Sun-Earth-Man - PlasmaResources

4 8 SUN-EARTH-MAN; A MESH OFCOSMIG OSCILLATIONS
represents intervals between consecutive ll-year maxima that reflect the
secular cycle. Mlnima of DM correspond to strong sunspot maxima and
inversely. The flat triangles indicate the calculated epochs of secular maxima
and minima based on the secular torque cycle. The data sets are in phase. An
evaluation of the totaI result for the years 300 to 1980 c onhs the high degree
of synchronism of the Glrissberg-data and the calculated torque epochs. A
Pearson-test yields the value 54.5 (1 degree of freedom; P 4 0.00001) for the
maxima, and 22.3 (1 degree of freedom; P < 0.00001) for the minima. When
subsets are formed, the results prove to be homogeneous. The torque wave
points to a secular sunspot minimum past 1990.
The extrema in the secular wave of IOT can be taken to constitute a smoothed
supersecular wave with a quasi-period of 391 years. This long wave points to
an imminent supersecular sunspot minimum about 2030.a There are
indications that secular and supersecular sunspot minima are related to
variations in climate. Thus a prolonged period of colder climate is about to be
initiated by the secular minimum past 1990, will reachits deepest point around
the supersecular minimum in 2030, and come to an end about 2070. A shorter
torque cycle of 31 years, based on an analysis of a cross-correlation function
of sunspots and IOT, made it possible to predict the end of the Sahelian
drought three years in advance. The forecast: "The next drought maximum is
to be expected about 2010. A humid period should already begin within 2 yr
and reach a first maximum about 1986", was published in 1983." There was
enough rain in the Sahelian countries in 1985 and still more in 1986. Geoffrey
Dean, whose negative review of forecasts based on planetary constellations
has been mentioned above, had received a preprint of this paper that also
contained the evaluation of the positive result of the forecasts of energetic
flares for the years 1979 to 1981 as well as the successful prediction of X-ray
bursts > X9 in 1982. He nevertheless declared that successful predictions
based on planetary configurations did not exist.
'
Vli. PLANETARY FQRCINGAND FLARE CYCLES 4 9
VII. PLANETARY FORCING AND FLARE CYCLES
Cycles of solar activity of medium wavelength, like the ll-year sunspot cycle,
are also related to IQT." But even such short cycles as those that emerged from
the spectral analysis of the distribution of energetic flares are connected with
IOT. Strong impulses of the torque are initiated when the planet Jupiter, the
centre of mass CM, and the Sun's centre CS are in Line (JU-CM-CS). There are
two types of JU-CM-CS events: those that are accompanied by a sharp increase
in orbital momentum and centrifugal motion of the Sun away from CM (JU-
CM-CSc), and those that coincide with a decrease in orbital momentum and
centripetal motion of the Sun toward CM due to prevailing gravitation (JU-CM-
CSg). These two different types can have different effects on the Sun and solarterrestrial
interaction. JU-CM-CSg events that can be related to the
investigated time series of energetic flares, covering the period 1970 to 1982,
occurred during 1970.02 and 1982.83. They formed a cycle with a period of
153.7 months.
Just this cycle and harmonics of it represent most of the variance in the flare
spectra discussed above.@ The most prominent amplitudes in Figures 16 and
17 point to the torque cycle itself, to the exact harmoni~s 4.8 months and 2.2
months with a neighbouring peak at 1.1 months, and-lo a strong amplitude
at 2.8 months, that seems out of sequence, since 2.4 months would be the
fitting harmonic between4.8 and 1.2 months. But the shift to 2.8 months seems
to be the result of the interference with another Rare cycle in this range,
regulated by tidal planets. Its mean period is 3.36 qonths. This value, when
combined with the 2.4 month harmonic of the torquecycle, yields a mean value
of 2.88 months which properly matches the strong amplitude at 2.8 months
in the flare ~pectzum.~'
This combination is consistent in so far as the torque harmonic of 2.4 months
is nearer to the interfering period of 3.36 months than the torque harmonic of
4.8 months. But this latter harmonic is also connected with the interfering
cycle. Calculation shows that the period of the 3.36-month cycle has a range
of variation of + 1.6 months. If it gets in phase with the torque harmonic of
4.8 months, which occurs at irregular intervals, asa rule highly energetic X-ray
bursts are released. This connection is of practical importance in assessing the
category of expected X-ray bursts in predictions. There is a gap between the
prominent amplihde related to the torque cycle of 154 months itself and its
higher harmonics of 4.8 months and beyond. This could be due to resonance
with the interfering oscillator, the period of which varies about 3.36 months.
Only the higher harmonics of the torque cycle are then expected to respond.
There is a wealth of papers that try to establish a relation between tidal
planets and sunspots. Critical authors stress that all tidal planets, when in
conjunction, could only raise a tide of a few millimeters on the Sun. But it
shouId be taken into consideration that the horizontal component of the tidal
forces could be of interest, as the Sun's gravity acceleration is 28 times that of
the Earth's. E. Oepik "has shown that the mean velocity of tidal currents on
the Sun can reach about one-third of tidal currents generated by the Moon on
Earth. This is not negligible as the plasma in the Sun is subject to
magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and turbulence. There are only few papers