Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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negotiations". Anyone read<strong>in</strong>g that paragraph at <strong>the</strong> time of <strong>Doha</strong> (and thus without <strong>the</strong> benefit of h<strong>in</strong>dsight), could be excused for th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g that negotiations on trade and <strong>in</strong>vestment were a matter of "when" and not "if". To summarize, <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial Declaration that emerged from <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> talks, although a seem<strong>in</strong>gly ambitious document <strong>in</strong> terms of envisag<strong>in</strong>g a pivot <strong>to</strong>wards <strong>the</strong> needs of develop<strong>in</strong>g country members, really just confirmed that <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> was all about bus<strong>in</strong>ess as usual, and that Members would do <strong>the</strong>ir best <strong>to</strong> look like <strong>the</strong>y were tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> concerns of develop<strong>in</strong>g countries seriously while <strong>in</strong> reality do<strong>in</strong>g what <strong>the</strong>y were really sent <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> organization <strong>to</strong> do, namely negotiate <strong>the</strong> best market access concessions for <strong>the</strong>ir own export <strong>in</strong>terests. This is what <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong>, and its predecessor <strong>the</strong> GATT were designed <strong>to</strong> do, and this is what <strong>the</strong> GATT and now <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> have had a great deal of success <strong>in</strong> do<strong>in</strong>g. As Aaditya Mat<strong>to</strong>o and Arv<strong>in</strong>d Subramanian po<strong>in</strong>ted out <strong>in</strong> a 2008 paper on ___________________________________ "The genius of <strong>the</strong> [GATT] was <strong>to</strong> recognize that <strong>the</strong> politics of trade policy is unavoidably mercantilist and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>to</strong> harness this very mercantilism <strong>to</strong> avoid protectionist outcomes" Aaditya Mat<strong>to</strong>o and Arv<strong>in</strong>d Subramanian ______________________________________ a <strong>to</strong>tally unrelated issue "[t]he genius of <strong>the</strong> [GATT] was <strong>to</strong> recognize that <strong>the</strong> politics of trade policy is unavoidably mercantilist and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>to</strong> harness this very mercantilism <strong>to</strong> avoid protectionist outcomes". 13 Given <strong>the</strong> huge gap <strong>in</strong> terms what <strong>the</strong> document that launched <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> Work Program and that also established <strong>the</strong> negotiation agenda promised and aspired <strong>to</strong> on <strong>the</strong> one hand, and <strong>the</strong> underly<strong>in</strong>g political-‐economy realities that it was steeped <strong>in</strong> on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r, is it any wonder that we are currently at such a seem<strong>in</strong>gly <strong>in</strong>surmountable impasse? This is even less surpris<strong>in</strong>g when one considers <strong>the</strong> many significant changes that have transformed <strong>the</strong> global economy s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> launch of <strong>the</strong> round. 2 Gett<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Current Impasse It has admittedly been a long road from <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> <strong>in</strong> November 2001 <strong>to</strong> where we are now -‐ at <strong>the</strong> time of writ<strong>in</strong>g -‐ almost 12 years later and with still no end <strong>in</strong> sight. To put <strong>the</strong> extraord<strong>in</strong>ary length of time <strong>the</strong> current round has lasted <strong>in</strong><strong>to</strong> context, it should be recalled that even <strong>the</strong> Uruguay Round only dragged on for some eight years (September 1986 until December 1993), and it was based on an agenda that was much more radical -‐ <strong>in</strong> terms of 13 Aaditya Mat<strong>to</strong>o and Arv<strong>in</strong>d Subramanian, "Currency Undervaluation and Sovereign Wealth Funds: A New Role for <strong>the</strong> World Trade Organization", Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2008, at: http://www.iie.com/publications/<strong>in</strong>terstitial.cfm?ResearchID=871 (visited on 25 July 2005). 8
<strong>Life</strong> <strong>after</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> | br<strong>in</strong>g<strong>in</strong>g new issues under multilateral discipl<strong>in</strong>es -‐ and much more controversial -‐ <strong>in</strong> terms of f<strong>in</strong>ally subject<strong>in</strong>g agricultural trade <strong>to</strong> actionable trade rules -‐ than one could arguably contend is <strong>the</strong> case for <strong>the</strong> DDA. This section discusses how <strong>the</strong> Round got <strong>to</strong> where it is now, focus<strong>in</strong>g first on Cancun and <strong>the</strong> July 2004 Package, followed by <strong>the</strong> Hong Kong M<strong>in</strong>isterial, <strong>the</strong> 2008 meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Geneva, and <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>al, and ultimately unsuccessful push <strong>to</strong> conclude <strong>the</strong> round, first by <strong>the</strong> end of 2010, <strong>the</strong>n by <strong>the</strong> end of 2011, and f<strong>in</strong>ally, whenever Members can be roused from <strong>the</strong>ir current <strong>in</strong>ertia <strong>to</strong> do so. 2.1 The Collapse at Cancun (MC 5), and <strong>the</strong> Round's Subsequent Rescue <strong>in</strong> July 2004 Two words (actually three) seem <strong>to</strong> sum <strong>up</strong> <strong>the</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> that <strong>to</strong>ok place <strong>in</strong> Cancun Mexico from 10-‐14 September 2003, namely "cot<strong>to</strong>n" and "explicit consensus". The first issue overshadowed <strong>the</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>the</strong> outset and seemed <strong>to</strong> be <strong>the</strong> spark that ignited a mood of militancy among develop<strong>in</strong>g country representatives. The explicit consensus language ended <strong>up</strong> giv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se representatives <strong>the</strong> mechanism by which <strong>the</strong>y could dig <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir heels and ultimately br<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> an ignom<strong>in</strong>ious collapse. The cot<strong>to</strong>n issue had slowly but steadily been brew<strong>in</strong>g at <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> for well over a year before it sparked <strong>the</strong> collapse of <strong>the</strong> Cancun M<strong>in</strong>isterial. As early as January 2001, Mali had explicitly tabled a request <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Special Session of <strong>the</strong> Committee on Agriculture (established under <strong>the</strong> so-‐called <strong>in</strong>built agenda) for subsidies on this commodity <strong>to</strong> be drastically reduced. 14 However <strong>the</strong> issue really began <strong>to</strong> pick <strong>up</strong> some traction with <strong>the</strong> release of a damn<strong>in</strong>g report by Oxfam <strong>in</strong> September 2002 entitled "Cultivat<strong>in</strong>g Poverty: The impact of US cot<strong>to</strong>n subsidies on Africa" 15 , and with <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>itiation of a dispute under <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong>'s Dispute Settlement Understand<strong>in</strong>g by Brazil aga<strong>in</strong>st US cot<strong>to</strong>n subsidies <strong>in</strong> February 2003. 16 Throughout <strong>the</strong> course of 2003, <strong>the</strong> temperature cont<strong>in</strong>ued <strong>to</strong> rise on <strong>the</strong> issue of how damag<strong>in</strong>g US cot<strong>to</strong>n subsidies had been for African cot<strong>to</strong>n farmers, so it is somewhat mystify<strong>in</strong>g why US trade negotia<strong>to</strong>rs, EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy (L) and USTR Robert Zoellick; source: Associated Press 14 See Malian Proposals for <strong>the</strong> Future Negotiations on Agriculture (G/AG/NG/W/99), 11 January 2001. 15 http://www.oxfamamerica.org/publications/cultivat<strong>in</strong>g-‐poverty (visited on 26 July 2013). 16 DS267; For a useful comparison of <strong>the</strong> two tracks that were taken on <strong>the</strong> issue of cot<strong>to</strong>n (negotiation versus litigation), see: Philipp Stucki, Lessons Learned from <strong>the</strong> Negotiations and Litigations on Cot<strong>to</strong>n, 2008, at: http://www.ideascentre.ch/documents/2.28_AnnexactionplanWTICot<strong>to</strong>nFINAL.pdf (visited on 26 July 2013). 9
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Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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