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b Safety from page 20 b
applying the brakes. A thinking driver can recognize
that a vehicle far ahead is traveling at
a slower pace and can adjust speed or change
lanes before it becomes a hazard. A thinking
driver can identify that a passing vehicle is
likely to cut in front and prepare for it, adjusting
speed or changing lanes before hitting the
brakes hard becomes necessary. A thinking
driver knows that a ball rolling in the road is
often followed by a child chasing after it.
Be that thinking driver.
Use available technology to help make the
job safer and easier, but never let it replace
sound safety practices. Use the safety knowledge
you have accumulated to make corrections
BEFORE the computer decides or the warning
system alerts. Keep your speed appropriate for
conditions. Maintain a safe following distance.
Be aware of what’s happening, far ahead and
all around your vehicle. Communicate your
presence and your intentions. Anticipate the
actions of others
You know how to be the safest driver you can
be. Never let a computer do that for you. 8
b Plummet from page 17 b
Reefer rates fell to $2.09 per mile but rose to
$2.19 in March.
The good news was short-lived, however.
The increases in shipments of household products
could not offset the shipments lost due to
shutdown of manufacturing and service outlets
for a sustained period. Shipment numbers must
fall and, when they do, rates fall with them.
The process has already begun.
“We have started to notice price degradation
in the dry van and reefer segments, likely driven
by heavy contraction in demand,” said Adamo.
“The load-to-truck ratio, the number of loads
posted with our service compared to the number
of trucks looking for loads, has been decreasing
steadily. We’re definitely seeing it impact rates.”
In the first week of April, spot rates for van
fell by 2 cents per mile, while reefer rates lost
10 cents. That’s just the beginning.
“I think from a demand perspective, we’re
going to do more than correct,” Adamo predicted.
“I’m starting to think we’ll see a steep
drop-off.”
A part of that drop off is due to Chinese
freight.
“Nearly two months after shutting down for
the Spring Festival holiday, China is only now
starting to return to work,” said Kenny Vieth,
president and senior analyst at ACT Research,
in an April 3 release. “Domestic port and rail
volumes have just begun to reflect the drop in
Chinese output.”
A big reason for concern about port and rail
volumes is Christmas.
“Remember that stocking up for the holiday
season begins right around this time of year,”
Business May 1-14, 2020 • 21
ATRI data shows decline in April trucking due to stay-at-home orders
THE TRUCKER NEWS SERVICES
ATLANTA — The American Transportation
Research Institute has released new data that
quantifies the continued impacts of COVID-19
business disruptions on the trucking industry.
ATRI’s latest analysis looked at truck activity
across six states from Feb. 9 through
the week ending April 18, by converting
its real-time truck GPS dataset into a truck
activity index.
“The GPS data we use is a valuable tool
into what is going on in the economy and the
trucking industry right now,” said ATRI President
and COO Rebecca Brewster. “We knew
from talking to drivers and carrier executives
that there were significant impacts on operations
as a result of COVID-19, but now, by
analyzing this data we are able to put numbers
and data to feelings and anecdotes.”
From early February into March, the data
shows a spike in initial truck activity in the
analyzed states — documenting the response to
high consumer demand for items such as nonperishable
food and paper products, as well as
the much-needed emergency medical supplies.
The analysis further documents the
iStock Photo
There are some signs of a return to normalcy in ATRI’s data as truck activity has seen an
uptick around New York City in mid-April.
impacts of the stay-at-home orders that shut
down major segments of the economy, with a
resulting decline in April trucking operations.
Of the six states analyzed, California had the
earliest stay-at-home order issued on March 19.
California also experienced the earliest upward
spike in truck activity, occurring during the week
of March 1. However, truck activity in California
is now down 8.3% from early February.
In Florida, Illinois and New York, truck activity
spiked the week of March 8 but is now
down on average by over 10% from Feb. 9.
In Pennsylvania and Washington, truck
activity spiked during the week of March 15,
Adamo explained. “Retailers are deciding now
how many Xboxes they will stock for Black
Friday and placing orders accordingly.”
In an economy that’s long overdue for a
recession, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
will reach far beyond public health. Recession
is a real possibility.
“Everyone is nervous. We’re definitely
looking at recessionary pressure, but is it a ‘V’
or a ‘U’ shape?” said Adamo, referring to economic
activity in graph form, wondering if it
will fall quickly and rebound just as quickly,
the “V” shape, or remain low for a while before
rebounding, the “U” shape.
Adamo has some advice for small trucking
businesses who depend on loads from the spot
market.
“Information changes fast,” he said “Use
technology to get the latest. For example, (spot)
rates grew 10% from the end of February to
but is now down by an average of nearly 9%
from Feb. 9.
There are initial signs of a return to normal,
however. In New York, one of the earliest
states to experience high numbers of cases,
truck activity started a positive uptick during
the week of April 12.
“In these unprecedented times, we need to
rely on science and facts, not anecdotes and
speculation. This ATRI research is able to tell
us in near-real-time what the pandemic is really
doing to the trucking industry,” said American
Trucking Associations Chief Economist
Bob Costello. 8
mid-March. Did your broker tell you, or offer
the same rate and keep the difference?”
DAT’s load board, the industry’s largest,
provides up-to-the minute load information,
while the service’s “Trendlines” page provides
useful planning information.
“Be smart about rates,” Adamo continued.
“Make the best decision using the best tools.”
Efficiency is important, too. Adamo counseled
avoiding 300-mile deadheads to load backhauls,
adding, “think in terms of lanes. A load with a
good rate doesn’t help if it puts you somewhere
that you lose money on the return trip.”
A good relationship with a broker is another
way to keep the wheels turning profitably, he said.
“Most importantly,” Adamo concluded,
“thank a trucker. These are extraordinary times.
It’s very important to thank drivers and provide
them with the recognition they deserve. They are
saving a nation.” 8
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