The Big I Virginia Winter 2022-23

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By Authors Names Here THE GREAT RESHUFFLE The Great Reshuffle AND and Workers WORKERS Compensation Frequency COMPENSATION FREQUENCY Key Findings By Patrick Coate • The Great Reshuffle led to a modest increase in the share of short-tenured workers, a few percentage points in most sectors KEY • FINDINGS Short-tenured workers in most sectors are close to twice as likely to suffer work injuries than fulltenured Great Reshuffle workers, led but to their a modest relative increase risk is in lower the in in-person almost 10 million service more sectors than pre-pandemic averages. Many • The share of short-tenured workers, a few percentage workers are new to their jobs. Some of these are moving • The explosion of remote work during the pandemic put downward pressure on injury frequency, points in most sectors from one similar job to another, but others are changing especially in office-based sectors • Short-tenured workers in most sectors are close to industries or occupations. At the same time, there are a • The net impact on frequency across multiple sectors, twice as likely to suffer work injuries than fulltenured large like number a state of or new book remote of business, workers. will Many vary people based on left the office at COVID’s onset; there has been a trickle back, workers, the changes but their in relative industry risk mix is and lower the in frequency in-person metric • representing a massive change in the amount of remote service The sectors Great Reshuffle may have contributed to frequency anomalies in 2020 and 2021, but it is likely to work compared to before the pandemic. • The cause explosion only of small remote deviations work during from the frequency pandemic trends in the coming years How do such large changes in the labor market impact put downward pressure on injury frequency, especially workers compensation injury frequency? The magnitude in office-based sectors of these impacts relies on the interaction of three factors: • The net impact on frequency across multiple sectors, like a state or book of business, will vary based on the changes in industry mix and the frequency metric • The Great Reshuffle may have contributed to frequency anomalies in 2020 and 2021, but it is likely to cause only small deviations from frequency trends in the coming years INTRODUCTION The Great Reshuffle is reshaping the US labor market. Unemployment is historically low, but labor force participation is still lower than the pre-pandemic rate. Labor shortages have led to wage growth, especially strong among low-wage workers and in sectors like Leisure and Hospitality. Quit rates jumped in the middle of 2021 and remain high at the time of this writing—about 50 million quits a year, September 2022 By Patrick Coate • How much more or less likely are short-tenured or remote workers to be injured than other workers? • How much has the share of such workers changed? • How has the sector mix of the workforce changed during the pandemic? SHORT–TENURED WORKERS How many short-tenured workers are there? The first question to answer is how many short-tenured workers are there in the labor market and in each sector? In the chart below, we show estimates of the share of short-tenured workers (12 months or less with their current employer) for the years immediately preceding the pandemic. Two observations stand out. First, there were a lot of short-tenured workers in all sectors, even before the pandemic. Since 2012, the average share © Copyright 2022 National Council on Compensation Insurance, Inc. All Rights Reserved. © THE Copyright RESEARCH 2022 ARTICLES National AND Council CONTENT on Compensation DISTRIBUTED Insurance, BY NCCI ARE Inc. PROVIDED All Rights FOR Reserved. GENERAL INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE PROVIDED “AS IS.” NCCI DOES NOT GUARANTEE THEIR ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS NOR DOES NCCI ASSUME ANY LIABILITY THAT MAY RESULT IN YOUR RELIANCE UPON THE SUCH RESEARCH INFORMATION. ARTICLES NCCI AND EXPRESSLY CONTENT DISCLAIMS DISTRIBUTED ANY AND BY NCCI ALL WARRANTIES ARE PROVIDED OF ANY FOR KIND GENERAL INCLUDING INFORMATIONAL ALL EXPRESS, PURPOSES STATUTORY ONLY AND AND IMPLIED ARE WARRANTIES PROVIDED “AS INCLUDING IS.” NCCI THE DOES IMPLIED NOT GUARANTEE WARRANTIES THEIR OF MERCHANTABILITY ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS AND FITNESS FOR NOR A PARTICULAR DOES NCCI PURPOSE. ASSUME ANY LIABILITY THAT MAY RESULT IN YOUR RELIANCE UPON SUCH INFORMATION. NCCI EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND INCLUDING ALL EXPRESS, STATUTORY AND 14 THE IMPLIED BIG WARRANTIES I VIRGINIA INCLUDING WINTER THE 2022-23 IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
Introduction The Great Reshuffle is reshaping the US labor market. Unemployment is historically low, but labor force participation is still lower than the pre-pandemic rate. Labor shortages have led to wage growth, especially strong among low-wage workers and in sectors like Leisure and Hospitality. Quit rates jumped in the middle of 2021 and remain high at the time of this writing—about 50 million quits a year, almost 10 million more than pre-pandemic averages. Many workers are new to their jobs. Some of these are moving from one similar job to another, but others are changing industries or occupations. At the same time, there are a large number of new remote workers. Many people left the office at COVID’s onset; there has been a trickle back, representing a massive change in the amount of remote work compared to before the pandemic. of short-tenured workers across all sectors has consistently Manufacturing subsectors responded to lower labor been How between do such 21–23%. large changes This is not in the a historical labor market anomaly— impact demand workers compensation in 2020 by reducing injury frequency? hours and The enacting magnitude the of short-tenured these impacts share relies was on even the higher interaction the of late three 1990s factors: temporary plant shutdowns. 2 Cutbacks in work hours and early 2000s before the Great Recession. 1 In other reduced layoffs. Consequently, manufacturing firms met words, there • How is always much a more substantial or less share likely of are workers short-tenured who recovering or remote labor workers demand to be in injured part by than restoring other work workers? hours are new • on the How job. much has the share of such workers changed? rather than new hiring. Second, • the How share has of the short-tenured sector mix workers of the workforce varies widely changed We during estimate the the pandemic? change in the share of short-tenured by sector, but all sectors have a substantial share of shorttenured workers in any given year. Leisure and Hospitality sources. The Current Population Survey (CPS) conducts workers during 2021 using a combination of two data has the highest share of short-tenured workers, at nearly a biennial survey supplement on employee tenure in 40% in the years prior to the pandemic. Retail Trade, around January of even years. However, the latest published report 30%, also has a high share of short- tenured workers. Even contains data from January 2020, predating the onset of in sectors with the lowest shares of short-tenured workers, the pandemic. 3 Thus, we estimate more recent shares of Manufacturing, Wholesale Trade, and Financial Activities, short-tenured workers using the Job Openings and Labor about 18% of workers are in the first year at their employer. Turnover Survey (JOLTS). What happened during the pandemic and recovery? We estimate that the share of short-tenured workers increased modestly in 2021. The share of short-tenured workers in Leisure and Hospitality increased from 41% to 48%; in Retail Trade from 30% to 33%; and in Transportation and Warehousing, from 24% to 27%. We estimate smaller changes—or even no change— in sectors where hiring rates did not change much—in late 2020 and during 2021—from pre-pandemic norms. These sectors include Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, Information, Manufacturing, and Wholesale Trade. The first three of these sectors require relatively little inperson contact with customers and are conducive to remote work, as we will discuss further in the next section. These sectors suffered fewer job losses than average at the pandemic’s onset and less reshuffling of workers during the recovery. The latter two sectors have relatively high shares of longtenured workers and experienced less turnover. Some By our definition, short-tenured workers are those who were hired at their current employer in the last 12 months. Therefore, we can get a very good estimate of shorttenured worker share by using average JOLTS hiring rates by sector (new hires/total workers) for the trailing 12 months. Although some new hires will change jobs again or leave the workforce before serving a full year on the job, prior 12-month hiring rate correlates very strongly in all sectors with the share of short-tenured workers as measured by the CPS supplement. Examining the JOLTS data can illuminate why we estimate only a modest increase in short-tenured workers. • Private industry hire rates were between 4.0-4.4% every month for over five years before the pandemic’s onset. • After a dip and subsequent spike in the second quarter of 2020, during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, hire rates have steadily been 4.4-5.0% every month from July 2020 through June 2022. • Hiring rates have thus increased between 10-15% during the Great Reshuffle, with some variation by sector as reflected in our estimates shown above. WINTER 2022-23 THE BIG I VIRGINIA 15
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