Aston Villa Recruitment Plan 2022-2023

Aston Villa Football Club

Summer Transfer Recruitment Plan 2023

By Gareth Cooper

@ThatGarateyjc

Contents:

• Introduction

• Squad Analysis (Positional + Contract Details)

• Squad Analysis (Age + Contract Details)

• Squad Age Profiling

• 2022-2023 Transfer Analysis Breakdown

• English Premier League Net Spend vs Points Per Game Analysis

• Aston Villa Team & League Similarity Analysis

• Aston Villa Team & League Similarity Analysis (Continued)

• Transfer Targeting Map

Player Recommendations

• 1-4 Goalkeepers

• 5-11 Center Backs

• 12-20 Right Backs

• 21-29 Center Midfielders

• 30-38 Attacking Midfielders

• 39-47 Center Forwards & Strikers

• 48-50 Long list player recommendations

• 51 Conclusion & Resource Summary

Introduction

The main purpose of this document is to firstly detail and assess the current 2023 Aston Villa squad and then

secondly identify and recommend, by using a data driven approach, possible transfer targets that will

enhance the squad for the 2023-2024 English Premier League season and taking inti consideration the extra

games that will now be played in the Europa Conference League. This will be done by implementing the

following workflow;

Initial Squad Assessment & Transfer Window Analysis

• Primary squad profiling by on-field positions and remaining contract length.

• Secondary squad profiling by age and remaining contract length.

• ‘Peak Age’ squad profile graphic.

• Summer & Winter transfer windows analysis (including net spends).

Recruitment Plan

• Identify and detail, using text, visualizations and similarity model output, realistic transfer targets from a

long list I believe are needed to fill the positions highlighted by myself that are of a standard that will

enhance the current squad all within the known current wage structure and separated by on-field

positional sections.

• Highlight other possible targets not detailed in the primary analysis identification process.

This document is not affiliated to Aston Villa Football Club.

Current Squad Analysis

• Squad Depth Analysis (Positions)

• Squad Depth Analysis (Age Brackets)

• Squad Age Profiles

• Aston Villa 2022-2023 Transfer Analysis

• Premier League Expenditure Analysis

• Aston Villa Similarity Comparison Analysis

• Aston Villa Similarity Comparison Analysis

Cont.

• Transfer Target Mapping

Click for further information

LB

Alex Moreno +3

Lucas Digne +3

LM

Jaden Philogene-Bidace +1

GK

Emiliano Martinez +4

Robin Olsen *

Viljami Sinisalo +2

LCB

Tyrone Mings +3

Kortney Hause

RCB

Ezri Konsa +3

Diego Carlos +3

Calum Chambers +2

DM

Tim Iroegbunam + 4

Leander Dendoncker *

Marvelous Nakamba + 1

RB

Matty Cash +4

Kaine Kesler-Hayden +3

(loan to Plymouth for

23\24)

LCM

Boubacar Kamara +4

Douglas Luiz + 3

RCM

John McGinn +2

Youri Tielemans +4

Morgan Sanson +2

RM

Jacob Ramsey +4

Bertrand Traore +1

AM

Emi Buendia +3

Phillipe Coutinho +3

LCF

Ollie Watkins +2

Wesley Moraes +1

RCF

Leon Bailey +2

Jhon Duran*

Cameron Archer +4

Keinan Davis +1

- Contract number

detail refers to the

number of years left

on the players

contract as of 1 st

June 2023.

- Where possible,

individual player

names are ranked

by minutes played in

the English Premier

League in the 22/23

season.

- All data correct as

7 th July 2023

Goalkeepers

Youth & Under 23

Peak (23-29)

Experienced (30+)

Click for further information

Strikers Midfielders Defenders

Filip Marshall + 4

Viljami Sinisalo +2

Oliwier Zych +1

James Wright *

Kaine Kesler-Hayden +3

Sil Swinkels +1

Ben Chrisene +2

Josh Feeney *

Sebastian Revan

Jacob Ramsey +4

Tim Iroegbunam + 4

Lamare Bogarde +2

Jaden Philogene-Bidace +1

Aaron Ramsey*

Finn Azaz*

Jhon Duran*

Cameron Archer +4

Louie Barry +1

Caleb Chukwuemeka*

Ezri Konsa +3

Calum Chambers +2

Matty Cash +4

Alex Moreno +3

Lucas Digne +3

Kortney Hause

Boubacar Kamara +4

Douglas Luiz + 3

Emi Buendia +3

John McGinn +2

Bertrand Traore +1

Morgan Sanson +2

Marvelous Nakamba +1

Leander Dendoncker *

Ollie Watkins +2

Leon Bailey +2

Wesley Moraes +1

Keinan Davis +1

Emiliano Martinez +4

Tyrone Mings +3

Diego Carlos +3

Phillipe Coutinho +3

- Contract number detail refers

to the number of years left on

the players contract as of 1 st

June 2023.

- Where possible, individual

player names are ranked by

minutes played in the English

Premier League in the 22/23

season.

- All data correct as 7 th July

2023.

- Youth players included for

age profiling reasons only.

Aston Villa Squad Age Profiles

Peak Age Performance

24 to 29.5 years

Players with 0 Mins Playing Time

Kaden Young (17)

Travis Patterson (17)

James Wright (18)

Oliwier Zych (18)

Sil Swinkels (19)

Lamare Bogarde (19)

Sebastian Revan (19)

Tim Iroegbunam (19)

Filip Marshall (19)

Viljami Sinisalo (21)

• In the 22/23 EPL season, Jacob Ramsey & Jhon Duran were the only two players aged 21 or under to play 100+ minutes with Ramsey making 35 appearances playing a total

of 2336 minutes and Duran making 12 appearances and playing a total of 136 minutes.

• The average age of the squad in 22/23 was 27.0 years of age this is an increase from 26.1 in 21/22 and from 20/21 where the average age was again lower at 25.2.

• In the 21/22 season a total of 31 players were given some minutes of playing time in the EPL and in 22/23 there were 26 (including those who ended up going out on loan).

Aston Villa 2022/2023 Transfer Analysis

Summer 2022

Window

Winter

2022/2023

Window

Expenditure Player Arrivals (exc. Returning loans) Income Player Departures

(exc. Out going loans)

£70,000,000 Diego Carlos- £31m

Philippe Coutinho- £20m

Leander Dendoncker- £16.5m

Robin Olsen- £3.5m

Ludwig Augustinsson- £500,000 (loan)

£42,000,000 Carney Chukwuemeka-

£18m

Matt Targett- £17.5m

Mahmoud Trezeguet-

£4m

Anwar El Ghazi- £2.5m

Net: £-28,000,000

Expenditure Player Arrivals (exc. Returning loans) Income Player Departures

(exc. Out going loans)

£30,140,000 Jhon Duran- £16.64m

Alex Moreno- £13.5m

£12,000,000 Danny Ings- £12m

Net: -£18,140,000

Totals: £100,140,000 £54,000,000 Net Total: -£46,140,000

Click for full EPL team net spend data

English Premier League Average Points & Expenditure 2022-2023

Best Performing

Investors

Brentford

Newcastle United

Fulham

Manchester United

Average EPL PPG = 1.38

Worst Performing

Investors

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

Everton

West Ham United

Leeds United

Aston Villa outlaid just over £100m on transfers in the summer of 2022 and the January window combined and when comparing this to their points per game total of

1.61 this would be deemed as a highly successful return on those investments especially after a tough start in very tough league. A change in manager came in

November when Unai Emery was appointed, and he massively improved on Gerrard’s 1.08 PPG.

Elsewhere in the EPL Chelsea’s incredible £611.40 million pound spending spree in 22/23 gained them just 1.16 PPG and saw them finish in 12 th position in the table.

Nottingham Forest spent £195.2 million, a huge outlay for a newly promoted side which exceeded many people’s predictions in that aspect yet escaped relegation by

just 4 points come the end of the campaign.

Team & League Similarity Analysis

Team & League Style Modelling

Producing a recruitment plan, especially a data driven one such as

this one, modelling Aston Villa’s playing style by using a huge

variety of metrics is a key component in being able to filter the

database and look at alternative options that may be otherwise

discounted in a standard recruitment process. In the following

slide this will become clearer after being detailed in 4 graphs

comparing Villa’s playing style with that of the teams in the

leagues of potential transfer targets.

Similarity Model Results

After running the model, the results give Empoli in Serie A as the most

similar team in playing style to Aston Villa which is interesting as both

teams possess the following playing style similarities;

• A preference for attacking down their left-hand side of the pitch.

• Play a high defensive line and utilize the offside trap.

• Play a high percentage of their overall possession chains within their

own half of the pitch.

• Play with a great deal of width in their set up.

• Both teams play in a variation of a 4-4-2 system.

Top 3 teams similar to Aston Villa

• Empoli

• Clermont Foot

• Wolverhampton Wanderers

Top 3 leagues similar the EPL

• Ligue 1

• Super Lig (Turkey)

• La Liga

Primary Markets Focus

• Ligue 1

• La Liga

• Premier League

The model also tells us from the 3 teams listed in the table from Ligue 1,

with just over 87% similarity, that the French top tier is the most similar

league, but not limited to, the Premier League with the parameters given.

This aids the recruitment process as players may be more adaptable to

the Premier League from Ligue 1.

Note: This does not mean the process is limited to just the parameters listed above it

is just one of many tools used in this analysis.

Team Similarity Focus

Insert Playing Style viz here to see

similartites between us and

recruiting teams

)

22/23 Countries Recruited From

Spain

England

Colombia

France

23/24 Target Countries

Spain

England

Netherlands

France

Italy

Goalkeepers

• Remit: Identify a goalkeeper who can play

primarily as a back up number two to Emi

Martinez but also be of a standard to come

into the starting eleven immediately if

necessary.

• Parameters;

• Must have an upper level of passing

range.

• Must have a reasonable percentage of

claiming crosses.

• Preferably has a lengthy time of

experience in one of the ‘Big 5’ leagues

across Europe.

Height: 186cm

Weight: 78kg

D.O.B: 26\4\1991

Foot: Left

Contract Expiry Date: June 2023

Current Wage: €35,000

Market Value: €4,000,000

• 7.5 Goals Prevented in Ligue 1

• Top shot stopper

• + 10% above average adjsave%

• Highly experienced

• May be up for a new challenge

• Can be hesitant when coming for crosses

• Will sweep up but can be reluctant to do

so

• Distribution out of hands can be awkward,

much prefers to kick

Height: 192cm

Weight: 86kg

D.O.B: 17\1\1993

Foot: Right


Current Wage: £25,000

Market Value: £18,000,000

• Strong when coming for crosses

• Reflex shot stopper

• Close range shot stopper

• Ideal as a no.2 and has European

football experience with Wolves

• Long-range passing

• Sweeping outside of the box

• Loss of confidence from two poor seasons

• PSxG – GA ratio is poor

Height: 193cm

Weight: 83kg

D.O.B: 19\7\1989

Foot: Right




• 65 th percentile for PSxG- GA

• Ranked 7 th for Goals Prevented in the

EPL in 22\23 with 2.4

• Good distributor

• Strong on claiming crosses

• Slow to leave his box & doesn’t sweep

up.

• Bournemouth may be reluctant to sell

• Age

• Happy to be a no. 2?

Center Backs

• Remit: Identify a predominantly left

footed (but not limited to) center back who

can play in any CB position within a back

four and who can also potentially be able to

play as a hybrid right-back in a back 3 out of

possession in Aston Villa’s current 4-4-2

system although this is very much a

secondary requirement. He preferably has

good aerial ability in both boxes.

• Parameters;

• Long-range passing ability.

• Strong aerial ability in both boxes.

• Strong ball carrying ability and who is

comfortable stepping into midfield with

the ball.

• Preferable UCL or UEL experience.

Height: 191cm

Weight: 84kg

D.O.B: 16\1\1997

Foot: Left



Market Value: € 35,000,000

• Excels in the 1 st phase of the build up

• Progressive passer of the ball & into good

areas

• Excellent ball carrier into midfield

• Ball recoveries

• Aerial ability needs a lot of improving

• Overall defensive output needs a lot of

improvement

• Reading of the game at various points

(concentration) can be an issue

Pau Torres

Player Similarity Model Matches

Player Team Similarity %

Alex Sandro Juventus 80.91%

Pierre Kalulu AC Milan 80.12%

Marc Guehi Crystal Palace 79.12%

Piero Hincapie

Bayer

Leverkusen

79.52%

Comparing Torres to MIngs makes a lot of sense

because both will be competing for the left center back

position its fair to assume. Torres does struggle

somewhat aerially whereas Tyrone is aggressive in his

aerial duels and is a major asset at defensive set pieces.

Where Torres excels is in his passing ability with him

being a very progressive passer, yet Tyrone is no slouch

in this department either and he has vastly improved

this area of his game under Emery. Tyrone has also

improved his positional awareness and has made gains

in this department too especially out of possession.

Torres would add a calmness in possession and his build

up play is very good and in Villa’s first phase build up he

would be the primary initiator of that phase one would

imagine

Torres would be a very welcome addition to not only add

competition for Tyrone but as an upgrade on the first

phase of Villa’s build up play. Whether Emery will start

games with two left footed centre backs is unknown.

Height: 191cm

Weight: 82kg

D.O.B: 17\4\1999

Foot: Left




• High percentile ranking in defensive

metrics across the board

• Very strong aerially

• High ceiling under correct tutelage

• Left footed progressive passer

• Commits a lot of fouls

• Generally, not a great passer of the ball

• Ball carrying isn’t his forte

• Tends to clear up-field rather than take

the time to assess.


Emmanuel

Agbadou

Mohammed Salisu


Yunis

Abdelhamid

Reims 86.39%

Reims 86.23%

Lucas Martinez Fiorentina 82.95%

Armel Bella-

Kotchap

Southampton 82.82%

Salisu has had a difficult season after being relegated with

Southampton but received plaudits for his performances,

nonetheless. At 24 years old Salisu reads the game very

well and is a strong, aggressive man marker. He is quick

off the mark and has good recovery pace. His possession

adjusted numbers are good considering he was playing in

a struggling team however, overall, his defensive numbers

are very strong across the board. He also looks to pass

forward when he can.

He is highly rated and only has a year left on his current

contract and so Southampton may be willing to listen to

offers for him. Like Tyrone he is strong & aggressive in the

air and is handy to have in both boxes. It would be

interesting to see how he performs in a better team and

with Villa needing a fuller squad Salisu may be a decent

addition.

Height: 190cm

Weight: 88kg

D.O.B: 6\4\2000

Foot: Right




• Similar profile to Pau Torres (passing etc)

• Very strong in the air

• Varied passing range but very progressive

• Competent dribbler + well timed releases

• Highly sought after

• Had a poorer season in 22\23 than his

excellent 21\22 season

• Concentration has been an issue in the

past

• Tackling


Issa Diop

Maxence Lacroix


Montassur

Talebi

West Ham

United

76.29%

Lorient 76.06%

Nathan Collins Wolves 73.71%

Victor Lindelof

Manchester

United

71.60%

Lacroix has a similar passing profile to Pau Torres yet is a

great deal stronger in his aerial ability with him hitting a

60.2% aerial win percentage compared to the Spaniard’s

55.1%, small margins, but Lacroix is dominant in the air

without a doubt. The similarity profiles seen in the table

above are visually accurate, but he does lean more to

Collins profile. Lacroix is only 23 yet has made 80

Bundesliga appearances in his 3 seasons at Wolfsburg and

so has a decent level of experience under his belt.

He tops Konsa in every metric detailed on the radar bar his

Pass% and has played all season in the right center back

position therefore he is more than comfortable in a back

four.

Like Torres Lacroix is happiest with the ball at his feet and

is confident in his ability when his team are in possession.

Right Backs

• Remit: Identify a right back who has long term

experience in playing in (but not limited to) a back

four and has the skillset to be a) an attacking full

back with good creative metric numbers and good

crossing ability and b) one that is asked to

perform a more defensive role with high

defensive metric numbers and the ability to be a

right sided center back in a back three out of

possession if need be. Ideally, he would be a

combination of the two.

• Parameters;

• Good creative numbers (xThreat, Assists etc).

• Strong defensive numbers.

• A strong dribbler with the ball and an end

product.

• Able to adapt to different roles within Aston

Villa’s system both in, and out, of possession.

• To add balance and a separate attacking

option to the right side of the starting eleven.

Height: 176cm

Weight: 71kg

D.O.B: 22\3\1996

Foot: Right




• Excellent in 1v1 situations

• Makes the right choices in possession

(med-high xThreat output)

• Would add balance to the back four

• Posts high defensive numbers

• Questions over his aerial ability

• Crossing

• Assists & xA numbers are poor

• Can be overly aggressive in his tackling

Aitor Ruibal



Vanderson AS Monaco 90.73%

Paulo Octavio Wolfsburg 86.24%

Neco Williams

Nottingham

Forest

84.23%

Issiaga Sylla Montpellier 84.08%

Originally a wide midfielder, Ruibal has been a

consistent performer for Betis having been at the club

since the start of the 2020-2021 La Liga season. Think

of a Spanish Wan-Bissaka and that pretty much sums

up Ruibal, good at the defensive stuff but unlike Wan-

Bissaka Ruibal has a skillset that means he is a little

better in the attacking phases. A competent dribbler of

the ball he is more than capable of driving into the

penalty area too the only part missing is the end

product. He is happy to bomb forward just like his

countryman Alex Moreno on the Villa left-hand side its

just that final part that can elude him (he registered no

assists from an xA of 1.1 in 22\23). In his defense he

has played limited minutes this season and found

himself in an out of the side being substituted on

multiple occasions and starting 24\37 games in all

competitions. He is a better defensive full back judging

by his numbers than Cash but he does offer slightly

more offensively.

Height: 181cm

Weight: 74kg

D.O.B: 25\4\2003

Foot: Right




• High offensive output for a full back

• High quality crosser of the ball (precision)

• Strong aerial ability

• Can play as an RCB in possession

• Composed on the ball

• 11 yellow cards in 22\23

• Not a full on attacking full back despite

offensive metric numbers

• Only 20 yo + 1 st season at the top level

so he is vastly inexperienced


Byron Castillo Leon 78.54%

Gonzalo

Montiel

Arnau Martinez


Sevilla 75.61%

Kenny Tete Fulham 78.54%

Ivan Fresneda Real Valladolid 71.27%

At just 20 years old Martinez started 33\35 games for

Girona in all competitions in 22\23, He is a vital part of

the way Girona play using a short passing and a

possession-based style of play. They are adept at

defending in wide areas and Martinez hits the 92 nd

percentile for dribblers challenged and 70 th for

dribblers tackled pointing to him being a very good

1v1 defender. He is also happy to press high hitting

the 75 th percentile for tackles in attacking third. He

achieved 3 goals and 4 assists this season and

contributed 2.47 shot creating actions so his creative

attacking threat is of great value to the team. His

technical ability and high positioning coupled with his

willingness to get forward make him a highly rated

right back, who can also play as an RCB, or a wing back

make him an attractive proposition.

Cash just outdoes him in the defensive metrics, but

overall Martinez would still be a better offensive

option.

Height: 173cm

Weight: 63kg

D.O.B: 13\4\1997

Foot: Right




• Pace + Dribbling

• Adds a dynamic dimension to the righthand

side

• Better player than his 22\23 season

• Attainable due to relegation

• Part of a relegated Southampton side

• Overall creative numbers

• Overall defensive numbers

• Aerial prowess

Kyle Walker-Peters



Alex Bangura SC Cambuur 82.94%

Alex Moreno Aston Villa 82.35%

Leonardo

Spinazzola

AS Roma 81.09%

Manu Sanchez Osasuna 80.04%

Playing in a struggling Southampton side Walker-

Peters performance levels also took a hit, as did his

overall numbers. By looking back at his 21/22 season

numbers we can compare and gauge a better

understanding of how he performs in a team which still

struggled, but slightly less so, and see if those numbers

were any better and, in this instance, we can see that

this is indeed the case.

Every metric in 21\22, bar his crossing into the box, was

higher than in 22\23 and so he should not be judged

solely on the 22\23 season. Interestingly the player

similarity model deems him a similar player to Alex

Moreno, and when watching the two players I think this

is a very fair assessment, this identifies him as an

attacking full back who has good defensive ability, and

this type of player would mean Villa would have the

option to use both flanks in their attacking phases of

play and be more balanced at the same time. More allround

options may be available, but he should be in the

conversation.

Height: 187cm

Weight: 83kg

D.O.B: 14\5\1997

Foot: Right




• High defensive output + game reading

• Can play as a right-sided center back

• Good, accurate passing range from deep

• Has a goal in him, 6 goals in 30 apps in

22\23

• Possible Bologna will take him on a

permanent deal from Hoffenheim

• Reserved in his attacking play

• Dribbling

Stefan Posch



Benjamin

Henrichs

RB Leipzig 87.35%

Danilo Juventus 85.49%

Emerson Royal

Tottenham

Hotspur

83.49%

Jason Davidson Eupen 81.06%

Posch, who is also able to play as a right sided center

back both in back four and a back three, has played the

majority of his 30 appearances this season as a right

back. Although he isn’t much of a threat in terms of

GCA, SCA and xA and the like (he prefers to sit back and

let his winger do the offensive work, ring any bells?) he

is a very progressive passer and is in the 80 th percentile

for xThreat metric from his passes. His 1v1 defending is

excellent and he possesses a powerful right foot should

a shooting opportunity arise. Cash & Posch are of a

very similar profile, but the latter is a better defensive

right back than Cash but the trade off is that his

offensive work isn’t as effective as the former, but

Posch does fit the bill for Emery’s in-possession-back –

three perfectly.

Posch spent the entire 22\23 Serie A season on loan

from Hoffenheim and at the time of writing may well

sign for the Italian club on a permanent deal.

Central Midfielders

• Remit: Identify a central midfielder who

performs well between both boxes,

possesses excellent passing ability and has a

high defensive output. Ideally, he must be a

competent ball carrier with good ball

receiving ability and positional awareness.

He should be able to play as a DM and\or as

an orthadox CM in midfield and be able to

adapt to the two different roles when

needed.

• Parameters;

• Box to box efficiency.

• High level passing range.

• Creativity from central areas.

• Preferably has had experience of

European club competition football or

international equivalent.

Height: 185cm

Weight: 68kg

D.O.B: 14\4\1999

Foot: Right




• Versatility – CM or as an AM

• Creativity on the ball in final third

• Box to box midfielder

• EPL & UCL experience

• Goal threat (late arrival into box)

• Defensive work can be sporadic (position

dependent)

• Tackling

• Marseille will not want to let him go

Matteo Guendouzi



David Silva Real Sociedad 83.40%

Sean Longstaff

Martin

Baturina

Newcastle

United

83.40%

Dinamo Zagreb 78.64%

Mateo Garcia Aris 75.17%

Since his Arsenal days Guendouzi has matured a great

deal and his on-field performances have reflected that

both in his overall numbers improving and his

versatility in being able to play in both a central

midfield role, where he is box to box, and in an

attacking midfield role. Marseille play with a midfield

four in a 3-4-3 or a 3-4-2-1 with Guendouzi fulfilling

both the LCM and RCM roles as well as the AML and

AMR roles in both these formations and so he would

slot right into the Villa midfield as well as provide an

alternative option in attacking areas should Emery see

fit to use him there. His work rate is very good, he has a

good engine, and he is dynamic in his attacking play.

Here we have him on a CM template up against John

McGinn and this is where I believe he is best suited, but

he must have a more defensive minded CM alongside

him such as Kamara as the best of his passing is done in

the middle to final third of the pitch. He would face stiff

competition for the role from the Scotsman that’s for

sure.

Height: 173cm

Weight: 60kg

D.O.B: 28\6\1997

Foot: Right




• Set piece taker

• High xThreat from passes

• High quality passing

• Stamina with ability to press high

• Creative passer

• Tackling

• Goal contribution

• Linked to top Spanish clubs

• Contract length an issue so may be

pricey

Aleix Garcia



Hakan

Calhanoglu

Inter Milan 87.96%

Anton Saletros Caen 87.96%

James Ward-

Prowse

Southampton 87.18%

Piotr Zielinski Napoli 83.17%

Garcia is a standout set piece taker with his accurate

delivery he poses a real threat from a dead ball

situation. His passing range is also a key aspect of his

play with him being able to switch play with his longrange

passing. His xThreat value of 0.23 per 90 is

testament to his key passing number of 2.46 per 90

alongside his shot creating actions of 4.81 combining

all that makes him a creative midfielder in the LCM

position. His goalscoring could do with improvement

but he is more a creative influence on the midfield

rather than a goalscoring one.

He is adept at picking up the ball deep inside his own

half in front of the back four and starting moves off

from there whether that be a long ball out to the

winger or advancing full back or simply progressing the

ball vertically with a line breaking pass into feet. He is

also able to time a tackle or interception well when

needed. A top CM who is well worth a more detailed

look at.

Height: 188cm

Weight: 78kg

D.O.B: 16\11\1999

Foot: Right




• Defensive midfielder

• High numbers across the board

• Excellent tackler + reads the game

well above his years

• Good aerial ability

• Too big a jump to EPL from Eredivisie?

• Contract length (new deal signed in April

23’)

• Goal scoring (this isn’t really his game

though)


Edson Alvarez Ajax 78.15%

Andre Gomes Lille 76.78%

Aurelien

Tchouameni

Rodri

Mats Wieffer


Real Madrid 75.52%

Manchester

City

74.58%

A tall, elegant, albeit a slightly raw one, defensive

midfielder, Wieffer has shown great promise in his first

season with Feyenoord in the Eredivisie this past

season. His timing of a tackle and when to move in and

take the ball off his opponent is an ability beyond his

years (he ranks in the 98 th percentile for ball recoveries

compared to his peers) and its his use of the ball

immediately after turning the ball over is what sets him

apart from a lot of other DM’s as he uses the ball wisely

making simple 5–10-yard passes, letting others do the

more creative phase of the passing move. That being

said, overall, his offensive numbers are very good for

his usual on-field position and to dismiss him as having

less a creative influence is unwise. He can play as a leftsided

DM in a 4-2-3-1 or as a RM or a CM in a midfield

three and so he has versatility on his side as well.

The big question is this, and with all due respect, could

he make the jump from having one full season in the

Eredivisie to playing in the EPL?

Height: 173cm

Weight: 66kg

D.O.B: 1\11\1994

Foot: Right




• Huge threat when taking set pieces

• Good passing range

• Goal scoring ability (finishing)

• Key passing

• Adds a different option in midfield

• Defensive output

• Tough season in 22/23

• New deal signed mid 23’ so will be

difficult to get a deal done plus he’s loyal

• Ball carrying


Philippe

Rommens

Go Ahead

Eagles

92.00%

Aleix Garcia Girona 87.14%

Gerard

Gumbau

James Ward-Prowse


Elche 85.67%

Douglas Luiz Aston Villa 79.15%

Ward-Prowse is no stranger to the EPL and its workings

and with him also being a set piece specialist he would

surely add something different to the squad that Villa

don’t already have. A direct free kick specialist with a

99 th percentile shots from fee kick ranking his

defensive work is what may let him down across the

course of a season as he is a capable of doing a decent

job in central midfield, but he doesn’t really set the

world alight in doing so. He can struggle when his team

do not have the ball and can be found looking over his

shoulder a lot and not looking at play in front of him or

where his midfield partner is next to him which means

they end up having to make more recovery runs due to

him not being as positionally aware as he should be.

He is a proven EPL player with good pedigree and he

should not be discounted as under a more organized

structure he may perform to a higher level.

Note: The player similarity model suggests he is a

similar profile to another potential transfer target Aleix

Garcia.

Attacking Midfielders

• Remit: Identify a top-class attacking

midfielder who has excellent dribbling

ability and posts high attacking metric

numbers. He must fit Aston Villa’s 4-4-2 and

4-2-3-1 systems. He should be able to play

on either flank in the 4-4-2 shape (if he can

play as a 10 behind the main CF in that shape

that is also a bonus). He should also be

comfortable playing across the three

attacking midfield positions in the 4-2-3-1

shape.

• Parameters;

• High level ball carrying ability.

• Possess pace and directness, especially in

wide areas.

• High creative output numbers.

• Preferably has had experience of

European club competition football or

international equivalent.

Height: 173cm

Weight: 66kg

D.O.B: 28\6\1998

Foot: Right




• Spatial awareness in between the lines

• Familiar in playing in a wide

orientated set up

• Big offensive threat output

• European football experience

• Tendency to press on his own

• Poor aerially

• Highly sought after

• Reputation as a bit of a party boy.

• No release clause (via Capology)


Iuri Medeiros Braga 95.07%

Riyad Mahrez

Manchester

City

91.62%

Mislav Orsic Southampton 90.61%

Marcus

Edwards

Pedro Goncalves


Sporting CP 89.92%

Goncalves should be Villa’s primary target alongside

another striker and possible another right back and the

reasons for this are made very clear just by looking at

this slide and the previous one! A superb attacking

midfielder who is so effective in between the

oppositions defensive and midfield lines with his close

control, excellent dribbling ability and one of the

highest xThreat per 90 values across Europe in 22\23.

His technical ability on the ball, especially inside the

penalty area is considered and he can use both feet but

is predominantly right footed. His style is to receive the

ball either centrally or wide left and either play a neat

pass out into space and continue his run into the box or

if on the left, cut inside and play a reverse pass to a

runner into the box. He is used to playing as one of two

no. 10’s behind a central striker so his versatility in also

being able to play wide left is invaluable. He is also a

regular, and competent, penalty taker

Height: 175cm

Weight: 68kg

D.O.B: 9\4\1996

Foot: Left




• High quality dribbler & a huge threat

• Can play in multiple attacking

positions

• Creative passer into dangerous areas

• Works hard defensively

• Can be a bit hit and miss performance

wise

• Prone to losing possession

Giovani Lo Celso



Leroy Sane Bayern Munich 86.69%

David Costa Lens 85.08%

Sofiane Diop Nice 85.07%

Adam Ounas Lille 82.88%

Another player who has valuable EPL experience and

who has had a relatively decent season for Villarreal in

La Liga. Left footer Lo Celso is much admired for his

close ball control and nifty footwork to evade his

opponent. He joined The Yellow Submarine on loan

under then manager Unai Emery and so the current

Villa manager not only wanted him at that time but

also knows very well what he would be getting should

the Argentine come to Villa Park.

Lo Celso is a versatile attacking midfielder who can play

up front as a withdrawn center forward in a front two,

but his best position is wide left in a midfield four in a

4-4-2 which would mean he could slot right into

Emery’s current 4-4-2 system, he can also play in the

CAM position in a 4-2-3-1 again another shape Emery

has deployed in 22\23.

He was of course on loan from Tottenham with no

option to buy included and so negotiations would be

with them although his contract has now expired.

Height: 174cm

Weight: 68kg

D.O.B: 9\12\1997

Foot: Right




• Inverted winger

• Fits the remit perfectly for a LM

• Can play effectively in a 4-4-2 and

also a 4-2-3-1

• Vast EPL experience

• End product is sometimes missing

• Poor season in 22\23

• Defensive output

• Needs to play with his head up a lot

more

Harvey Barnes



Zakaria

Aboukhlal

Toulouse 90.57%

Arnaud Nordin Montpellier 90.37%

Ismaila Sarr Watford 87.44%

Crysensio

Summerville

Leeds United 83.67%

After Leicester City’s relegation from the EPL the talk

started almost immediately about Harvey Barnes and

his future. Although he had a disappointing season in

many aspects, he was one of the better performing

players in the Leicester team scoring 13 goals from an

xG of just 8.9. However, it is best to look back at his

numbers from the previous season when Leicester

had a significantly better one finishing in 8 th in the

EPL table.

His xThreat value was over double his 22\23 number

from 0.12 to 0.26 per 90, his assists per 90 hit 0.43

compared to 0.03 in 22\23, his progressive carries,

successful dribbles and shot count were all

significantly higher than last seasons and all in -600

minutes less on the pitch than in 22\23. Barnes’

direct, jockeying, ball carrying style ending with a

burst of pace into the box, does need more of a final

moment to it, but he would flourish in Villa’s 4-4-2.

Height: 178cm

Weight: 68kg

D.O.B: 12\12\2001

Foot: Left




• Versatile across MF & the frontline

• High level creative output

• Young and hungry with a high ceiling

• Ball progressor

• Set piece taker

• Goal scoring numbers should be better

• Defensive numbers are good but need

to be possession adjusted for a full

assessment

• Cost would be higher than quoted fee

Michael Olise



Arder Guler Fenerbahce 90.49%

Dominik

Szoboszlai

RB Leipzig 89.35%

Jack Harrison Leeds United 88.96%

Yoanne Wissa Brentford 84.72%

At 21 years of age Olise is a frightening talent due to

the fact his best position has yet to be determined, still

he excels wherever he is asked to play. A competent set

piece taker he delivers with pace with his left foot. He is

an energetic box to box midfielder who can not only

play on the right side of midfield in a 3 or a 4, but also

on the right of an attacking midfield three in a 4-2-3-1

(he has also played on the right of a front 3 in a 4-3-3)

and so that versatility is what may appeal to Villa.

His slightly languid running, street football style

technique when the ball is at his feet is what sets him

apart from other midfielders. He can take his man on

and produce a shot or a pass into the box alongside his

creative output numbers make him an attractive

proposition.

The cost however would be high as his deal runs until

June 2026 and he seems happy at Palace so a £38m

valuation would be just a starting point.

Center Forwards\Strikers

• Remit: Identify a center forward or striker

who is able to play not only as a lone front

man but also able to play in a front two. He

should have the ability to hold the ball up

efficiently and bring others into play. He

should also be adept at running into space

off the ball and be spatially aware of those

around him. He should also be able to press

high and have good technical ability

.

• Parameters;

• Strong, effective hold up play.

• High level finishing ability

• High work rate off the ball.

• Works opposition defenders hard.

Height: 180cm

Weight: 73kg

D.O.B: 14\1\2000

Foot: Right




• Priority transfer target

• Exceeds high xG per 90

• Intelligent movement off the ball

• Ball control (ball receiving)

• Build up play involvement

• Aerial ability is a concern

• Must play as a CF as not as effective

from wide areas

Jonathan David



Folarin Balogun Reims 93.40%

Christopher

Nkunku

Chelsea 92.36%

Erling Haaland Manchester City 92.24%

Mauro Icardi Galatasaray 90.76%

One of Europe’s most sought after frontmen David

has just had his most productive season in terms of

goalscoring with 24 goals in 36 starts for Lille however

10 of those were in fact penalties (he is a very good

taker of them too) therefore he just underperformed

his NPxG of 15.1 in scoring 14 goals in open play. He

operates best in mainly two areas. Firstly, outside of

the box as he has excellent ball reception ability and

subsequent passing choice making him a good link

man and secondly his touch and shot choice inside the

box. He is can produce a shot out of some tight

situations where the keeper may not be expecting a

shot appear and so has an element of surprise about

him as he can also use both feet effectively when

shooting. He would be most effective as part of a front

two or as a sole striker, but he needs runners beyond

him.

His aerial prowess is not up to the standard of the rest

of his game and needs vast improvement.

Height: 180cm

Weight: 72kg

D.O.B: 16\2\2000

Foot: Right



Market Value: € 35,000,000

• High quality finisher

• Good, effective dribbler

• Posts high offensive numbers

• Cutting inside from the left-hand side

• Versatility (on-field positions)

• On a long contract so his value is high

• Already has European football next

season

• Aerial ability is ok but falls short overall

Amine Gouri



Jonathan David Lille 88.94%

Christopher

Nkunku

RB Leipzig 88.52%

Gabriel Jesus Arsenal 87.76%

Abel Ruiz Braga 86.62%

Gouri is another striker playing in Ligue 1 who has had

a fine season in front of goal scoring 15 goals and

providing 3 assists along the way. A clinical, inventive

finisher inside the box (think of Wayne Rooney type

player in these areas) he has been very impressive

exceeding his xG per 90 of 0.38 and hitting 0.49 goals

per 90. Watkins has been equally impressive its fair to

say especially in the latter half of the 22\23 season for

Villa. Gouri’s best position is as an out-and-out center

forward but in Rennes last 8 games of the season he

was had played on the left of front three in a 4-3-3, on

the left of a midfield four or in the AML left position

(hence his creative numbers increasing) and was just

as effective so he is versatile and able to play in various

attacking positions.

His aerial ability is one of his weaknesses, but he

prefers to finish using his feet anyway which is his

biggest strength. On a long contract so chances of him

being signed are probably quite slim.

Height: 180cm

Weight: 63kg

D.O.B: 10\11\1999

Foot: Right




• Effective in the no.10 position

• Link play + ball receiving on the half

turn is highly effective

• Nimble in tight areas

• Creative passing intelligence

• Should be scoring a lot more goals given

his quality

• High wages

• Possibly be a loan deal as Atletico may

not want to sell right now (unconfirmed)

Joao Felix



Marcus

Rashford

Manchester

United

81.10%

Kylian Mbappe PSG 76.87%

Rodrygo Real Madrid 76.20%

Alexander Isak

Newcastle

United

74.79%

Technically gifted, an excellent dribbler of the ball,

intelligent off the ball running and low center of gravity

are what makes Felix one of the most coveted players

in the world right now and despite a lackluster season

on loan at Chelsea he remains a highly regarded player

for many clubs. Felix does not really suit a center

forward profile instead he is more a false nine, or as a

no.10 in a 4-4-1-1, who is free to drop deep and

receive in the half spaces, drop his shoulder and create

an opening for runners beyond him. His creative

numbers are strong, and he needs to find the right club

who can play him to his strengths and compared with

Buendia in that position we can see he adds a more

goalscoring threat than the Argentine. His wages

would be high and Buendia is possibly a better fit in

that position than him, but Felix just shades the ball

carrying threat with his 2.01 successful dribbles and is

able to create openings from that. A loan would be the

only option its fair to say, but well worth it given the

season ahead.

Height: 180cm

Weight: 73kg

D.O.B: 6/3/1991

Foot: Left




• Aerial presence up front

• Intelligent movement inside the box

• Goals record in a struggling team

• Cheap option

• Link man

• Unsure whether he can play in a front

two

• Creative involvement

• Age may mean restricted minutes given

game schedule in 23\34

Rodrigo



Andre Silva

Vitoria

Guimaraes

88.48%

Ivan Toney Brentford 85.09%

Mama Balde Troyes 83.21%

Alvaro Morata Atletico Madrid 80.04%

Another striker who was part of team that had a

disappointing end to the season which ended up in

relegation. He still managed to bag 13 goals from an

xG of 8.1 in a team that struggled to create chances

plus he started just the 23 games making 31

appearances in total in the EPL. Throughout his career

he hasn’t been a prolific goal scorer it has to be said

however his link up play is worth an inclusion in this

list as however his most productive position is a

quandary, as a sole CF I am unsure whether he would

score enough goals, as part of a front two he may be

better placed to be more successful, but I’m still not

convinced. Inside the box he is a good finisher of

chances that come his way and so that would point to

him being a CF in a front three where chances are

created for him from wide areas and given his

similarity matches detailed above this seems the bestcase

scenario for him.

At 32 he would be a squad player and Leeds will need

to sell. An option worth looking into should primary

targets fail.

Selected Long List Recommendations

Goalkeepers

(In no particular order)

Player Team Notes

Guglielmo Vicario Empoli Initially in this report but has since signed for Spurs.

Anthony Patterson Sunderland Young GK who had a fine 22\23 season reaching the

EFL Championship playoffs. Promising talent.

Mory Diaw Clermont Foot 7.1 Goals Prevented in 22/23. Clermont finished in 8 th !.

Suits the league similarity model. 75.8 save%.

Mark Flekken Freiburg 3.1 Goals Prevented. Over performs PSxG of 46.4 by

conceding 44 goals. 6.9% of crosses stopped (72 nd

percentile rank in ‘Big 5’). Accurate passer of the ball.

David Raya Brentford Won’t want to be a no.2?. Sweeper keeper. 5.9 Goals

Prevented (Ranked 4 th in EPL in 22/23). 78% save%.

Center Backs


Player Team Notes

Nathan Collins Wolves Fast improving CB who is aerially dominant. Brentford

bound? High ceiling of performance level.

Emmanuel Agbadou Reims Ball playing CB with a good passing range. Strong in

1v1 situations. Carries ball well out of defense. Posts

high percentiles tackle, interception & ball recoveries.

Marc Guehi Crystal Palace High ceiling in his growth and ability. Solid aerially and

comfortable on the ball. Little chance of signing.

Jonathan Tah Bayer Leverkusen Similar profile to Konsa. Good long-range passer.

Tackling an issue for him. Happy to step into CM with

the ball. 59% aerial win% a slight concern.


Right Backs


Player Team Notes

Aaron Wan-Bissaka Manchester United

1v1 specialist. Doubts about his offensive work meant

he didn’t make the final list. Unlikely to leave United

anyway.

Vanderson AS Monaco

Played in 31\40 games in all comps in 22\23. Skillful,

quick 23 yo RB. Similar profile to Ruibal & Martinez.

High creative output & defensively very good. £52m

valuation contract until 2027.

Denziel Dumfries Inter Milan

A semi-viable option given his current club have UCL

football next season again. Links were there on him

possible leaving Italy early on. Strong offensive

output and fits the RB profile nicely.

Midfielders


Player Team Notes

Youri Tielemans Leicester City

Initially in this report but has since signed for Aston

Villa and on a free transfer, incredible bit of business.

Eberechi Eze Crystal Palace

Box to box CM who had an impressive season at Palace

earning him an England call up. High quality ball

carrier who makes things happen. Huge asset for

Palace in the next 1.5\2 years.

Romeo Lavia Southampton

19 yo highly rated and technically gifted LCM who

shined in a poor season for relegated Southampton.

Breaks up play well and can pick a through ball out

post ball recovery. Superb feet under pressure.


Attacking Midfielders


Player Team Notes

Lee Kangin Mallorca to PSG

Possibly should have acted sooner (Jan) and made an

initial offer. First in this report but has since signed for

PSG (info available on request).

Iuri Medeiros Sporting Braga

95% similarity match to Pedro Goncalves. Left footed

inverted winger who plays off the right-hand side in

Braga’s 442 system. Since moved to Al Nasr in the

UAE.

David Costa RC Lens

Right footed AM who has played as one of two no. 10’s

on the left or right. More a creative force rather than a

goalscoring one which puts him onto the long list

Strikers\Center Forwards


Player Team Notes

Moussa Dembele Lyon

Available on a free and still a possible option. Poor

goals return in 22\23.

Terem Moffi Nice

6ft 2” striker who has scored 18 goals in 33 apps for

Nice (on loan from Lorient at the time) from 15.5 xG.

0.56 NPG90 in 22\23. Permanent transfer to Nice as

part of loan.

Martin Terrier Rennes

ACL injury in Jan 22’ put paid to any possible transfer.

12 goals and 5 assists in 22 games (all comps) before

the injury. Super talent and a player I profiled last

summer for Villa.

Conclusion & Resource Summary

That concludes the recruitment plan for this

season, and I hope everyone that has taken the

time to read it has found it informative and given

everyone food for thought on Aston Villa’s

possible transfer targets ahead of the 2023-2024

season where we will need a squad not only full of

high-quality players in addition to the ones we

have already at the club but ones that are able to

perform at an even higher level with us having

Europa Conference League Football this season.

Some of these players will be familiar to many and

some may not, some of the techniques used may

be familiar and again some may not. What always

remains the same is staying true to ones trained

eye , questioning the data at every turn, using and

implementing strategies used working at, and for,

various clubs and organizations, being aware of

the way transfers and recruitment works in all its

parts, and most importantly of all be open to any

possibilities and always be willing to learn.

Although this plan is a more fan-friendly version geared towards those with

a reasonable understanding of data analysis in football, the main purpose of

it is to give fans an insight into one part of the recruitment process and how

this is constructed and carried out. In stadium scouting, video analysis and

other areas of preparation including the compilation, maintenance and

filtering of a vast database used in these analyses is also a vital component.

Resources Used

Data: theanalyst.com (Opta) | Opta via FBref.com | G.C Anaytics.net Streamlit app

Player Wages & Contract data: Capology.com

Transfer data: Transfermrkt.com

Data Analysis: Python & Excel

Visualizations: Matplotlib Python package

Kudos: mplsoccer | @bengriffs | @_JKDS

Report compiled by Gareth Cooper | Twitter: @ThatGarateyjc

Aston Villa Recruitment Plan 2022-2023

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