PTY BU SUP_Nov19
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<strong>BU</strong>SINESS <strong>SUP</strong>PLEMENT<br />
FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE<br />
The U.S. Dollar fell against a<br />
number of currencies as interest<br />
rates were cut again in the U.S. and<br />
expectations of further rate cuts increased.<br />
The DXYDollar index, an<br />
index that measures the U.S. Dollar’s<br />
value against a basket of major<br />
currencies moved from 98.24<br />
to 97.14 in almost a straight line<br />
as other currencies gained ground.<br />
Against the Thai Baht, the U.S. Dollar<br />
gave up just a small amount of<br />
ground moving from 30.45 to 30.26,<br />
indicating that the Thai Baht also<br />
weakened along with the U.S. Dollar<br />
during the period.<br />
The Pound reacted positively<br />
to news that a no-deal Brexit is<br />
more likely to be averted, though<br />
many uncertainties remain. At the<br />
time of writing the EU and the UK<br />
had agreed a framework for a new<br />
deal, but passing it through the UK’s<br />
house of commons appears to still<br />
be a sticking point. Yet in spite of<br />
this the pound staged its biggest<br />
6-day rally since 1985, moving from<br />
1.2320 to 1.3012 before dropping<br />
back slightly to 1.2905. Another<br />
driver of the move was an expectation<br />
that some of the uncertainty<br />
might be coming to a close, although<br />
this may prove elusive. Of<br />
course, future movements will depend<br />
on Brexit developments and<br />
indeed there are plenty of hurdles<br />
ahead. From a technical analysis<br />
viewpoint, the Pound looks considerably<br />
stronger than previously with<br />
some analysts suggesting that there<br />
could be increased buying activity if<br />
there is a sustained move above the<br />
1.3000 level. Against the Thai<br />
Baht, the Pound moved from 37.45<br />
to 39.30, a move of nearly five per<br />
cent. Expect volatility to remain<br />
heightened as currency traders jostle<br />
for position.<br />
The U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese<br />
Yen cross rate remained range<br />
bound but saw some surprise<br />
moves as it moved from 108.10<br />
down to 106.71 and then back<br />
to 108.35. Whilst the U.S. Dollar<br />
weakened, the Yen weakened even<br />
more. This phenomenon is likely<br />
due to the “risk-on” trade on global<br />
stock markets taking hold that<br />
erodes the Japanese Yen’s strength<br />
as a safe haven currency. The Japanese<br />
Yen vs. Thai Baht spot rate<br />
fell from 0.2801 to 0.2770, further<br />
indicating Yen weakness.<br />
Some choppiness has started<br />
to exhibit itself when looking at the<br />
Russian Ruble against the USD.<br />
The Ruble weakened from 64.02 to<br />
65.38 only to return back to below<br />
64 at 63.69. Against the Thai Baht it<br />
was trading almost totally flat moving<br />
from 0.4750 down to 0.4650 before<br />
recovering back to 0.4750<br />
The Euro / U.S. Dollar exchange<br />
rate spent much of the time below<br />
the key 1.1000 handle before rallying<br />
to 1.1174 on the back of positive<br />
Brexit news flow. A weaker dollar<br />
also helped to boost the Euro even<br />
in spite of a continued dovish stance<br />
on the part of the ECB. Against the<br />
Thai Baht, the Euro dipped to 33.19<br />
before regaining ground and moving<br />
up to 33.83.<br />
FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE<br />
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