Bangkok February 2021

BUSINESS SUPPLEMENT
FOREIGN CURRENCY UPDATE
THE U.S. DOLLAR
The U.S. Dollar lost ground and
hit a two-and-a-half year low
as confidence in the currency
ebbed, adding to losses in the
previous month. The DXY Dollar
index, the index that measures
the U.S. Dollar’s value against
a basket of major currencies,
fell from 92.64 down to 90.98.
With more stimulus expected,
even a scaled-back plan will
still mean the printing presses
will be hard at work. Against the
Thai Baht, the U.S. Dollar briefly
dipped below the all-important
30.00 level to hit 29.98, before
rebounding to 30.07. Whether
or not the Baht will be subject
to central bank intervention in
the future remains to be seen,
but the 30.00 mark could well
be an area where defenses are
mounted.
THE BRITISH POUND
The British Pound rose from
1.3181 to a high of 1.3519 likely
due to dollar weakness and also
on hopes of a breakthrough on
the Brexit front. As Brexit talks
became more complicated the
Pound retreated back to 1.3232
but remained volatile as deadlines
were extended. Vaccine
rollout news did little to move
Sterling’s value, with the UK
stock market making gains instead.
Against the Thai Baht,
the Pound rose to 40.70 before
falling back to 39.84. Going forward,
GBP/THB rates will likely
be kept in check by the spectre
of a weak dollar.
THE JAPANESE YEN
The Japanese Yen once again
strengthened against the U.S.
Dollar moving from 105.24 to
104.02 but this time held on to
the gains. With stock markets
looking as though they have the
potential to top out, and with
the dollar falling out of favor,
there is a chance that the Yen
could see more strength.
Against the Thai Baht, the Yen
rose from 0.2849 to 0.2899 before
moving back to 0.2871.
THE RUSSIAN RUBLE
After 6 months of a generally
weakening trend the fortunes of
the Ruble reversed and the currency
strengthened from 77.60
to the U.S. Dollar to 72.88,
more than a six per cent move.
This puts it back to levels last
seen in September. Yet volatility
remains elevated and as a
result, future direction is hard
to predict. The Ruble strengthened
against the Thai Baht
from a low of 0.3910 to reach
0.4130, reversing last month’s
move.
THE EURO
The recent consolidation of
the EUR/USD cross rate gave
way to a strong upside breakout
with the Euro moving from
1.1784 all the way to 1.2117.
As the main constituent in the
basket of currencies that the
USD trades against, it is unsurprising
that the Euro would take
up the slack on the other side
of the Dollar’s weakness. This
comes even in spite of the fact
that the ECB continues to take
an easing bias. Against the Thai
Baht the Euro rose from 35.59
to 36.44 a rise of nearly 2.5 per
cent.
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