Command Red Team

Red Team Challenges
of stepping away and holistically assessing the problem and independently developing its
own set of evidence, assumptions, and conclusions.
(11) Hidden Assumptions. All analysts and planners base their thinking on
hidden assumptions, historical analogies, and paradigms that exist below the level of
conscious thought. In many cases, these cognitive foundations are never tested for
validity or relevance. Hidden assumptions can introduce unintended bias into analytical
efforts. In addition, individuals who are unaware of their hidden assumptions may
overlook or deny new information that should prompt a reassessment of their analytical
foundations. The red team’s outside vantage point can help it identify implicit
assumptions that others may not be aware of and suggest they be made explicit and
systematically examined.
(12) Assuming Away the Problem. When evaluating some problem sets,
planners and analysts may adopt assumptions, or problem framing, that make the problem
“solvable.” One red team role is to remind staff that some assumptions, however
convenient, may actually be invalid, and some problem sets actually may not be solved
without first changing conditions and allocating additional assets.
(13) Overly Confident or Overly Pessimistic. Some problem-solving efforts
may begin with the presumption that success, or failure, is the preordained outcome.
Previous experience with the problem at hand can condition analysts, planners, and
decision makers to anticipate one outcome or the other, and to interpret information and
assessments in this light. The red team can counter such mindsets by suggesting
historical analogies and using actual historical examples to broaden thinking and
challenge the use of false analogies through alternative analysis and historical precedent.
(14) Failure to Make the Call. Understanding the OE is often more dependent
on the quality of analysis than the volume of information on hand. Past a certain point,
additional information may improve confidence in an assessment without actually
improving the accuracy of the assessment. When analysts and decision-makers hesitate
to draw definitive conclusions based on available information, the red team may circulate
its own independent assessment, based on informed speculation, to re-energize the
analytical effort. By attacking the red team’s speculative strawman, the staff essentially
uses the information it has on hand to test hypotheses and draw conclusions.
(15) Elegance vice Insight. Persuasive arguments and repetition of
conventional wisdom can, in some venues, be more convincing than reasoned analysis.
An eloquent or dominating individual may be able to use persuasive rhetorical arguments
or force of personality as a substitute for reasoned analysis, swaying others to bypass
regular processes and adopt the individual’s position. Red teams should be prepared to
use contrarian techniques to counter the human tendency to assume well-expressed
conclusions are based on strong analysis.
III-5