GLOBAL INVESTOR 2.13 — 10 MIGRATION GOOD OR BAD? MOBILE POPULATIONS Throughout history, migration has always been the most important driver of human progress and dynamism. Indeed, economic evidence indicates that migration helps economies, both in the developed and developing world. Yet arguments around migration are often driven by fear rather than facts. Ian Goldin brings a nuanced view to a complex topic. TEXT Ian Goldin, director, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford
GLOBAL INVESTOR 2.13 — 11 We live in an era of two competing narratives. The first suggests that migrants are flooding across our borders, and that they are stealing jobs and eroding our country’s social fabric in the process. Alternatively, the second argues that in spite of minor short-term dislocations, international migration is a boon: it generates innovation and dynamism while fueling long-term economic growth. My view is that both of these caricatures are too simplistic. The costs of migration are felt in the short term and are local, so they have real social and political consequences, while the benefits are more diffuse and longer term. As with debates on trade, where protectionist instincts tend to overwhelm the longer-term need for more open societies, the core role that migrants play in economic development is often overwhelmed by defensive measures to keep migrants out. The economic evidence is clear: migration helps economies, both in the developed and developing world. As is the case with trade and in the realm of the free flow of ideas, shutting ourselves off from each other is harmful. More people, more borders Globally, the estimated 231 million migrants in the world make up about 3% of the world’s population. Before passports became widely adopted about 100 years ago, and particularly in the age of mass migration of the 19th century, up to one-third of parts of Europe emigrated and over a quarter of the population of the USA were immigrants. While the share of our societies that are migrants may well be lower today than in previous centuries, the number of migrants has certainly grown. In part, this reflects the fourfold increase in the number of independent countries over the past 100 years. This proliferation means that people who previously moved within a country – such as the Soviet Union – are now recorded as migrants. But not only has the number of countries quadrupled over the past century, so too has the number of people to more than seven billion people. More borders and more people result in more migrants, even if their relative contribution to our populations or economies declines. At the end of 2012, three out of four migrants live in a small group of 24 countries, with the USA being the most significant home for migrants. Approximately 70 million migrants have migrated from one developing country to another, and approximately 65 million have gone from developing to richer countries, with about 55 million migrants having moved between the different OECD countries, and a rapidly growing number – currently around 20 million – having left the OECD for emerging markets, where job opportunities are multiplying most rapidly. The European Union is the world’s largest experiment with visa-free labor migration. Even though emigration from comparatively less rich countries such as Romania and Poland was substantial, Germany, Italy and the UK were both leading sources and leading recipients of migration. The main lesson from Europe is how few people migrate, with migration levels seldom much higher than those in the periods when greater restrictions applied. Given the levels of youth unemployment of over 50% in Greece and Spain, it is remarkable that so few young people have migrated. This highlights how the arguments around migration are often driven by fear rather than facts. Opportunities regarding employment as well as housing and other key determinants of demand are at least as important as the supply-side push factors that contribute to migration. Why do they go? It is dangerous to generalize about migration. Of the annual flow of around 15 million migrants, most fit into one of four categories of Ian Goldin is Professor and Director of the Oxford Martin School and Professor of Globalization and Development at the University of Oxford. This article draws on his widely acclaimed book “Exceptional People: How Migration by Princeton University Press in 2012. cross-border movement: economic, student, social and refugee/asylum. There are around 5 million economic migrants each year. Highskill migrants bring special talents or training across borders to fill gaps in the native workforce. Low-skill migrants tend to fill shortages in physical labor or jobs that are less desired by the native labor force. About 3.5 million students migrate each year. While some countries, such as the UK, insist that students leave, others such as Australia and the USA have gained talent by allowing certain students to stay. For example, 68% of foreign students who received doctorates in the USA in 2000 were still there five years after graduation. Social and family reasons account for about 2 million migrants a year, as individuals and families aim to be reunited with loved ones. This is most common in the nations built largely by more recent generations of immigrants (the USA, Canada and Australia) as well as the former colonial empires (especially the United Kingdom and France). Conflict and persecution push people from their homes and across borders. Refugee and asylum seekers account for an average of about two million migrants per year. At the end of 2012 there were 15.4 million officially recognized refugees worldwide, with 80% of these refugees hosted by developing countries, up from 70% ten years ago. It is impossible to know how many undocumented migrants there are in the world, but in the USA the estimates are that there are about 11 million out of a total number of around 50 million migrants, or about 22% of the total. By the mid-1990s, more than 30% of documented migrants into the USA were highly skilled. Similar trends exist in Europe. Germany launched a “green card” program in 2000 to entice workers to fill gaps in labor, particularly in healthcare and information technology. Concurrently, France worked to attract scholars, scientists and computer professionals. As a result, the percentage of skilled migrants into EU countries climbed from 15% in the early 1990s to 36% in the >
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