January 2024

Contract The Business Talk Pilot Barometer
NOTHING LEFT TO CHANCE
Neil Cooper-Smith, Senior Analyst at Business Pilot, reflects on the ‘tough year for trading’
that was 2023, but suggests that 2024’s likely General Election may provide a boost...
Last year was, most would agree, a tough
year for trading, especially as we emerged
from a significant boom following Covid, and
straight into inflationary pressures brought about
predominantly by global forces outside of our control.
It will be four years ago in March when much
of the world closed down to limit the spread of
the coronavirus, so I think we can discount any
residual ripple effect from that period on our
market going forward.
But global forces still have a disruptive effect on
our economy. The wars in the Middle East and
Ukraine continue to feed through to high prices
on our shores, and there appears to be no end in
sight in either conflict.
The latest development, which sees Yemen-based
Houthi forces attack freighters in the Red Sea
with a link to Israel, has already driven up the
price of crude oil after Iran rejected calls to end
support for the attacks.
This is on top of an expected increase in the price
of goods after some cargo ships were diverted
round the tip of Africa, rather than pass through
the Suez Canal and face the extra dangers.
These are unwelcome additional pressures on
household finances, especially after the energy
price cap increased by 5% to take into account
a rise in global gas market prices at the start of
the year.
At home, house prices remain sluggish – as they
did throughout 2023 – with Nationwide reporting
that they are about 1.8% lower than they were at
the start of 2023.
This could have a positive impact on the window,
door and glass industry, as homeowners unwilling
to put their homes on the market choose to
upgrade their existing properties instead. The fly
in the ointment is that the number of first-time
buyers dropped to its lowest level in a decade,
according to the Yorkshire Building Society.
This is potentially storing up problems for the
future as that with less new money entering the
property market, there is less money available for
refurbishment projects.
The shot in the arm in 2024 will probably come
from the likely General Election. March 6 has been
set for the last Budget before the country goes to
the polls, and many experts believe that tax cuts
will be announced in a bid to win over voters.
How this will translate into better personal
finances over the coming year is very difficult
to predict, but if it does mean consumers ‘feel’
richer, then it could have a significant impact on
the sales of windows and doors.
If homeowners feel confident enough to take out
loans for home improvement, then we should see
some of that activity return to the market this year.
The Business Pilot Barometer offers a monthly analysis of the key trends defining window and door retail,
drawing on real industry data collated by the Business Pilot customer relationship management system.
Business Pilot uses cloud-based technologies to give installers complete visibility of every element of their
operation from leads and conversions to job scheduling, cost of installation, service calls, and financial reporting.
www.businesspilot.co.uk
In fact, it will build on the slow shift we saw towards
improved confidence towards the end of 2023. It’s
difficult to read too much into December’s data
because trading activity always drops away, but
when compared with the same period in 2022, we
can see that the average number of sales was
up by almost 50% – 36.3 in December 2023,
compared to 24.3 in December 2022.
Similarly, despite a year characterised by fewer
leads overall, companies recorded 62.6 average
leads in December 2023, compared to 54.6 in
December 2022. This is a 14.7% increase. There
are also significant marketing opportunities going
into 2024. Energy efficiency and sustainability
will continue to be big drivers, especially as
conversations around climate change continue.
www.businesspilot.co.uk/barometer
16 T I JANUARY 2024 PRACTICAL CONTENT FOR THE GLAZING INSTALLER & HOME IMPROVEMENT SPECIALIST