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Command Red Team

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Introduction to the <strong>Command</strong> <strong>Red</strong> <strong>Team</strong><br />

(1) Plans and Operations. The command red team supports crisis action<br />

planning (CAP), deliberate planning, and operations assessment by helping identify<br />

vulnerabilities, opportunities, and faulty or unstated assumptions; helping ensure all<br />

aspects of the operational environment (OE) are fully understood; and critically<br />

reviewing strategies, operational concepts, estimates, plans, and orders. <strong>Red</strong> team<br />

products can also include wild card or low probability/high impact analysis to anticipate<br />

surprise and to mitigate risk.<br />

(2) Intelligence. The command red team complements intelligence efforts by<br />

offering independent, alternative assessments, and differing interpretations of<br />

information. This includes critical reviews of intelligence products, considering problem<br />

sets from alternative or adversarial perspectives, and helping contribute informed<br />

speculation when reliable information is lacking.<br />

g. In practice, command red team operations are categorized into four broad<br />

overlapping and mutually supporting areas of effort. When addressing a particular<br />

problem, red teams will usually pursue multiple areas of effort simultaneously. Directly<br />

or indirectly, all command red teams provide decision support, regardless of their primary<br />

focus.<br />

(1) Decision support promotes consideration of alternatives; challenges<br />

assumptions; stimulates critical and creative thinking; helps minimize biases,<br />

organizational influences, and analytical error; and provides alternative and cultural<br />

perspectives.<br />

(2) Critical review provides independent, alternative assessments of problem<br />

sets; critically reviews estimates, assessments, and interpretations; explores unseen<br />

threats and opportunities; and estimates the effects of potential wild card events. These<br />

effects can be categorized as unintended and intended and analyzed to determine varying<br />

degrees of those effects, such as second, third, or fourth order.<br />

Key Terms<br />

Second and Third Order Effects. A cascading series of multiple<br />

effects, anticipated and unanticipated, intended and unintended, with<br />

potentially significant positive and/or negative impacts on the<br />

operational environment, that result from an action. These effects then<br />

become the causes of new effects.<br />

Wildcard Events. Unanticipated circumstances, not necessarily related<br />

to planned actions or occurring within the operations area, that<br />

complicate execution of the plan.<br />

Critical Review. An independent examination of a product by a<br />

disinterested party with the object of uncovering logical fallacies,<br />

biases, and evidential shortfalls, or evaluating a wider range of<br />

potential conclusions.<br />

I-3

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