Jeweller - December 2021

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FORECAST REPORT The Synthetic Future Lab-created diamond jewellery market : FORECAST TO ALMOST DOUBLE IN SIZE BY 2025 Image: Diamond Foundry The future for lab-created diamonds will not be the great disruptor many predicted. The potential may rest in fashion jewellery and in high-tech applications rather than quality luxury pieces, says PAUL ZIMNISKY. T he Diamond Foundry plans to build a new plant that will reportedly produce 10 million carats per annum to cater for the industrial tech market. Along with the world’s largest fashion jewellery brand Pandora – which is currently testing a line of ‘affordable’ lab-diamond jewellery - the man-made diamond market appears to be stratifying into a more nuanced industry away from one that was, just a few years ago, primarily focused on ‘disrupting’ the natural diamond jewellery market. In the five or so years since larger, higher-quality labdiamond jewellery began hitting the wider market (at first in the US), production technologies have vastly improved, the number of suppliers has greatly increased and many retailers have begun to trial, and in some cases fullyadopt, the novel product. This has resulted in suppliers segmenting into more specific business strategy aims such as lowest-cost diamond jewellery, carbon-neutral branded diamonds or non-jewellery super-material applications. Estimated lab-diamond production for use in jewellery has grown from just a few hundred thousand polished carats per annum as recently as four or five years ago, to almost 3 million polished carats in 2021 worth almost US$2 billion, based on the polished diamond value at retail (‘loose diamond equivalent’ or excluding jewellery cost). This figure represents an estimated mid-to-high singledigit percentage of the total global polished diamond IN NUMBERS Big Picture 3 million Number of polished carats in 2021 75% Price difference between labcreated and natural diamonds 10 million Forecast annual production of new Diamond Foundry plant US$1 billion IPO valuation of Brilliant Earth market (See tables right). As the lab-made industry expands, man-made diamond manufacturers are taking different approaches to production and product positioning. In recent years, US and Israeli tech start-ups such as WD Diamonds and Lusix, have seemingly focused on lower-emission, more sustainable production methods to differentiate their jewellery product. On the other hand, Diamond Foundry has publicly expressed a longer-term aim at targeting single-crystal diamond wafer production for use in semiconductors, an industry many times larger than the jewellery industry. Other companies are seemingly targeting lowest-cost diamond jewellery production. The number of lab-made manufacturers in India is estimated to have increased rapidly driven by relative cost benefits in the country as companies there benefited from subsidised energy (the greatest variable cost for man-made diamond manufacturers) and domestic access to the industry’s largest manufacturing hub. In China, some legacy, high-capacity high-pressure-hightemperature (HPHT) producers continue to upgrade their production technologies allowing for larger, higher-quality gem production – allowing them to compete with more modern chemical vapour deposition production (CVD) methods. On the downstream end of the lab-created diamond jewellery market, it seems that many consumers who choose a lab-diamond rather than a natural diamond 46 | December 2021
INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL LOOKING AHEAD TABLE A: LAB-GROWN POLISHED DIAMOND MARKET FORECAST TABLE B: 1-CARAT POLISHED DIAMOND JEWELLERY PRICE COMPARISON TABLE C: MARKET SEGMENTATION OF LAB-GROWN DIAMONDS CHARTS AND ANALYSIS BY PAUL ZIMNISKY © 2021 REPORT REPUBLISHED WITH PERMISSION
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Jeweller - December 2021

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