transportation system
21% – Russia will never reduce the gas price for
Ukraine.
When comparing the conditions in the EU and the
Customs Union for Ukraine’s innovative development
and transformation into a country with economic,
social and cultural sector development, 42% of those
polled preferred the EU membership, with only 27%
in favour of joining the Customs Union.
RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №4-5, 2013 • 107