FROM THE CHIEF EXECUTIVESTORM CHASERSThe CICM and its members are well placed to steerorganisations through the inevitable storm ahead.Sue Chapple FCICMIn much the same way as I find policeofficers are getting younger, the yearsalso now seem to flash by in a moment.One minute you’re just recovering froman over-indulgence of Hogmanay andknuckling down for the year ahead, andthe next you’re in full preparatory modefor Christmas, wondering where the last12 months have gone.Certainly 2022 has gone in a heartbeatand didn’t, as was predicted by some,lead to an enormous tsunami of businessfailures, neither did it see a massiveincrease in defaults and delinquencies.Consumer confidence – at least in the firsthalf of the year – remained pretty resilient,and a feared halt in discretionary spend didnot materialise.Unfortunately, I believe that 2022 maybe seen very much as the lull before thestorm, like an uneasy truce or the PhoneyWar. The emperor is naked but not everyoneis prepared to admit it. Sadly, and if theexpert commentators and the views ofour own CICM Think Tank members areto be believed, there are undoubtedlydifficulties ahead.Squeezed middleThe c2.6 million mortgages that are dueto come off low fixed-rate deals towardsthe middle of 2023 will definitely happen,causing a nightmare for borrowers andlenders alike. By the end of 2024, morethan five million households will be facinghigher mortgage payments compared toQ3 2022. The withdrawal of Governmentbuffers moving towards a more meanstesteddelivery, is very likely to happen.And the so-called ‘squeezed middle’ willbecome even more squeezed and will bethe group most affected as the recessionbegins to bite.Preparing for the inevitable downturnis a must. Mohammed Chaudhri, ChiefEconomist and Director of MarketIntelligence at Experian, told a CICM ThinkTank in November that in reality the UK isalready in recession, and the industries thatwill be most impacted will be those relatedto discretionary spend. There are furthertough times ahead for the hospitality sectorwhich has already had to come throughtough times, and some of the smallerbusinesses across all sectors who perhapsjust about made it through by the skin oftheir teeth and a Government hand-outmay find themselves facing a bridge too far.For businesses, however, this is not thetime to start burying our heads in the sand.This is when the key principles of bestpracticecredit and collections managementreally come into their own. It’s when thebasics of ‘Know Your Customer’ (KYC) takeon even greater significance. It’s whenunderstanding not just your own suppliers,but also the wider supply chain and yourcustomers’ customers becomes even moreimportant. It’s when invoicing accuratelyand on time is essential, and your creditteams are fully engaged as one of yourgreatest sales enablers.Training investmentIt's also a time when an investment intraining and development is also critical.Recruiting and retaining talent is anongoing challenge and presents both anopportunity and a threat. Those who feelthat their careers are being nurtured anddeveloped are more likely to stay, and itis that retained knowledge and expertisethat will become increasingly importantin helping firms navigate the choppywaters ahead.It goes without saying that your CharteredInstitute is here to support you as individuals,and the organisations you represent, with arange of training, services, and peer-ledexpert advice. We don’t have a crystal ball,and none of us can truly know what nextyear will bring. But what we do know, is thattogether we are stronger, and together we cantackle whatever challenges the New Year hasin store.Brave | Curious | Resilient / www.cicm.com / December 2022 / PAGE 8
Brave | Curious | Resilient / www.cicm.com / December 2022 / PAGE 9
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