Polar Bear
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III. Management Goals and Criteria<br />
F. Uncertainty, Assumptions, and the Need for Adaptive Feedback and<br />
Management<br />
The links between the tiers of criteria in this<br />
framework are based on our current understanding<br />
of polar bear demography and threats, which is<br />
incomplete. Thus, in deriving demographic criteria,<br />
assumptions and uncertainty about the demographic<br />
processes (such as regarding Allee effects), the<br />
means and variances of the survival and reproductive<br />
rates, the mechanism and magnitude of densitydependence,<br />
and the role of density-independent<br />
drivers of change give rise to uncertainty about the<br />
demographic criteria. Likewise, the derivation of<br />
threats-based criteria is affected by various types<br />
of uncertainty, such as: uncertainty regarding the<br />
nature, mechanism, and magnitude of the various<br />
threats; uncertainty about the behavioral responses<br />
of polar bears to changing conditions in the marine<br />
ecosystem, such as prey base, denning conditions,<br />
and other effects of climate change; uncertainty in<br />
the trajectory of sea ice as driven by climate change;<br />
and uncertainty in climate forecasts themselves. We<br />
recognize there are other gaps in knowledge that<br />
add to scientific uncertainty. Even if there is strong<br />
policy certainty about the fundamental criteria, the<br />
demographic and threats-based criteria might be<br />
less certain, because of the scientific uncertainty<br />
inherent in their derivation. We also acknowledge<br />
policy uncertainty in the establishment of the<br />
fundamental criteria themselves.<br />
The standards established in this Plan, however,<br />
meet the statutory requirements of the MMPA and<br />
ESA and will result in conservation and recovery,<br />
even in the face of the uncertainties described<br />
above. To achieve the statutory requirements in the<br />
face of uncertainty, we needed to err on the side of<br />
conservation and recovery of polar bears, possibly<br />
at the cost of other fundamental goals. If and when<br />
uncertainties are resolved, it is more likely than<br />
not that the conservation and recovery criteria<br />
can become less demanding, allowing even better<br />
achievement of the other goals.<br />
For these reasons, this Plan should be viewed as<br />
dynamic, not static, and the criteria should be<br />
revised over time as new data are acquired and<br />
critical scientific and policy uncertainties are<br />
reduced or resolved. The fundamental criteria could<br />
be revised if policy insights arise. Depending on<br />
the nature of any changes that may be made in the<br />
fundamental criteria, the demographic criteria may<br />
change. Further, even if the fundamental criteria<br />
do not change, the demographic criteria may be<br />
fine-tuned as new scientific information increases<br />
our understanding of polar bear population dynamics.<br />
The threats-based criteria will likely be subject<br />
to revision as new data help us understand the<br />
nature of the current and emerging threats and<br />
the responses of polar bear populations to them.<br />
Any changes to the demographic and threats-based<br />
criteria will remain founded in the fundamental<br />
criteria.<br />
It is the intent of this Plan to use an adaptive<br />
management approach to revise and update the<br />
fundamental goals, conservation criteria, and<br />
recovery criteria, as well as various assumptions<br />
underlying our analyses, as new scientific and policy<br />
information becomes available that demonstrates<br />
such revisions are appropriate. By using such an<br />
adaptive feedback approach, we will be able to<br />
identify triggers for such revisions to conservation<br />
and recovery criteria and, therefore, maintain<br />
transparency and support for any modifications.<br />
USFWS<br />
<strong>Polar</strong> <strong>Bear</strong> Conservation Management Plan 39