Ashburton Courier: September 16, 2021
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Y<br />
Ye<br />
FEATURE<br />
30 <strong>Ashburton</strong> <strong>Courier</strong>, <strong>September</strong> <strong>16</strong>, <strong>2021</strong><br />
www.ashburtoncourier.co.nz<br />
build buy &renovate<br />
<strong>2021</strong><br />
Kiwis optimism high in housing survey<br />
Kiwis optimism in New<br />
Zealand’s housingmarket is<br />
proving hard to dent,with net<br />
58 percent still expecting house<br />
prices to increase in thecoming<br />
12 months, despite widespread<br />
predictionsofarapid slowdownorprice<br />
drop, according<br />
to the latest ASB Housing<br />
Confidencesurvey.<br />
ASB economists are now<br />
forecasting annual house price<br />
growth to drop to just two<br />
percent next year, flatlining<br />
compared withthe doubledigit<br />
growth we’ve seenover thepast<br />
year.<br />
ASB chief economistNick<br />
Tuffley said he was not<br />
surprisedKiwis were doubtful<br />
of aslowdown,particularly<br />
with housing demand still<br />
outstripping supply.<br />
“Given the recent<br />
government changes and new<br />
regulationshavesofar only<br />
slightlyimpactedthe market,<br />
it’s understandablethat Kiwis<br />
are sceptical about aslowdown,<br />
particularlyasannual<br />
house price growth has most<br />
recently hit 30 percent.<br />
‘‘For many watching the<br />
runaway housing market, it may<br />
be hard to imagine ever seeing<br />
adecline. Despite this, there<br />
are anumber of factors which<br />
are increasingly likely to put<br />
the brakeson.”<br />
Kiwis are still expecting house prices to increase in the coming year.<br />
“This yearthe RBNZ has<br />
reintroduced its LoantoValue<br />
Ratio(LVR) restrictions, the<br />
Government hit property<br />
investors with atax hammer,<br />
and there has been some<br />
upwardcreep in mortgage<br />
rates,’’ he said.<br />
‘‘Behind the scenes, inbound<br />
migration has ground to ahalt<br />
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and homecompletionshave<br />
lifted, which should ease<br />
demandslightly,although we<br />
now have construction delays<br />
due to supplybottlenecks to<br />
contend with,’’ he said.<br />
House price expectations<br />
maybeholding steady,<br />
however,interest rate risesare<br />
increasingly beingviewedas<br />
inevitable,with net54percent<br />
of those surveyed expecting<br />
higherratesinthe coming year<br />
–asignificantturnaround from<br />
thenet 13 percentthat<br />
expected adropinthe first<br />
quartersurvey.<br />
“The latest lockdown gave an<br />
OCR lift atemporary stayof<br />
executionbut inflation<br />
pressuresare likely to remain<br />
just as chronic,despitethe<br />
disruption. It was veryclear<br />
theRBNZ intended to lift the<br />
OCR on August 18,but only<br />
held off because of the justannounced<br />
covid community<br />
outbreak.<br />
‘‘Atthis point the RBNZstill<br />
looks likely to move very<br />
shortly,and we arepredicting<br />
an October OCR increase.<br />
‘‘The longerthe lockdownin<br />
Auckland lasts, however, the<br />
more likelyitwill continueto<br />
pause to assesshow the longerterm<br />
picture has been changed<br />
(ornot),” Mr Tuffleysaid.<br />
Unsurprisingly,perceptions<br />
of whetheritisagoodtime to<br />
buyremainnegative,with20<br />
percent saying it was abad<br />
time to buy, downonlyslightly<br />
on lastquarter’s 21 percent.<br />
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ar<br />
•<br />
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TM<br />
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