Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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Executive Summary The <strong>Doha</strong> Round has proven <strong>to</strong> be an <strong>in</strong>terest<strong>in</strong>g but ultimately anticlimactic ride. It is probably not unfair <strong>to</strong> say that it should never really have been launched when it was and certa<strong>in</strong>ly not under <strong>the</strong> auspices of a development round. The Uruguay Round was arguably <strong>the</strong> last round <strong>in</strong> which large-‐scale, cross-‐cutt<strong>in</strong>g trade-‐offs could be achieved under <strong>the</strong> all-‐or-‐noth<strong>in</strong>g formula that is <strong>the</strong> S<strong>in</strong>gle Undertak<strong>in</strong>g. Pascal Lamy, <strong>the</strong> man who many would agree has <strong>in</strong>vested <strong>the</strong> most energy <strong>to</strong> try and see <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> Round come <strong>to</strong> at least some k<strong>in</strong>d of positive conclusion <strong>in</strong> his capacity as Direc<strong>to</strong>r General, likely came <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> same conclusion when previously, as chief negotia<strong>to</strong>r for <strong>the</strong> European Union, he started <strong>to</strong> question <strong>the</strong> S<strong>in</strong>gle Undertak<strong>in</strong>g approach by float<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> concept of variable geometry. This concept was quickly forgotten, probably because most o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>WTO</strong> Members -‐ developed and develop<strong>in</strong>g -‐ distrusted <strong>the</strong> EU's motives, but this approach now seems <strong>to</strong> have prevailed by sheer attrition, s<strong>in</strong>ce it apparently offers <strong>the</strong> only possible way <strong>to</strong> get th<strong>in</strong>gs done given <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong>'s grow<strong>in</strong>g and <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly fractious membership. This short op<strong>in</strong>ion piece first revisits how and why <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> Round was launched, <strong>the</strong>reby seek<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> show that it was actually done on little more than false pretences, which <strong>in</strong>cidentally goes a long way <strong>to</strong> expla<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g why Members have been so divided and half-‐hearted <strong>in</strong> whe<strong>the</strong>r or not <strong>to</strong> push for its conclusion. It <strong>the</strong>n follow <strong>the</strong> trajec<strong>to</strong>ry of <strong>the</strong> Round through some peaks and troughs, while also keep<strong>in</strong>g one eye on how <strong>the</strong> global economy has changed over <strong>the</strong> years that <strong>the</strong> Round has been on-‐go<strong>in</strong>g. This <strong>in</strong> order <strong>to</strong> show that <strong>the</strong> assumptions and objectives on which <strong>the</strong> DDA was predicated are now largely obsolete, mean<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>the</strong> Round has also lost much of its <strong>in</strong>herent raison d'etre. F<strong>in</strong>ally it discusses some of <strong>the</strong> issues that <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> should be focus<strong>in</strong>g on, while attempt<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> make <strong>the</strong> case that despite <strong>the</strong> many setbacks of <strong>Doha</strong>, <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> still rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> s<strong>in</strong>gle most important forum for discuss<strong>in</strong>g and resolv<strong>in</strong>g many of <strong>the</strong> world's most press<strong>in</strong>g and seem<strong>in</strong>gly <strong>in</strong>tractable trade policy issues. Although <strong>the</strong> lion's share of trade liberalization nowadays is clearly tak<strong>in</strong>g place via preferential trad<strong>in</strong>g arrangements <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> form of bilateral or regional (or even <strong>in</strong>ter-‐regional) free trade or economic partnership agreements, this is no way dim<strong>in</strong>ishes <strong>the</strong> relevance and importance of <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> as an <strong>in</strong>stitution, but ra<strong>the</strong>r only re<strong>in</strong>forces <strong>the</strong> need for a robust and viable global referee <strong>in</strong> a world of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly <strong>in</strong>tegrated markets. 2
<strong>Life</strong> <strong>after</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> | 1 Remember<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> (MC 4) The <strong>Doha</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> was <strong>the</strong> culm<strong>in</strong>ation of almost two years of plann<strong>in</strong>g and was a carefully conceived and meticulously scripted event that still conta<strong>in</strong>ed its fair share of surprises. Perhaps <strong>the</strong> most surpris<strong>in</strong>g th<strong>in</strong>g at all is that many trade negotia<strong>to</strong>rs and <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong>'s Direc<strong>to</strong>r General allowed <strong>the</strong>mselves <strong>to</strong> be bl<strong>in</strong>ded by <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>in</strong>itiat<strong>in</strong>g a round that would ultimately fail could be as disastrous as fail<strong>in</strong>g <strong>to</strong> <strong>in</strong>itiate a round at all, and that of <strong>the</strong>se two scenarios, <strong>the</strong> latter is arguably easier for <strong>the</strong> organization <strong>to</strong> recover from. This section starts by discuss<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>run</strong> <strong>up</strong> <strong>to</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> -‐ especially Seattle -‐ and concludes by discuss<strong>in</strong>g some of <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>herent <strong>in</strong>consistencies <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial Declaration that have played such an important role <strong>in</strong> damn<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> DDA <strong>to</strong> become a ra<strong>the</strong>r unfortunate real-‐life <strong>in</strong>carnation of Samuel Beckett's unforgettable play Wait<strong>in</strong>g for Godot. 1.1 Seattle, September 11 and Launch<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> Development Agenda There were probably two overrid<strong>in</strong>g fac<strong>to</strong>rs that, more than anyth<strong>in</strong>g else, led <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> launch of <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> Development Agenda <strong>in</strong> December 2001, nei<strong>the</strong>r of which would really have resulted <strong>in</strong> anyth<strong>in</strong>g if it were not for <strong>the</strong> personality of <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r General Mike Moore and his will<strong>in</strong>gness <strong>to</strong> act (for better or worse) on <strong>the</strong> strength of his own convictions. These two fac<strong>to</strong>rs were 1) <strong>the</strong> shock of <strong>the</strong> really spectacular failure of <strong>the</strong> Seattle M<strong>in</strong>isterial <strong>Conference</strong> <strong>in</strong> 1999 and <strong>the</strong> belief by many, <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>WTO</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r General, that <strong>the</strong> best way <strong>to</strong> put Seattle beh<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> organization was <strong>to</strong> launch a new Round; and 2) <strong>the</strong> September 11 attacks on <strong>the</strong> United States which compelled many <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> (erroneous) conclusion that <strong>the</strong> best way <strong>to</strong> show <strong>in</strong>ternational solidarity <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> wake of this terrible tragedy was <strong>to</strong> launch ano<strong>the</strong>r round of multilateral trade negotiations. 1 A law enforcement agent sprays pepper spray at <strong>the</strong> crowd; source: Wikimedia Commons 1 It is Mike Moore who is generally credited – as <strong>the</strong> M<strong>in</strong>isterial talks <strong>in</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> reached an impasse on whe<strong>the</strong>r or not <strong>to</strong> launch a new round – with address<strong>in</strong>g delegates and forcefully ask<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> rhe<strong>to</strong>rical question of whe<strong>the</strong>r he needed <strong>to</strong> rem<strong>in</strong>d anyone present as <strong>to</strong> what had taken place <strong>in</strong> New York just a few weeks before <strong>the</strong> <strong>Doha</strong> meet<strong>in</strong>g. Ano<strong>the</strong>r account tells of <strong>the</strong> Direc<strong>to</strong>r General <strong>in</strong>terven<strong>in</strong>g dur<strong>in</strong>g a crucial impasse, confront<strong>in</strong>g Members with words <strong>to</strong> <strong>the</strong> effect that <strong>the</strong> multilateral 3
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Life after Doha: Some reflections in the run up to the 9th WTO Ministerial Conference on Bali

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