Sun-Earth-Man - PlasmaResources

38 SUN-EARTH-MAN: AMESH OFCOSMIC OSCILLATIONS
This result can be subjected to a statistical test, though the sample is rather
small. Mayaud gives two half-daily values of the aa index for each Greenwich
day. For the range of four days after the nine Eureka events the humber of aa
values thus amounts to 72. Statistically, the mean of these aa values, f,
= 29.13, and the standard deviation of their distribution, u, = 21.56, are
charactenstic parameters of this first group. They set oft against the
parameters of the second group formed by the nine annual means of
geomagnetic activity related to the years of the Eureka events: 2, =
18.66; cr, = 4.89. The statistical t-test evaluates whether the difference between
the means of both gmups is significant. The test yields f = 3.47 for 63 degrees
of freedom (do. As the first group is known and expected to have a higher
mean than the second group, the rules valid for single-sided distributions
apply: P < 0.0007. The probability P that this result has been produced by
random sampling is smaller than 1 in 1400. This points to a highly significant
difference between the aa indices in both groups in accordance with the
working hypothesis proposed above. When monthly means are chosen
instead of yearly means, the difference between both groups continues to
show highly significant results.
This example shows that significant results can emerge in very small
samples. If' so, this indicates strong relations that are of practical importance.
connections that only become-visible when thousands of cases are
investigated may be of theoretical interest; in practice, however, they are often
of negligible weight. Naturally, the relation between solar boundary events
and human creativity has to be corroborated by replications making use of new
data. In this respect, it is a significant that Suitbert Ertel has established a
reIation between human acts of creation in various fields of art and science,
and sunspot cycles of different length.4z His highly significant results,
corroborated by many replications, are based on a quite different, independent
approach and careful statistical analysis of large bodies of data. Unfortunately,
Gel's voluminous work has not yet been published.
As has been stated in the beginning, instability indicative of boundary states
is a pre-condition of creativity. Heavy geomagnetic storms that are linked to
solar instability events are themselves an expression of strong instability in the
Earth's magnetic field. It is not out of the question that this magnetic instability
may induce instability in the electric activity of the brain cells, evidenced in
electroencephaIogams, or of the autonomous nervous sy~tem.~' Certainly,
such instability cannot produce a creative potential other conditions of which
are not fulfillid. But ifthere is a creativepotential, it may be stimulated or
triggered by instability.
According to Arthur Koestler there is a remarkable form of blindness
which often prevents even an original thinker from perceiving the meaning
and significance - of his own discovery. It resembles an "anti-body reaction"
directed against new ideas irrespective of whether it is a new pattern created
by others or oneself. Kepler nearly threw away the elliptic orbits of planets;
for nearly three years he held the solutionin his hands without seeing it. After
the breakthrough of the new concept Kepler confessed: "The truth of Nature,
which 1 had rejected and chased away, returned by stealth through the
backdoor, disguising itself to be accepted. Ah, what a foolish bird I have been."
IV. CYCLESOFSOLAR ERUPTIONS 3 9
156 4.76 2.78 120 1.11
PERIOD INMONTHS
7
Fipm 16: Blackman-Tukey power spcrtrum of flar~-generated X-ray bursts equal tn or greater than class XI
observed 1970 to I962 by means 06 satellltc mstrumentatim The fquel?cy f of inveshgatrd cycle4 is rneasurrd ~n
rn~llicycles per sarnplingintelval of half a month. The urdlnate axis represcnls the relative vanance Vof thr respenive
frequencies. Periods of outstanding peaks, painting to cycles of flares, are iodKated on top ol the figure. The
signihrance of the deviation of prnmlnent peaks from the Markov red noise (R) can be ~valuatrd by means of the
confidenrelevelcu*esCL. Thpresult pmv~drs evldenceof cyclic features in the distribution ofenergetic solarflares
Koestlkr aptly remarks that the defence mechanisms which protect habits
against the intrusion of novelty account both for our mental inertia and mental
stability. It seems plausible that strong instability in the Earth's magnetic field,
that affects the basic electric conditions of brain functions, may release mental
instability which makes it easier to overcome mental inertia.
Inversely, unshaken inertia would prevail when the geomagnetic field keeps
quiet. There are examples that seem to point to such effects. IrPne Curie and
FredCric Joliot were talented physicists; they were awarded the Nobel prize
for the synthesis of new radioactive elements. On January 18, 1932, they made
an observation the significance of which they did not grasp. Thus, they missed
the discovery of the neutron, a fundamental subatomic particle. When the
young physicist Ettore Majorana, a disciple of James Chadwick, read the report
of the Joliot-Curies, he remarked sarcastically: "These fools, they have