Issue 4 2018

industry news
11
Lumpy skin disease in cattle: from containment to elimination
EFSA has assessed the most effective strategies for eliminating lumpy skin
disease (LSD) now that the outbreaks in south-eastern Europe have been
contained.
It has published a report that gives advice on the ideal duration of vaccination
programmes to eliminate the disease, and looks at the probability that the
disease will reappear and at possible surveillance methods.
Outbreaks of LSD in the Balkan region fell dramatically by 95% from 7,483
in 2016 to 385 in 2017. In 2018 no outbreaks were reported in south-eastern
Europe, although one outbreak was reported in the European part of Turkey.
The report says that the more effective the vaccination is in protecting animals
against the disease – and the more herds are vaccinated – the shorter the
vaccination programme can be. For example, if the vaccination is effective for 80% of
vaccinated animals, a two-year programme with coverage of 90% of herds is sufficient.
The probability that LSD will reappear after a vaccination programme is mainly linked to the likelihood of infected
animals being introduced from neighbouring affected areas. Other factors examined in the report include the possible
persistence of the virus in vectors (such as ticks and insects) or in the environment.
The report also gives an overview of surveillance methods. These include measures for early detection of new cases
and how to demonstrate absence of disease. n
Horizon scanning – balancing opportunities with reality
Organisations have long recognised the need for medium- to long-term planning.
This remains ever more important if businesses want to take advantage of emerging
trends and be well-prepared for what changes and impacts these may bring. Horizon
scanning is a powerful technique used by some organishations to identify emerging
opportunities, potential threats and risks. Most are balancing the opportunities of
unprecedented scientific discovery and ground-breaking innovation with the realities
of a changing consumer, a harsher regulatory environment and emerging disruptive
business models.
PESTLE
A full horizon scan includes scanning for emerging issues in a political, economic,
societal, technological, legislative and environmental – sometimes shortened to PESTLE – point of view that may be an
opportunity or a threat to the organisation. In general, legislation only changes after a development in one of the other
PESTLE factors. For example, legislation does not change until a new technology has emerged or there is a shift in
consumer preference which needs to be regulated. Therefore, it is vital that regulatory horizon scanning is coupled with
looking for the true cause behind why a regulation may need changing.
Primary research – powerful tool
Very often, regulatory horizon scanning is undertaken by purely secondary research, looking at publicly available
information. But a very powerful tool is to perform primary research, identifying the leader in the field and interviewing
them. It is also very important to scan for what is happening globally. The global food regulatory environment is like a
beautiful web, with each market in some way connected to another market.
Actionable outputs
Finally, identifying emerging factors is only the first step. It is also important to identify any opportunities, threats and
risks for the business and be clear about the objectives for your organisation and ensure that any horizon scanning has
actionable outputs.
Full PESTLE horizon scanning
Here at the Science Group, we are helping companies prepare for future eventualities, allowing them to take best
advantage of the emerging trends that will impact it. Leatherhead Food Research’s experts in food legislation scan
food regulations globally, identifying potential future trends and changes that might impact the industry. This is
enhanced by Oakland’s strategic expertise in undertaking full PESTLE horizon scanning, including interviews with key
experts. n
issue four 2018 www.foodmagazine.eu.com