Sun-Earth-Man - PlasmaResources

time series of X-ray bursts comprising the same sampling intewaIs of half a
month. The calculation based on the Burg-algorithm covers 312 data points
and 301 frequencies. The filter length of 82 coefficients is in accord with the
suggestion of most authors not to go beyond 30% of the number of data
pointsq5' The extreme sensitivity of the MEM can lead to spectra1 shifts or
spectrum instability, especially when the filter length is extended beyond 30
to 40% of the length of the time series. Experiments with different filter lengths
up to 40% show that the spectrum presented in Figure 17 is stable. There is
no shift in the outstanding frequencies. The MEM spectrum shows the same
prominent peaks at the same frequencies as in the Blackman-Tukey power
spectrum. A narrower sampling interval of !4 month does not change the
result.
It is a disadvantage of the MEM that an acknowledged reliability test of
spectra1 peaks does not yet exist. According to the simple and useful "rule of.
thumb'' expressed by Stuart et a1. ,52 a spectral peak is regarded to be significant
if it contains at leastthree computed points which deviate from the noise and
has a maximum two or three times greater than the surrounding noise level.
According to this standard the peaks in Figure 17 marked by period pointers
deviate significantly from the noise. As these are the same peaks as in the
Blackman-Tukey spectrum of Figure 16 that proved to be significant at
confidence levels going up to %%,;here is sufficient evidence supporting their
reality. A further replication is contributed by dividing the data set in klf. The
maximum entropy spectra for each half again set off the peaks around 4.8,2.8,
1.2, and I .I months; only the 156 months period is lost, as was to be expected.
V. PLANETARY CONTROL OF THE SUNS'S MOTION 43
V. PLANETARY CONTROL OF THE SUN'S MOTION ABOUT
THE CENTRE OF MASS OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM
The prominent cyclic features are consistently present in all spectra examined.
Thus, there are sufficient reasons to propose the working hypothesis that the
incidence of X-ray flares in the 1 to 8 A range shows a cyclic pattern. Where
do these flare cycles come from? As to predictions, this is a crucial question
because the analysis is based on the rather small time-span of 13 years. If there
are strong variations in the actual period of cycles, forecasts of flares and
connected terrestrial events will go astray if it is not clear which changes will
o'ccur. It will be shown that the prominent amplitudes in the spectra indeed
represent quasi-cycles with wide variations in their periods. The knowledge
of the mean period of such quasicycles is no real help in predictions. The 12year
sunspot cycle with a range of variation from 7 to 17 years is an example
of this. As long as it is not known how the cycle is regulated, there will be no
solid basis for predictions. Without a reasoned physical background to guide
selection, there is a severe risk of finding accidental patterns in diverse and
varied data sets. The statistical analysis of Fast data does not constitute a
reliable means to foresee future change in the data pattern. Thus, it is of both
practical and theoretical importance that the spectrum can be exactly related
to thk variation in astrophysical quantities and to calculable planetary
configumtions by an approach following the fundamental rule of Operations
res lrch that the behaviour of any part of a system has some effect on the
beKsyiour of the system as a whole. The results were tested by extended
forecast experiments described above.
The first process involved are impulses of the torque (IOT) in the Sun's
motion about the centre of mass of the solar system (CM) that were mentioned
already. They are induced by special heliocentric consteIIations of the giant
planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus,.and Neptune. Figure 18 shows the ecIiptic
positions of CM relative to the Sun's centre for 1945 to 1995. The heliocentric
representation and the line marking the limb of the Sun make it easy to see
whether CM is to be found above or below the Sun's surface; most of the time
it is on the outside of the Sun's body. The distance of both centres varies from
0.01 to 2.19 solar radii. It takes 9 to 14 years to complete one revolution. In
relation to the galactic centre only CM follows an elliptic path around the centre
of mass of the Milky Way system, whereas the Sun describes a very irregular
helix around the elliptic line of motion of CM. The planets' paths are still more
complicated. There is mutual interdependence. While the planets make the
Sun oscillate around CM, the Sun induces a still more intricate dance of the
planets about the centre of mass of the solar system. Newton was the first to
see this: "Since that centre of gravity is continually at rest, the Sun, according
to the various positions of the planets, must continually move every way, but
will never recede far from that ~entre."~ In 1928 Ludwig Zehnder " suspected
a connection of the Sun's motion with the 1 1-year sunspot cycle. Paul D. Jose "5
made a thorough computer analysis of this special relation in 1965.
Unforhnately, h~s predictions for the 11- year sunspot cycle No. 21, based on
his analysis, failed to be accurate.