Sun-Earth-Man - PlasmaResources

66
SUN-EARTH-MAN: A MESH OF COSMIC OSCILLATIONS
Figure 29 presents the deviation of annual mean values from the 50- year
mean of 337 Dobson units. A change of about 17 Dobson units corresponds to
a 5% change in ozone concentration. The epochs of JU-CM-CS constellations
are marked by flat triangles. As to the events 1967.8 and 1970, which are ody
separated by an interval of 2.2 years, the mean of both epochs is indicated. It
is together the epoch of the major solar instability event that started in 1968.
The JU-CM-CS epochs, which are related to periods of energetic flare activity,
also fit the strongest ozone deviations, as can be seen in Figure 29. In addition,
the phases n/2 and T radians (90" and 18W), that were conspicuous in the Sun's
rotation data, concur with secondary peaks. Small arrow heads point to these
phases. After the instability event starting in 1968 the pattern seems to have
changed. The epoch of JU-CM-CS in 1974 coincided with a minimum. If the
new pattern proves to be stable, the next minimum is to be expected in 1990.
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XII. COSMIC INFLUENCE ON WEATHER 6 7
MI. COSMIC INFLUENCE ON WEATHER
There has been a lot of controversy over whether or not the Sun's activity
influences weather on Earth Simple relationsh~ps discovered in the 1870's and
1880's vanished when exarn~ned more critically, or faded in the light of longer
records. A classical example is a marked correlation between the 11-year
sunspot cycle and the water level in Lake Victoria that seemed to imply a direct
connection between solar activity and rainfall in Africa. After the middle
192Ws, however, the pattern that included two sur~spot cycles vanished and
did not appear again. In add~tion, such ephemeral relationships were limited
to speclal regions and did not cover larger areas subjected to the same or a
similar climate. These d~scussions will perhaps enter a new stage now. The
following results cover more than a century and Iarge parts of the Northern
Hemisphere in a consistent way.
Figure 30 provides evidence of a strong connection of rainfall over central
Europe with JU-CM-CS epochs. The investigation is based on the mean of
yearly rainfa11 totals in mrn derived from observations of 14 German stations
by Baur." This homogeneous time series, supplemented by data from
"Berliner Wetterkarte", published by the Meteorological Institute of the Free
University of Berlin, covers the period 1851 to 1983. The 2-year running
variance s1 of these data was subjected to a Gaussian low-pass filter. Peaks in
the plot point to a strong contrast in the rainfall of consecutive years. Very wet
years are followed by very dry years or very dry years by very wet years,
whereas minima go along with little contrast in this respect. The x-axis
indicates the years of observation and the y-axis the smoothed variance v =
s'. It is obvious that the epochs of JU-CM-CS events marked by pointers show
a good correlation with peaks in the plot, whereas minima, designated by open
circles, coincide with phases .rr radians (180") in the middle between two
epochs that also can be looked at as second harmonics of cycles of consecutive
JU-CM-CS events. Only at the secular minimum in sunspot activity around
1900 the respective maxima are quite weak or even disappear.
This correlation is corroborated by a statistical analysis of the unsmoothed
2-year running variance of the German rainfall data presented irr Figure 31.
The JU-CM-CS epochs are marked by flat triangles and the phases .rr radians
(180"), the second harmonics, by open circles. The analysis evaluates the
significance of the difference between rneans,of the running variance of two
groups: Group 1 composed of the variance of years coinciding with JU-CM-CS
epochs and of the respective preceding year and following year; Group 2
comprising the variance of the years that concur with phases T radians (180")
and the respective preceding year and following year. The rainfall distribution
is Gaussian and free from Markov type persistence. Daily or monthly data
show some persistence patterns. These were eliminated, however, by the
formation of yearly means. Thus, the t-test may be applied. The Fisher-
Behrens formula, described in the gIossary, is to be used, as the variance iq:,
the test groups shows a significant difference. V
Group 1 yielded: number of data points n, = 46; mean f, = 13.46; standard
deviation s, = 15.25. The corresponding values in Group 2 are: n, = 48, 2, =