BusinessDay 21 Sep 2017

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Thursday 21 September 2017 10 BUSINESS DAY C002D5556 COMMENT CHRISTOPHER AKOR Chris Akor, a First Class graduate of Political Science, holds an MSc in African Studies from the University of Oxford and is BusinessDay’s Op-Ed Editor christopher.akor@businessdayonline.com One of the characteristic of the Nigerian state is its resort to brute force and deadly violence to suppress legitimate expression of frustration and dissent. Remember Ken Saro Wiwa and his Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP)? They tried to press for “political autonomy to participate in the affairs of the Republic as a distinct and separate unit” and the “right to the control and use of a fair proportion of economic resources for Ogoni development” in the 1990s and what was the result? The Nigerian government responded to MOSOP’s demand with a brutal crackdown and, ultimately, decapitated the leadership of the group. Many towns in the region do not even have as much as a police posts, but security forces – the army, police and navy – are constantly deployed to protect oil installations that dot the region. Repeating mistakes of the past These security forces constantly engage in torture and extra judicial killings of people in the communities and are rightly viewed as henchmen of a distant government concerned primarily with securing the oil and gas facilities and installations scattered across the regions on which the Nigerian economy, and more particular, the Nigerian federation, depends. Even with the return to democratic governance in 1999 with the attendant freedom of expression it guarantees, the Nigerian state was still unwilling to listen to any legitimate agitation and was determined to employ maximum force to crush any form of dissent and protect. Gradually and with time, non state actors have come to understand that the only language the Nigerian government understands is that of force. Thus, by 2005, violence became the chief means by which power and resources were negotiated in the Niger Delta region. Consequently, the loci of power shifted from community elders – a group the government and particularly the multinational oil companies found expedient to negotiate with and settle to quieten agitations – to militant youth groups who have been using violent means to successfully challenge the legitimacy of the Nigerian state. The only snag is that when these youth groups took up arms, the military that is quick to crush peaceful dissent and protests, proved incapable of suppressing them when armed. I think Nigerians need to be worried about their armed forces that, recently, only specialises in winning battles involving unarmed civilians and groups. When they have faced armed groups, the outcome hasn’t been flattering They consequently used the instrumentality of violence to successfully threaten the economic survival of the Nigerian state and consequently negotiate an amnesty programme, in 2009, with the Nigerian state, worth billions of dollars and set the precedence for violent confrontation as the only viable means of resolving disputes with the state. Almost at the same time the government was negotiating peace terms with the dreaded Niger Delta militants, it unleashed the army on another extremist but largely peaceful group – Boko Haram – actively proselytising in Borno state. The army and police pursued a brutal, deadly and illegal crackdown on the group that peaceful elements within the group were either wiped out or lost their voices and the apostle of extreme violence and terror – Shiek Ibrahim Shekau – and his like took over. As usual, the moment Boko Haram took up arms the Nigerian army became scarred and could no longer confront them as it did when they weren’t armed. The comment is free Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com Nigerian government has sought and got various international support, formed a multilateral force, and used mercenaries but is still unable to comprehensively defeat the insurgency. But alas, the Nigerian state has learnt nothing from such bitter experiences and has continued to use crude violence and force to respond to peaceful agitations. For instance, in December 2015, the Nigerian Army mercilessly mowed down close to 500 members of the Shiite sect in Zaria and destroyed their leader’s house and shrines just for blocking the convoy of the Army Chief. The Human Rights Watch (HRW) was later to declare that the Nigerian army unjustifiably killed more than 300 members of the Islamic Movement of Nigeria (IMN) and secretly buried them. That assertion was later corroborated by the Kaduna state government, which even put the figure of those killed higher than the HRW. The violence against the largely peaceful sect has continued unabated and the leader of the sect - Sheikh Ibraheem El-Zakzaky, his wife and other members has been in government detention unlawfully since their arrest in 2015. Feeling lucky, the Army has now extended its murderous crackdown to the largely peaceful but extremist Indigenous people of Biafra (IPOD) group. The unlawful killings started since last year but have now intensified with the army’s operation Python Dance 2. By declaring a largely peaceful group a terrorist organisation, proscribing an en- Don’t lose the plot – agriculture in the right context tire people’s right to free speech and association, and deliberately provoking them to violence, the Nigerian government is steadily and quickly pushing the group to embrace violence. The unspoken message to these groups that are continually being massacred and mowed down by the army is that peaceful demonstrations or protests never pay. The only chance they have of being taken seriously is by engaging in armed and violent confrontation with the state. The only problem is that when these groups do take up arms, the army often doesn’t have the capability to stop them. We have good examples in the Niger Delta militants and Boko Haram. But the government may be lucky again. Unlike the Niger Delta militants who had Nigeria by the balls and the Boko Haram militants motivated by extremist ideology, the motivation for the current Biafran secessionist movement appears to be largely economic and is unlikely to survive a brutal crackdown. However, the crackdown will be at the expense of Nigeria’s unity! Finally, I think Nigerians need to be worried about their armed forces that, recently, only specialises in winning battles involving unarmed civilians and groups. When they have faced armed groups, the outcome hasn’t been flattering. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline.com DAYO ODUWOLE Oduwole is an Investment Banking Professional writing in from Lagos. He writes via: oladayo@cefmr.com Here is something you’ve probably not heard regarding agriculture in Africa: African farmers are old. Think about it for a second. Do you know anyone that owns a farm? What is the age of this person? According to the United Nations Development Programme (“UNDP”) dataset, the average Kenyan farmer is 60 years old. In Nigeria, farmers are about 54 years old. Life expectancy at birth in Kenya is 62 years and 53 years in Nigeria, comparing the average age of farmers to life expectancy at birth, it is easy to conclude that African farming has a demographical problem. A new reality television show has been airing in East Africa entitled don’t lose the plot. It follows the lives of four young people (two pairs from Tanzania and Kenya) who have been allotted one acre of land for agricultural production and follows their activities over a nine-month period. The most profitable farmer at the end of the show wins an agricultural investment of $10,000. The show is supported by various institutions including the USAID. The objective of the programme is showcasing to the youth the activities involved in agriculture and perhaps encourage them to join the profession. The show’s producers want farming to be perceived as “cool”. Whether the most appropriate medium to achieve this objective is a reality TV show is to be seen. A fresh attempt at encouraging young people to engage in the profession and adjust the demographical problem is seemingly laudable. Demography is however not the only nor the biggest problem faced by African governments with regards to agriculture; low productivity is a frequently cited problem in African agriculture. Dercon and Gollin (2014) and Gollin et al (2014) show that agricultural productivity in Africa is only 28% of non-agricultural productivity. In effect, if productivity maximization was the objective of governments, agriculture should receive significantly less resources. In Nigeria, agriculture accounts for about 30% of employed adults, contrast with the United States of America where it only accounts for 1.3% of available jobs. Similarly, across the OECD, only a small percentage of the working populations work in agriculture. The corollary here is that a large part of the Nigerian working population is involved in a very low productivity sector. This point should alarm policy framers. A recent NOI poll in Nigeria showed that 90% of respondents held the view that “the agriculture sector is one of the most viable means of driving the nation’s economy positively and pulling it out the current recession”. Nigeria is now out of recession but the results of the poll buttress the nationwide view of agriculture and its importance in the economy. Whilst the general population can hold this view about the importance of agriculture, should SSA governments hold a similar view considering existing empirical evidence? Has agricultural policy in SSA already lost the plot? Agricultural policy in Nigeria like the rest of sub-Saharan Africa has revolved around the following four critical points; food security, poverty alleviation, economic growth and development and a balance of trade. Here is a very important and closely held secret, several studies have reviewed the evidence on the impact of agriculture on growth and development, the evidence is inconclusive on whether governmental focus on agriculture would deliver economic growth and achieve the three other critical objectives of governments. Should these governments continue to enact policy experiments in agriculture despite inconclusive evidence? The simple answer is NO. In Nigeria, there are multiple policies and strategies dealing with different crops, from rice to tomatoes to palm oil to cassava. Each policy and directive centered around the four critical points earlier mentioned. A critical home truth per Dercon and Gollin is that growth in agriculture will not come in isolation but from its interaction with the rest of the economy. A careful assessment of the relative benefits in each context of investing resources in agriculture versus other sectors is essential but largely lacking across the SSA region and more importantly in Nigeria. The following points remain true about agriculture in Africa; it remains the primary source of livelihoods for many households in sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these households operate their own farms; relatively few people are employed as agricultural wage workers and farm sizes are extremely small in most African production settings, with almost all land holdings under 5 hectares. In the UK, average farm size is 54 hectares, and in the USA, its 169 hectares. With clear and apparent problems in the sector it is understandable that the sector takes up resources from a policy formulation perspective and within public discourse. So, what is the way forward? Agriculture as private enterprise is profitable when conducted appropriately as is evident from some listed companies on the Nigerian stock exchange. The role of government should be restricted primarily to supporting and promoting private sector investment in Agriculture. Land tenor laws like; the land use act needs urgent revision to help facilitate easy land acquisition for agricultural purposes. More important is how the agricultural production interacts with other sectors of the economy. A concerted effort should be made to encourage industrial growth as this will drive demand for agricultural commodities as a source of inputs. In 60 years, there have been over fifteen different government schemes ranging from Operation Feed the Nation to the National Fadama project and several others in between, showing ineffectiveness of policy initiatives. These policies can be contrasted with the European common agricultural policy that was enacted in 1962 but has evolved along the way and remained coherent. The Nigerian government needs to admit that its agricultural policies need a thorough review and perhaps borrow a leaf from the “Don’t lose the plot” producers by taking a single problem and attempting to solve it. The focus for government agricultural policy should be how to grow private sector investment in agriculture and serve as an input provider for the industrial sector. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline.com
Thursday 21 September 2017 COMMENT UCHE UWALEKE Uche Uwaleke is the Head of Banking & Finance department at Nasarawa State University Keffi At a time global commodity price fluctuations have widened trade deficits and contributed to foreign exchange shortages, import Substitution Industrialization finds a lot of appeal for economies seeking to conserve foreign exchange and protect domestic industry from unfair practices such as dumping. Since the first National Development Plan (1962-68), Nigeria has adopted a number of measures such as tariffs, quotas and outright import bans for encouraging import substitution in order to curtail the mounting import bill and protect infant industries. The devaluation of the naira in 1986 following the Structural Adjustment Programme was an indirect step in this direction. Several years after, no thanks to policy somersaults and the porous borders, these measures have been largely unsuccessful at helping local producers regain market share. The collapse of the textile industry and attendant job losses in a country once famed as the leading textile hub in Africa tells the sad story. Food import bills have remained high with about C002D5556 BUSINESS DAY 11 comment is free Send 800word comments to comment@businessdayonline.com CBN’s 41 items and the rebirth of import substitution N1 trillion spent on import of items such as rice, wheat and many others as recently disclosed by Godwin Emefiele, the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor. Data from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture indicate that demand for rice in Nigeria reached 6.3 million metric tonnes in 2015, with only 2.3 million metric tonnes of that demand satisfied by local production. This local production shortfall left a gap of 4 million metric tonnes that was filled through importation. A 2016 study by FBN Quest, which highlighted the potentials in the country’s aquaculture industry, disclosed that Nigeria’s total annual fish demand was estimated at 2.7 million metric tonnes while only 30 per cent of this demand was met domestically, resulting in an annual spend of N125 billion on fish imports. According to a report by the Bank of Industry, Nigeria ranks as the second highest producer of tomatoes in Africa with over 200,000 farmers collectively growing over 1.5 million metric tonnes. Yet N11.7 billion is spent annually on the average to import processed tomato paste into the country. Nigerians reportedly spent USD2.71 and USD1.32 million in 2014 and 2015 respectively importing toothpick into the country! A country that used to be the world’s largest producer of palm oil now imports nearly 600,000 metric tonnes while Indonesia and Malaysia combine to export over 90 percent of global demand. Recently, Indonesia’s Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said in a statement issued to Reuters that his country was considering exchanging palm oil for crude oil with countries such To consolidate on these gains and further ramp up production of these commodities, the government should continue to work on providing the enabling environment. The large body of research on import substitution industrialization highlight political stability/Security, high literacy rate/skills level, use of fiscal incentives, access to low interest rate, functional infrastructure as critical success factors as Nigeria. Imagine that! Concerned by the huge import bill on commodities that could be produced locally amidst dwindling external reserves, the Central Bank of Nigeria in 2015, following the collapse of the crude oil price, introduced some policy measures to help conserve foreign reserves as well as facilitate the resuscitation of domestic industries. These involved restricting access to the official foreign exchange market with respect to import of 41 categories of items. Not surprisingly, the measure drew criticisms from many quarters including the Economist, a UK based magazine which published a scathing assessment of the policy in a report titled “Nigeria’s Currency: Toothpick Alert’’. What the author of that negative report failed to realize is that even Great Britain passed through this development phase. It was Dr. Ha-Joon Chang who provided evidence in his book, Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective, to show that the prescriptions for devel- oping countries such as liberalization of trade based on Washington Consensus in order to facilitate economic development were not followed by many developed countries in their own developmental experience. Britain and the United States for instance employed a mix of infant industry promotion and tariff barriers in earlier stages of development. So, kicking against any measure to promote domestic industry in Nigeria by a UK-based media outfit amounts to ‘kicking away the ladder’. Few months after the directive on 41 items was issued by the CBN, it has proved in many respects, to be the launch pad for the rebirth of import substitution in Nigerian as local manufacturers are regaining their production strength. In December 2016, the first indigenous toothpick and pencil manufacturing factory in Nigeria was commissioned in Akure with the capacity to generate more than 300 jobs when fully operational. The country’s palm oil production is equally gaining traction. As evidence, Presco Plc and Okomu Oil Palm Plc, two of Nigeria’s largest palm oil producers have witnessed significant improvement in earnings with associated uptick in share prices. In its 2017 interim half year result, Presco Plc revenue rose from N7.5 billion to N12.8 billion while Okomu Oil Palm Plc turnover jumped to N12.5 billion from N7.6 billion reported the previous period. While addressing a town hall meeting in Ibadan last July, attended by farmers, youths, women and other stakeholders in the agricultural sector, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, Chief Audu Ogbeh, had said that the country would be self sufficient in rice production by November this year resulting in a significant reduction in the price of the commodity. Considering the successes recorded in the CBN Anchor Borrower programme, there is every reason to believe him. The Minister also expressed confidence that self sufficiency in tomato paste production would be attained before the end of this year. The success of import substitution in local cement production especially since the CBN measure was introduced bears replicating in other sectors. To consolidate on these gains and further ramp up production of these commodities, the government should continue to work on providing the enabling environment. The large body of research on import substitution industrialization highlight political stability/Security, high literacy rate/skills level, use of fiscal incentives, access to low interest rate, functional infrastructure as critical success factors. The implementation of the Executive order on ease of doing business and patronage of locally made products would help. So also would lower interest rates which are supportive of domestic production. In the light of testimonies from local manufacturers and Entrepreneurs regarding the production of many of the 41 items marked ‘’not valid for forex’’ especially toothpicks, tomato paste, palm oil, poultry, fish, clothing, footwear, furniture and rice, the policy should be sustained by the CBN till the products are in a position to compete with foreign ones. Send reactions to: comment@businessdayonline.com Bolanle Ambode’s Novel Leadership in Lifting the Underprivileged ABDUL HAKEEM ABDUL LATEEF Dr Abdul Lateef is Honourable Commissioner, Lagos State Ministry of Home Affairs I grew up knowing that the first step to greatness is to admire greatness. Finding my way to the spotlight of public life however taught me that we owe our society the duty of celebrating greatness in a world where negativity has greater audience. This is the conviction with which I tell the world about the greatness I see in Mrs Bolanle Ambode. First Ladies in Lagos State from Senator Oluremi Tinubu, Dame Abimbola Fashola to Mrs. Bolanle Ambode have been of great blessings to the State. In her foresightedness, enthusiasm and dynamism, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, has bequeathed many landmark projects, most of which continue to yield fantastic results and benefiting millions of women and children up till today. These programmes such as “Spelling Bee Competition” and “One Day Governor” have been nurtured by succeeding first ladies to national prominence. The present First Lady, Mrs. Bolanle Ambode, however, is widening the scope of these programmes, increasing their acceptance, promoting participation and proliferating benefits, which are now having very visible impacts in social, economic and political land space of Lagos. Indeed, First Ladies in the State have proven to be highly indispensable and relevant in the current democratic dispensation. Thus, on Wednesday, 13th September, 2017, Lagosians had a glimpse of the future, when the First Family and Cabinet Members hosted the One Day Governor, Miss Zuffon Bukola and her Deputy, Miss Rosemary Ogidan, both of whom are young girls (an unprecedented feat in the annals of the programme), prompting His Excellency, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode, to remark that: “I believe Lagos will soon produce the first elected female governor in Nigeria.” However, I know of one individual who shares the same passionate view, but more religiously, our own First Lady, Mrs. Bolanle Ambode. She has every reason to feel that way because females are almost 50% of Nigeria’s population while youth (under 35) are over 75%. However, a vast majority of these groups are under-privileged. Indeed, Nigerians have had many First Ladies both at the federal and state levels. But the current First Lady of Lagos State, Mrs. Bolanle Ambode, is one with a difference. She is not only an epitome of humility but she is also a paragon of modesty with deep love and affection for the underprivileged people, particularly the rural dwellers who are the primary targets of her humanitarian initiatives. Right at the Central Primary School, Oba Akinjobi Way Ikeja on February 17, 2017, the First Lady flagged off distribution of 175,000 school shoes and socks, to children in Lagos State public primary school 1-3. The distribution of these items was never by mistake or accident. It was a conscious act and promise that was faithfully fulfilled in spite of the number of pupils and resources involved. The essence of school shoes must not be lost on us so soon if we can recall its devastating implications in our political misadventure of recent. This generous and motherly gift of shoes and socks are important and symbolic in a system where the shoe has become a mark of status while uniform has become a leveller. The provision of uniform shoes to all children of different backgrounds and status is indeed a creative strategy for the attainment of “Project Bright Steps” of the First Lady. One, disadvantaged parents are relieved of the cost of shoes as their children and wards return to school. Two, the pupils too are purged of envy, unnecessary show off, rivalry and segregation on the basis of foot wears. With a uniform clothe and shoe, the children are left to face their studies squarely with a high sense of equality. I must confess that it takes a great divine touch to embark on an ambitious project of this nature. It is only the chosen ones like our First Lady that can feel the obligation as a responsible and responsive mother of a nation to ensure our future leaders have all the supports in preparing them to fulfil their purpose. It is a rare demonstration of courage and empathy by a first lady to know and unequivocally point out that wearing shoe is not a luxury, but a necessity. Mrs. Bolanle Ambode deserves commendation for this singular charity of enormous benefits and psychological stability and courageous public admittance of eternal truism that wearing of shoe is truly not a luxury but a necessity in the current digital age. The far-reaching and thoughtful projects of the Lagos State First Lady are a clear testimony of her being a gift to humanity. The empowerment of widows in a system where women are overburdened with family upkeep in addition to child upbringing can only place her on the same pedestal with Melinda Gate, the wife of the world’s richest man, who is widely regarded as a thoughtful campaigner and works methodically to drive change without seeking the limelight. However, the uniqueness and effectiveness of the project of Mrs. Ambode on the widow lie in its extensive research leading to distinct categorization that determines and specifies appropriate needs of each group. After a careful analysis, the First Lady said at the occasion of her widow empowerment programme that “we realized that though all the widows need support, but the same type of assistance cannot work for everyone because of age differences and circumstances around them,” And working in line with the analysis, beneficiaries of her largesse were divided into three categories, one of them being those that require skill acquisition, these are relatively young widows. The second category comprises those that require equipment support to stabilize their businesses. The last category has widows that require financial assistance to expand their businesses. The use of research to come up with projects, define beneficiaries and determine appropriate methodology to reach the target groups sets the First Lady apart as somebody that is determined to make a difference. It also portrays her as somebody who believes in people ownership of their projects. She does not believe in forcing her ideas on people or deciding on projects just because of personal gains. Project impacts can only endure and be sustained when it is derived from priority needs of the beneficiaries that are fully carried along and made to own it but not from priority interests of the executors. I am more than convinced that Lagosians haven’t seen anything yet from the amiable First Lady of Lagos State. She has just begun like her husband just started the work of changing the face of Lagos. Mrs. Ambode too is currently changing the orientation of women, young children and the underprivileged. The First Lady has said and practically demonstrated she is prepared and willing to partner and support the initiatives of local non-governmental and community based organizations that share her vision. It is a great innovation to move forward and faster too. It is a leverage strategy that enhances and develops the capacity of the giver and the receiver organizations and their beneficiaries. Just this year, Mrs. Ambode extended her hand of cooperation, through the instrumentality of her non-government organization - Hope for Women in Nigeria Initiative (HOFOWEN), to Sebeccly Cancer Foundation to support cancer cases; Irede Foundation to provide prosthetic limb for children with mobility issues; Children Development Centre to support children with autism and Lydia Foundation to rehabilitate prostitutes. Note: the rest of this article continues in the online edition of Business Day @https://businessdayonline.com/
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