ce magazine December issue 2021

And discounting has been lackluster — even on shopping holidays. On Cyber Monday, for
instance, discount levels for electronics were 12% off versus 27% last year, TVs were 13% off
versus 18% last year and appliances were 8% off versus 20% last year, according to Adobe.
Those discounts are expected to fade even more and settle into the 5% to 10% range in the
weeks ahead, the company predicted.
NRF‟s Shay said the omicron variant could actually lead to more sales for retailers. He said
some consumers who had planned to book a trip, buy theater tickets or give another experiential
gift may opt for goods instead.
And even as public health officials and consumers learn more about the variant, he said “there‟s
no need to panic.” He said the backdrop looks very different this holiday season, thanks to the
majority of Americans being fully vaccinated.
“We remain confident that we will continue to have a very positive trajectory in the overall
economy and specifically, the retail industry, for this holiday season,” he said.
Fighting December lull
A wave of early shopping could increase the risk of a December lull, said Craig Johnson,
founder of the consumer research firm CGP.
The December lull in the retail industry refers to those few weeks after Black Friday and Cyber
Monday and before the final days leading up to Christmas Eve when consumers may feel
shopped out and decide to put their wallets aside for a pause in spending.
Johnson said he has tracked the lull for more than a decade. As retailers pull promotions earlier
and earlier into the season, they can steal sales from later in the season without increasing
overall demand, he said.
“People are either de-energized or they‟re taking a breather,” he said.
According to his company‟s estimates, U.S. retail sales online and in stores on Black Friday
totaled a record $34.9 billion, up 18% from a year earlier and up 12% from 2019. It is
forecasting sales for the entire holiday season, including November and December, to be up
6.7% year over year.
He said two wildcards — the omicron variant and the rise of smash-and-grab crimes — could
spook customers from returning to stores. In recent weeks, Best Buy, Nordstrom and Louis
Vuitton have all been targets of organized retail crime.
“That puts a damper on everything,” Johnson said. “There could be an exacerbated December
lull if that activity keeps popping.”
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