Lot's Wife Edition 1 2021

Lot’s Wife • Edition One
“We now have, in federal terms, a clear sort of segregation
between the big southern cities where Labor does well, and the
outlying states,” he said.
“It goes to demographics, things like education levels, income,
the rural-regional versus city divide… this sort of phenomena
has been seen everywhere, even in the US election we’ve just
witnessed.
The LNP has continued to receive a primary vote above 40%
in federal elections in Queensland. DATA SOURCE: Australian
Electoral Commission, Australian Parliament. Interactive
Chart Link
Since 1993, Labor has only won a majority of Queensland’s
federal seats once, that being at the 2007 election under Kevin
Rudd, himself a Queenslander.
“Labor federally has particular problems appealing to a
Queensland constituency as we saw in the 2019 federal election,
where it was problems about the Adani Mine [and] climate
change,” he said.
This is a division which Chris Salisbury said is increasingly
evident within Queensland itself, with governing increasingly
becoming a “straddling the fence” exercise between the state’s
different regions.
Labor’s loss of the previously safe seat of South Brisbane to
the Greens in the most recent state election demonstrates the
increasing diversity of views across Queensland.
Despite this growing diversity, an analysis of voting data
from the 2020 election reveals that both Labor and the LNP
increased their primary vote by 4.15 per cent and 2.21 per cent
respectively.
The increased primary vote for the major parties appears to
have been at the expense of One Nation, which saw its primary
vote fall by 6.61 per cent while other minor parties remained
stable.
Labor’s 2007 federal election victory saw it win only two more
seats than the Coalition in Queensland. DATA SOURCE: Australian
Electoral Commission, Australian Parliament. Interactive
Chart Link
Since the merging of the Liberal and National parties into the
LNP a year later, Labor’s primary vote has fallen by an average
of 4 per cent every federal election.
Associate Professor Strangio remains sceptical as to whether
the 2008 merger contributed to this trend.
“It’s hard to credit that given that you would think that would
also pave the way for success at the state level,” he said.
“The federal success of the LNP may instead be due to a distinction
by Queenslanders between state and federal issues,
with the federal Coalition being viewed as a better manager of
the economy and national security,” Dr Strangio said.
The primary votes for the Greens and Katter Australia Party
remained stable at the 2020 state election despite the swing
back to major parties. DATA SOURCE: Electoral Commission
Queensland. Interactive Chart Link
“It’s a very underwhelming performance It lost half of its primary
vote at this election,” Dr Salisbury said.
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