e_Paper 1-12-2016

16
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 1, 2016
DT
Feature
Population Growth:
Boon or Bane? A Case in Bangladesh
• Chowdhury Hasanul Panna
The overwhelming
population density of our
country has always been
a matter of great concern
for our economic development.
However, at the same time,
skilled manpower is considered
a resource for a country like
Bangladesh as it plays a key role in
different development sectors and
is critical in boosting a country’s
economy. But what happens if the
population pressure is too high
and exerts excess pressure on
natural resources?
The classical debate whether
population growth is beneficiary
or detrimental to development
has been prevalent through
centuries. In the Eighteenth
century a British reverend and
political economist Thomas
Robert Malthus first proposed
a reverse relationship between
population growth and
development. According to him,
population growth must outstrip
resource base to support that
burgeoning population at some
point, which is popularly known
as Malthusian trap. Therefore,
he suggested population growth
must be checked in order to
prevent poverty, famine or
inequality of wealth distribution
in the society.
Over the course of Nineteenth
and Twentieth century the
Malthusian belief gained ground
around the world, especially
in developing countries like
Bangladesh, India and China.
As they were among the major
food deficit countries and had
been plagued by recurrent
famines and poverty, Malthus
as well as neo-Malthus devotee
like Lester Brown, Paul Ehrlich
argued these countries should
prioritize restricting population
growth rather than expanding
production. They concluded
that development growth will
ultimately fail to catch up to
population growth.
However, there are other
theories from both economic left
and economic right, as well as
empirical evidences that don’t
coincide with this view. The other
school of thought viewed growing
population as an opportunity for
economic development. Ester
Boserup, a Danish economist
presented her argument
regarding population, argued that
population pressure leads to the
invention of modern agricultural
practices and this was also
evident in ancient civilizations.
Women’s role in agriculture and
rural economy brought changes
in the social organization of
the society with more women
directly involved in agricultural
production, which ultimately led
to downward adjustments in their
fertility rate after a period of high
population growth.
Photos: Bigstock
Now the question is whether
Malthusianism really holds water
in Bangladesh or it’s theoretical
mumbo jumbo. No other things
have had such a direct influence
to raising output than population
growth. Interestingly, growing
population act as consumers
too. Farmers reengineered the
production process to sustain
with the population growth and
to raise the level of productivity
or income for ensuring the
household survival. New
technologies are introduced as
well as labour input is raised to
match the productivity.
After independence, the
population of Bangladesh was
around 75 millions, whereas in
2016 it is about 160 millions.
Though current population is
twice as much as it was in 1971,
Bangladesh has appropriated
food security compared to
1971. Our country has made a
tremendous success over the
past few decades to ensure food
security for its population. High
population density with no new
land for cultivation, our existing
croplands have been used more
efficiently by reducing the fallow
period, introduction of high
yield hybrid crops, crop rotation
system, land management, and
developed irrigation system.
Moreover, Bangladesh is in such a
demographic dividend situation
where almost 11 people are
capable workforce out of every
15. So, there are available inputs
of labour, which can increase the
output as well.
In developing countries like
Bangladesh it has been observed
that Malthusian crisis is waiting,
given extreme pressures on
land and impoverished agrarian
sector. Yet, the diversification
of livelihood created smallscale
income generating source.
Population growth increases
the mouth to feed that directly
creates the demand or market
for the consumption. But if a
society fails to manage it properly,
poverty will increase which will in
turn create a Malthusian trap.
The response of population
growth varies from country to
country and locality to locality
on the basis of their successful
intensification of production.
Considering Bangladesh’s
case, significant increase in
the agricultural production
from 1950 to 1986 through the
intensification process helped
to lower the percentage of the
population below the poverty line
during this period.
Taking all the theories into
account it is quite obvious that
neither model fit exactly in
Bangladesh. Innovations such
as tube well irrigation, high
yielding crop varieties, and
other technologies have meant
that Bangladesh proved selfsufficiency
in food production.
Boserup, however, agree with
Malthus that extreme population
growth may have an adverse
effect on development. Keeping
this in mind, Bangladesh has
succeeded to lower population
growth and still has the
tremendous opportunity
to increase the agricultural
production even further. •
This article was co-authored
by the students of MDS,
Dhaka University.