Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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It is probably fair <strong>to</strong> say that, although <strong>the</strong>re was a relatively strong sense of anti-‐climactic let-down, <strong>the</strong> Hong Kong meet<strong>in</strong>g brought nei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> sense of <strong>to</strong>tal despair which followed <strong>the</strong> collapse <strong>in</strong> Cancun, nor <strong>the</strong> e<strong>up</strong>horia that seemed <strong>to</strong> have gripped delegates <strong>after</strong> <strong>the</strong> July 2004 meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Geneva. One important and largely overlooked concession was <strong>the</strong> EU's offer <strong>to</strong> elim<strong>in</strong>ate all export subsidies by 2013. One participant at <strong>the</strong> Hong Kong meet<strong>in</strong>g, a veteran of several trade rounds go<strong>in</strong>g back <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Tokyo Round noted that if <strong>the</strong> EU had made an offer like that back <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1970s or 1980s, many would have considered it significant enough <strong>to</strong> conclude negotiations and seal <strong>the</strong> deal right <strong>the</strong>n and <strong>the</strong>re. 32 Unfortunately this was not <strong>the</strong> sentiment <strong>in</strong> Hong Kong, and so wrangl<strong>in</strong>g cont<strong>in</strong>ued, particularly between <strong>the</strong> US and <strong>the</strong> EU. Also worth not<strong>in</strong>g is that expectations had been severely drummed down <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>run</strong> <strong>up</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g, with several negotia<strong>to</strong>rs and Pascal Lamy -‐ now appo<strong>in</strong>ted as <strong>WTO</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r General -‐ voic<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir op<strong>in</strong>ions that it might be necessary <strong>to</strong> hold a follow-‐<strong>up</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> Hong Kong M<strong>in</strong>isterial as early as March 2006 <strong>in</strong> Geneva, just so that some real progress could be achieved away from <strong>the</strong> limelight, political po<strong>in</strong>t-‐scor<strong>in</strong>g and postur<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>in</strong>evitably accompanied high-level M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>gs. 33 2.3 Geneva 2008 – Much Ado about Special Safeguard Measures If at least a dull shimmer of hope had imbued <strong>the</strong> conclusion of MC6 <strong>in</strong> Hong Kong, by <strong>the</strong> summer of 2008, <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> was back <strong>to</strong> deadlock and despondency with even Pascal Lamy's optimism seem<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> have faded as talks collapsed at <strong>the</strong> end of a marathon 9-‐day negotiat<strong>in</strong>g session dubbed ano<strong>the</strong>r m<strong>in</strong>i-‐m<strong>in</strong>isterial (21 -‐29 July 2008). 34 Lamy had convened <strong>the</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g for <strong>the</strong> purpose of prepar<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> formal establishment of modalities <strong>in</strong> agriculture and NAMA. 35 It was ultimately <strong>the</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r General who <strong>after</strong> 5 days of talks that had seen only modest convergence, seized <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>itiative and <strong>to</strong>ok <strong>the</strong> ra<strong>the</strong>r desperate measure of himself draw<strong>in</strong>g <strong>up</strong> a framework for compromise on many of <strong>the</strong> issues that had eluded consensus <strong>up</strong> <strong>to</strong> that po<strong>in</strong>t, such as <strong>the</strong> magnitude of cuts <strong>in</strong> domestic s<strong>up</strong>port by developed countries, <strong>the</strong> scope of tariff cuts and thus market access commitments for both agricultural and <strong>in</strong>dustrial goods. Lamy's compromise text received mixed reviews but it was essentially viewed as a basis for cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g talks. 36 32 This sentiment was expressed <strong>to</strong> me by Gary Horlick. 33 See BBC News Article dated 22 November 2005 entitled "<strong>WTO</strong> 'won't agree deal <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a", available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/bus<strong>in</strong>ess/4461730.stm (visited on 30 July 2013). 34 See Bluste<strong>in</strong> at p. 275 who refers <strong>to</strong> Lamy "chock<strong>in</strong>g <strong>up</strong>". 35 Bridges Daily Update on <strong>the</strong> Sixth <strong>WTO</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong>, at: http://ictsd.org/i/w<strong>to</strong>/w<strong>to</strong>-‐m<strong>in</strong>i-‐mc-‐geneva-‐ 2008/english<strong>up</strong>dates/13365/ (visited on 30 July 2013). 36 See Bluste<strong>in</strong> at p. 264. 14
<strong>Life</strong> <strong>after</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> | Ultimately, <strong>the</strong> July 2008 talks failed ostensibly over an issue that caused quite a bit of surprise among many commenta<strong>to</strong>rs, namely a special safeguard measure (SSM) for develop<strong>in</strong>g countries that would allow <strong>the</strong>m <strong>to</strong> temporarily raise tariffs above bound rates <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> event of an import surge. 37 Article 5 of <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) already conta<strong>in</strong>s a clause that affords <strong>the</strong> right for some Members <strong>to</strong> <strong>in</strong>voke this measure (referred <strong>to</strong> as an "SSG"), provided <strong>the</strong>y reserved <strong>the</strong> right <strong>to</strong> do so dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> Uruguay Round. 38 S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> conclusion of <strong>the</strong> Uruguay Round, some countries have been forced <strong>to</strong> rue <strong>the</strong>ir failure <strong>to</strong> <strong>in</strong>voke <strong>the</strong> special safeguard on a number of agricultural tariff l<strong>in</strong>es, thus limit<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m <strong>in</strong> pr<strong>in</strong>ciple, <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> regular <strong>WTO</strong> safeguard action (under <strong>the</strong> GATT Article XX escape clause) as <strong>the</strong> only legal option for fend<strong>in</strong>g off <strong>in</strong>jurious import surges. This was <strong>in</strong>deed <strong>the</strong> oversight that was beh<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> Korea Dairy dispute with <strong>the</strong> EU <strong>in</strong> from 1997-‐1999, when Korea -‐ unable <strong>to</strong> <strong>in</strong>voke <strong>the</strong> special safeguard under Article 5 of <strong>the</strong> Agreement on Agriculture -‐ imposed additional duties on imports of skimmed milk powder <strong>after</strong> its market experienced massive import surges <strong>in</strong> this product which constituted a significant threat <strong>to</strong> its own dairy <strong>in</strong>dustry (or so it claimed). 39 Korea lost that dispute, just like o<strong>the</strong>r countries would subsequently lose similar disputes <strong>in</strong>volv<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir use of safeguards under <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> escape clause. 40 Perhaps it was <strong>the</strong> fact that it had ultimately proven unexpectedly difficult <strong>to</strong> legally impose safeguard measures under <strong>WTO</strong> rules that had led develop<strong>in</strong>g countries <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> conclusion that what <strong>the</strong>y needed was <strong>the</strong> k<strong>in</strong>d of air-‐tight policy space that a special safeguard measure very similar <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> one set forth <strong>in</strong> Article 5 AoA afforded. Ei<strong>the</strong>r way, with <strong>the</strong> benefit of h<strong>in</strong>dsight <strong>after</strong> a considerable <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> protectionism dur<strong>in</strong>g and <strong>after</strong> <strong>the</strong> f<strong>in</strong>ancial crisis and <strong>the</strong> ensu<strong>in</strong>g global recession, <strong>in</strong> which countries demonstrated previously unmatched levels of <strong>in</strong>ventiveness <strong>in</strong> us<strong>in</strong>g and abus<strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g trade rules <strong>to</strong> keep out imports <strong>to</strong> shelter import-‐compet<strong>in</strong>g domestic <strong>in</strong>dustries (discussed immediately below), it seems surpris<strong>in</strong>g that it was someth<strong>in</strong>g as mundane as a special safeguard measure that caused <strong>the</strong> collapse of <strong>the</strong> July 2008 meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Geneva. 41 37 Bridges Daily Update on <strong>the</strong> Sixth <strong>WTO</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong>, at: http://ictsd.org/i/w<strong>to</strong>/geneva2008/english<strong>up</strong>dates/15315/ (visited on 30 July 2013). 38 See Yong-‐Shik Lee, Safeguard Measures <strong>in</strong> World Trade: The Legal Analysis, Kluwer Law International, 2007, at p. 153. 39 See Korea – Def<strong>in</strong>itive Safeguard Measure on Imports of Certa<strong>in</strong> Dairy Products, Report of <strong>the</strong> Panel, (WT/DS98/R) at para. 4.54. 40 It is generally recognized that <strong>the</strong> difficulty <strong>in</strong> impos<strong>in</strong>g safeguard measures under GATT Art. XX and <strong>the</strong> Uruguay Round Agreement on Safeguards is due more than anyth<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> causation and non-‐attribution requirements set out <strong>in</strong> Art. 4.2 (b) of <strong>the</strong> Safeguards Agreement, see: Douglas A. Irw<strong>in</strong>, Caus<strong>in</strong>g problems? The <strong>WTO</strong> review of causation and <strong>in</strong>jury attribution <strong>in</strong> US Section 201 cases, <strong>in</strong> World Trade Review, Vol. 2(3), 2003, pp. 297–325, at: http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dirw<strong>in</strong>/docs/causal.pdf, (visited on 30 July 2013). 41 Mean<strong>in</strong>g it is surpris<strong>in</strong>g that what was allowed <strong>to</strong> br<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> talks <strong>to</strong> an abr<strong>up</strong>t end was that a country such as India felt that it absolutely and unequivocally needed <strong>the</strong> extra policy space that a special safeguard would have afforded it; See J. Michael F<strong>in</strong>ger, A Special Safeguard Mechanism for Agricultural Imports: what experience with o<strong>the</strong>r GATT/<strong>WTO</strong> safeguards tells us about what might work, <strong>in</strong>: World Trade Review, Vol. 9 (2), 2010, pp. 289 318, Cambridge University Press. 15
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Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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