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<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

Produkt- und Prozessdesign<br />

Informationsverarbeitung<br />

Versorgungssicherheit und Lagerhaltung<br />

Simchi Levi (2005) Managing the <strong>Supply</strong> chain,…<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

1


<strong>Supply</strong><br />

Sources:<br />

plants<br />

vendors<br />

ports<br />

Production/<br />

purchase<br />

costs<br />

Regional<br />

Warehouses:<br />

stocking<br />

points<br />

Inventory &<br />

warehousing<br />

costs<br />

Field<br />

Warehouses:<br />

stocking<br />

points<br />

Transportation<br />

costs<br />

Inventory &<br />

warehousing<br />

costs<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Customers,<br />

demand<br />

centers<br />

sinks<br />

Transportation<br />

costs<br />

2


Inventory<br />

Where do we hold inventory?<br />

Suppliers and manufacturers<br />

warehouses and distribution centers<br />

retailers<br />

Types of Inventory<br />

WIP<br />

raw materials<br />

finished goods<br />

Why do we hold inventory?<br />

Economies of scale<br />

Uncertainty in supply and demand<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

3


Understanding Inventory<br />

The inventory policy is affected by:<br />

Demand Characteristics<br />

Lead Time<br />

Number of Products<br />

Objectives<br />

Service level<br />

Minimize costs<br />

Cost Structure<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

4


Cost Structure<br />

Order costs<br />

Fixed<br />

Variable<br />

Holding Costs<br />

Insurance<br />

Maintenance and Handling<br />

Taxes<br />

Opportunity Costs<br />

Obsolescence<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

5


EOQ: A Simple Model*<br />

Book Store Mug Sales<br />

Demand is constant, at 20 units a week<br />

Fixed order cost of $12.00, no lead time<br />

Holding cost of 25% of inventory value annually<br />

Mugs cost $1.00, sell for $5.00<br />

Question<br />

How many, when to order?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

6


EOQ: A View of Inventory*<br />

Note:<br />

• No Stockouts<br />

• Order when no inventory<br />

• Order Size determines policy<br />

Order<br />

Size<br />

Inventory<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Avg. Inven<br />

Time<br />

7


EOQ: Calculating Total Cost*<br />

Purchase Cost Constant<br />

Holding Cost: (Avg. Inven) * (Holding Cost)<br />

Ordering (Setup Cost):<br />

Number of Orders * Order Cost<br />

Goal: Find the Order Quantity that Minimizes These Costs:<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

8


EOQ:Total Cost*<br />

Cost<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Total Cost<br />

0 500 1000 1500<br />

Order Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Order Cost<br />

Holding Cost<br />

9


EOQ: Optimal Order Quantity*<br />

Optimal Quantity =<br />

Q= 2∗Demand∗Setup Cost<br />

holding cost<br />

So for our problem, the optimal quantity is 316<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

10


EOQ: Important Observations*<br />

Tradeoff between set-up costs and holding costs when determining<br />

order quantity. In fact, we order so that these costs are equal per unit<br />

time<br />

Total Cost is not particularly sensitive to the optimal order quantity<br />

Order Quantity 50% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 150% 200%<br />

Cost Increase 125% 103% 101% 100% 101% 102% 108% 125%<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

11


The Effect of Demand Uncertainty<br />

Most companies treat the world as if it were predictable:<br />

Production and inventory planning are based on forecasts of demand<br />

made far in advance of the selling season<br />

Companies are aware of demand uncertainty when they create a<br />

forecast, but they design their planning process as if the forecast<br />

truly represents reality<br />

Recent technological advances have increased the level of demand<br />

uncertainty:<br />

Short product life cycles<br />

Increasing product variety<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

12


Demand Forecasts<br />

The three principles of all forecasting techniques:<br />

Forecasting is always wrong<br />

The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast<br />

Aggregate forecasts are more accurate<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

13


SnowTime Sporting Goods<br />

Fashion items have short life cycles, high variety of competitors<br />

SnowTime Sporting Goods<br />

New designs are completed<br />

One production opportunity<br />

Based on past sales, knowledge of the industry, and economic<br />

conditions, the marketing department has a probabilistic forecast<br />

The forecast averages about 13,000, but there is a chance that<br />

demand will be greater or less than this.<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

14


SnowTime Demand Scenarios<br />

Probability<br />

30%<br />

25%<br />

20%<br />

15%<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

0%<br />

8000<br />

Demand Scenarios<br />

10000<br />

12000<br />

14000<br />

Sales<br />

16000<br />

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18000<br />

15


SnowTime Costs<br />

Production cost per unit (C): $80<br />

Selling price per unit (S): $125<br />

Salvage value per unit (V): $20<br />

Fixed production cost (F): $100,000<br />

Q is production quantity, D demand<br />

Profit =<br />

Revenue - Variable Cost - Fixed Cost + Salvage<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

16


SnowTime Scenarios<br />

Scenario One:<br />

Suppose you make 12,000 jackets and demand ends up being<br />

13,000 jackets.<br />

Profit = 125(12,000) - 80(12,000) - 100,000 = $440,000<br />

Scenario Two:<br />

Suppose you make 12,000 jackets and demand ends up being<br />

11,000 jackets.<br />

Profit = 125(11,000) - 80(12,000) - 100,000 + 20(1000) = $ 335,000<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

17


SnowTime Best Solution<br />

Find order quantity that maximizes weighted average profit.<br />

Question: Will this quantity be less than, equal to, or greater than<br />

average demand?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

18


What to Make?<br />

Question: Will this quantity be less than, equal to, or greater than<br />

average demand?<br />

Average demand is 13,100<br />

Look at marginal cost Vs. marginal profit<br />

if extra jacket sold, profit is 125-80 = 45<br />

if not sold, cost is 80-20 = 60<br />

So we will make less than average<br />

Optimal quantity?<br />

<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

19


SnowTime Expected Profit<br />

Profit<br />

$400,000<br />

$300,000<br />

$200,000<br />

$100,000<br />

Expected Profit<br />

$0<br />

8000 12000 16000 20000<br />

Order Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

20


SnowTime Expected Profit<br />

Profit<br />

$400,000<br />

$300,000<br />

$200,000<br />

$100,000<br />

Expected Profit<br />

$0<br />

8000 12000 16000 20000<br />

Order Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

21


SnowTime Expected Profit<br />

Profit<br />

$400,000<br />

$300,000<br />

$200,000<br />

$100,000<br />

Expected Profit<br />

$0<br />

8000 12000 16000 20000<br />

Order Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

22


SnowTime:<br />

Important Observations<br />

Tradeoff between ordering enough to meet demand and ordering too<br />

much<br />

Several quantities have the same average profit<br />

Average profit does not tell the whole story<br />

Question: 9000 and 16000 units<br />

lead to about the same average<br />

profit, so which do we prefer?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

23


Probability of Outcomes<br />

Probability<br />

100%<br />

80%<br />

60%<br />

40%<br />

20%<br />

0%<br />

-300000<br />

-100000<br />

100000<br />

300000<br />

Cost<br />

500000<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Q=9000<br />

Q=16000<br />

24


Key Points from this Model<br />

The optimal order quantity is not necessarily equal to average<br />

forecast demand<br />

The optimal quantity depends on the relationship between marginal<br />

profit and marginal cost<br />

As order quantity increases, average profit first increases and then<br />

decreases<br />

As production quantity increases, risk increases. In other words, the<br />

probability of large gains and of large losses increases<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

25


Initial Inventory<br />

Suppose that one of the jacket designs is a model produced last year.<br />

Some inventory is left from last year<br />

Assume the same demand pattern as before<br />

If only old inventory is sold, no setup cost<br />

Question: If there are 7000 units remaining, what should SnowTime do?<br />

What should they do if there are 10,000 remaining?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

26


Initial Inventory and Profit<br />

Profit<br />

500000<br />

400000<br />

300000<br />

200000<br />

100000<br />

0<br />

5000<br />

6500<br />

8000<br />

9500<br />

11000<br />

12500<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

14000<br />

Production Quantity<br />

15500<br />

27


Initial Inventory and Profit<br />

Profit<br />

500000<br />

400000<br />

300000<br />

200000<br />

100000<br />

0<br />

5000<br />

6500<br />

8000<br />

9500<br />

11000<br />

12500<br />

14000<br />

Production Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

15500<br />

28


Initial Inventory and Profit<br />

Profit<br />

500000<br />

400000<br />

300000<br />

200000<br />

100000<br />

0<br />

5000<br />

6500<br />

8000<br />

9500<br />

11000<br />

12500<br />

14000<br />

Production Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

15500<br />

29


Initial Inventory and Profit<br />

Profit<br />

500000<br />

400000<br />

300000<br />

200000<br />

100000<br />

0<br />

5000<br />

6000<br />

7000<br />

8000<br />

9000<br />

10000<br />

11000<br />

12000<br />

13000<br />

14000<br />

Production Quantity<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

15000<br />

16000<br />

30


(s, S) Policies<br />

For some starting inventory levels, it is better not to start production<br />

If we start, we always produce to the same level<br />

Thus, we use an (s,S) policy. If the inventory level is below s, we<br />

produce up to S.<br />

s is the reorder point, and S is the order-up-to level<br />

The difference between the two levels is driven by the fixed costs<br />

associated with ordering, transportation, or manufacturing<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

31


A Multi-Period Inventory Model<br />

Often, there are multiple reorder opportunities<br />

Consider a central distribution facility which orders from a manufacturer<br />

and delivers to retailers. The distributor periodically places orders to<br />

replenish its inventory<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

32


Case Study: Electronic Component Distributor<br />

Electronic Component Distributor<br />

Parent company HQ in Japan with world-wide manufacturing<br />

All products manufactured by parent company<br />

One central warehouse in U.S.<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

33


Case Study:The <strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong><br />

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34


Demand Variability: Example 1<br />

Demand<br />

(000's)<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

Apr<br />

150<br />

75<br />

Jun<br />

Product Demand<br />

225<br />

150<br />

100<br />

Aug<br />

50<br />

Oct<br />

125<br />

Month<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

61 48 53<br />

Dec<br />

Feb<br />

104<br />

45<br />

35


Demand Variability: Example 1<br />

Frequency<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

$25,000<br />

Histogram for Value of Orders Placed in a Week<br />

$50,000<br />

$75,000<br />

$100,000<br />

$125,000<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

$150,000<br />

Value of Orders Placed in a Week<br />

$175,000<br />

$200,000<br />

36


Reminder:<br />

The Normal Distribution<br />

Standard Deviation = 10<br />

Average = 30<br />

0 10 20 30 40 50 60<br />

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Standard Deviation = 5<br />

37


The distributor holds inventory to:<br />

Satisfy demand during lead time<br />

Protect against demand uncertainty<br />

Balance fixed costs and holding costs<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

38


The Multi-Period Inventory Model<br />

Normally distributed random demand<br />

Fixed order cost plus a cost proportional to amount ordered.<br />

Inventory cost is charged per item per unit time<br />

If an order arrives and there is no inventory, the order is lost<br />

The distributor has a required service level. This is expressed as the the<br />

likelihood that the distributor will not stock out during lead time.<br />

Intuitively, what will a good policy look like?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

39


A View of (s, S) Policy<br />

Inventory Level<br />

S<br />

s<br />

0<br />

Lead<br />

Time<br />

Inventory Position<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Time<br />

40


The (s,S) Policy<br />

(s, S) Policy: Whenever the inventory position drops below a certain<br />

level, s, we order to raise the inventory position to level S.<br />

The reorder point is a function of:<br />

The Lead Time<br />

Average demand<br />

Demand variability<br />

Service level<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

41


Notation<br />

AVG = average daily demand<br />

STD = standard deviation of daily demand<br />

LT = replenishment lead time in days<br />

h = holding cost of one unit for one day<br />

SL = service level (for example, 95%). This implies that the probability of<br />

stocking out is 100%-SL (for example, 5%)<br />

Also, the Inventory Position at any time is the actual inventory plus<br />

items already ordered, but not yet delivered.<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

42


Analysis<br />

The reorder point has two components:<br />

To account for average demand during lead time:<br />

LT×AVG<br />

To account for deviations from average (we call this safety stock)<br />

z *STD * LT<br />

where z is chosen from statistical tables to ensure that the probability<br />

of stockouts during leadtime is 100%-SL.<br />

Popular z-values??<br />

0.95<br />

0.99<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

43


Example<br />

The distributor has historically observed weekly demand of:<br />

AVG = 44.6 STD = 32.1<br />

Replenishment lead time is 2 weeks, and desired service level SL = 97%<br />

Average demand during lead time is:<br />

44.6 × 2 = 89.2<br />

Safety Stock is:<br />

1.88 × 32.1 × 2<br />

= 85.3<br />

Reorder point is thus 175, or about 3.9 weeks of supply at warehouse<br />

and in the pipeline<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

44


Safety Stocks for HP Deskjet<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

45


Model Two:<br />

Fixed Costs*<br />

In addition to previous costs, a fixed cost K is paid every time an order is<br />

placed.<br />

We have seen that this motivates an (s,S) policy, where reorder point<br />

and order quantity are different.<br />

The reorder point will be the same as the previous model, in order to<br />

meet meet the service requirement:<br />

s = LT * AVG + z * AVG * L<br />

<br />

What about the order up to level?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

46


Model Two:<br />

The Order-Up-To Level*<br />

We have used the EOQ model to balance fixed, variable costs:<br />

<br />

<br />

If there was no variability in demand, we would order Q when inventory<br />

level was at LT×AVG. Why?<br />

There is variability, so we need safety stock<br />

<br />

Q= 2*K*AVG<br />

h<br />

z * AVG * LT<br />

The total order-up-to level is:<br />

S=max{Q, AVG * LT} + z * AVG * LT<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

47


Model Two: Example*<br />

Consider the previous example, but with the following additional info:<br />

fixed cost of $4500 when an order is placed<br />

$250 product cost<br />

holding cost 18% of product<br />

Weekly holding cost:<br />

h = (.18 × 250) / 52 = 0.87<br />

Order quantity<br />

Q = 2∗4500∗44.6/0.87=679<br />

Order-up-to level:<br />

safety stock + Q = 85 + 679 = 765<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

48


Risk Pooling<br />

Consider these two systems:<br />

Supplier<br />

Supplier<br />

Warehouse One<br />

Warehouse Two<br />

Warehouse<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Market One<br />

Market Two<br />

Market One<br />

Market Two<br />

49


Risk Pooling<br />

For the same service level, which system will require more inventory?<br />

Why?<br />

For the same total inventory level, which system will have better service?<br />

Why?<br />

What are the factors that affect these answers?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

50


Risk Pooling Example<br />

Compare the two systems:<br />

two products<br />

maintain 97% service level<br />

$60 order cost<br />

$.27 weekly holding cost<br />

$1.05 transportation cost per unit in decentralized system, $1.10 in<br />

centralized system<br />

1 week lead time<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

51


Risk Pooling Example<br />

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8<br />

Prod A,<br />

Market 1<br />

Prod A,<br />

Market 2<br />

Prod B,<br />

Market 1<br />

Product B,<br />

Market 2<br />

33 45 37 38 55 30 18 58<br />

46 35 41 40 26 48 18 55<br />

0 2 3 0 0 1 3 0<br />

2 4 0 0 3 1 0 0<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

52


Risk Pooling Example<br />

Warehouse Product AVG STD CV<br />

Market 1 A 39.3 13.2 .34<br />

Market 2 A 38.6 12.0 .31<br />

Market 1 B 1.125 1.36 1.21<br />

Market 2 B 1.25 1.58 1.26<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

53


Risk Pooling Example<br />

Warehouse Product AVG STD CV s S Avg.<br />

Inven.<br />

Market 1 A 39.3 13.2 .34 65 158 91<br />

Market 2 A 38.6 12.0 .31 62 154 88<br />

Market 1 B 1.125 1.36 1.21 4 26 15<br />

Market 2 B 1.25 1.58 1.26 5 27 15<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

%<br />

Dec.<br />

Cent. A 77.9 20.7 .27 118 226 132 26%<br />

Cent B 2.375 1.9 .81 6 37 20 33%<br />

54


Risk Pooling:<br />

Important Observations<br />

Centralizing inventory control reduces both safety stock and average<br />

inventory level for the same service level.<br />

This works best for<br />

High coefficient of variation, which reduces required safety stock.<br />

Negatively correlated demand. Why?<br />

What other kinds of risk pooling will we see?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

55


Risk Pooling:<br />

Types of Risk Pooling*<br />

Risk Pooling Across Markets<br />

Risk Pooling Across Products<br />

Risk Pooling Across Time<br />

Daily order up to quantity is:<br />

LT×AVG + z × AVG × √LT<br />

Orders<br />

10 11 12 13 14 15<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Demands<br />

56


To Centralize or not to Centralize<br />

What is the effect on:<br />

Safety stock?<br />

Service level?<br />

Overhead?<br />

Lead time?<br />

Transportation Costs?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

57


Centralized Systems*<br />

Centralized Decision<br />

Supplier<br />

Warehouse<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Retailers<br />

58


Centralized Distribution Systems*<br />

Question: How much inventory should management keep at each<br />

location?<br />

A good strategy:<br />

The retailer raises inventory to level S r each period<br />

The supplier raises the sum of inventory in the retailer and<br />

supplier warehouses and in transit to S s<br />

If there is not enough inventory in the warehouse to meet all<br />

demands from retailers, it is allocated so that the service level at<br />

each of the retailers will be equal.<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

59


The Value of Information<br />

Information age: potential availability of more information<br />

throughout the supply chain<br />

in modern supply chains, information replaces inventory<br />

customers needs products not just information<br />

how can information affect the design and operation of<br />

supply chains?<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

60


The Value of Information<br />

Information<br />

helps reduce variability in the SC<br />

helps suppliers make better forecasts<br />

enables the coordination of manufacturing and distribution<br />

systems<br />

enables retailes for locating desired items<br />

enables retailers to react more rapidly<br />

enables lead time reductions<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

61


The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Observation: while customer<br />

demand for specific products does<br />

not vary much, inventory and backorder<br />

levels fluctuate considerably<br />

across their supply chains<br />

ORDER LT<br />

ORDER LT<br />

ORDER LT<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

EXTERNAL DEMAND<br />

RETAILER<br />

WHOLESALER<br />

ORDER LT<br />

DISTRIBUTOR<br />

FACTORY<br />

DELIVERY LT<br />

DELIVERY LT<br />

DELIVERY LT<br />

DELIVERY LT<br />

62


The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Demand<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

Order Variations<br />

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45<br />

Period<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Sales<br />

Orders<br />

63


The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Main factors contributing to the increase in variability<br />

Demand forecasting<br />

forecasting and inventory control (min-max)<br />

Lead Time<br />

with long lead times a small change in the estimate of demand variability<br />

implies a significant change in in safety stock<br />

why?<br />

Batch Ordering<br />

distorted high variable pattern of orders (min-max)<br />

transportation discounts<br />

sales quotas<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

64


The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Price fluctuations<br />

stock up<br />

Inflated Orders<br />

shortage periods<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

65


<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

(Christopher, 1992, S.173): nicht koordinierte Bestellungen<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

66


<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

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67


The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Methods for Coping with the Bullwhip Effect<br />

Reducing Uncertainty<br />

Reducing Variability<br />

Every Day Low Pricing<br />

Lead Time Reduction<br />

Order Lead Time<br />

Information Lead Time<br />

Strategic Partnership<br />

VMI<br />

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Bullwhip Reduktion:<br />

Erklärungszugänge<br />

Varianz Reduktion<br />

Schock<br />

Filter<br />

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The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Effective Forecasts<br />

Cooperative Forecasts systems<br />

CPFR “Collaborative planning, forecasting and<br />

replenishment systems”<br />

Information for the coordination of systems<br />

consider the entire system and coordinate decisions<br />

POS data<br />

need for cooperation<br />

who will optimize???<br />

How will the savings be split between the different<br />

supply chain facilities<br />

Locating desired Products<br />

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The Value of Information -<br />

The Bullwhip Effect<br />

Lead Time Reduction<br />

ability to quickly fill customer orders<br />

reduction in the bullwhip effect<br />

more accurate forecasts<br />

reduction in finished goods inventory<br />

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Strategic Partnering<br />

Quick Response: Vendors receive POS data from retailers, and use this<br />

information to synchronize production and inventory activities at the supplier. In this<br />

strategy, the retailer still prepares individual orders, but the POS data is used by<br />

the supplier to improve forecasting and scheduling.<br />

Continuous Replenishment: Vendors receive POS data and use it prepare<br />

shipments at previously agreed upon intervals to maintain agreed to levels of<br />

inventory.<br />

Advanced Continuous Replenishment: Suppliers may gradually decrease<br />

inventory levels at the retailer’s store or distribution center as long as service levels<br />

are met. Inventory levels are thus continuously improved in a structured way.<br />

Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI):JITD<br />

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Requirements for Effective SP<br />

Advanced information systems<br />

Top management commitment<br />

Mutual trust<br />

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Important SP Issues<br />

Inventory ownership:<br />

Supplier owns the goods until they are sold<br />

Retailer owns the goods<br />

Performance measures: Fill rate, inventory level, inventory turns<br />

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Important SP Issues<br />

Confidentiality<br />

Communication and cooperation<br />

When First Brands started partnering with Kmart, Kmart often<br />

claimed that its supplier was not living up to its agreement to<br />

keep two weeks of inventory at all times. It turned out that this<br />

was due to the fact that the two companies employed different<br />

forecasting methods.<br />

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Steps in SP Implementation<br />

Contractual negotiations<br />

Ownership<br />

Credit terms<br />

Ordering decisions<br />

Performance measures<br />

Develop or integrate information systems<br />

Develop effective forecasting techniques<br />

Develop a tactical decision support tool to assist in coordinating inventory management<br />

and transportation policies<br />

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Case Study: Barilla SpA<br />

1) Barilla SpA Part A<br />

2) Barilla SpA Parts B, C and D<br />

3) Strategic Partnership<br />

Reading:<br />

1. Barilla SpA, Harvard Business School, 9-694-046<br />

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Barilla SpA Part A<br />

Barilla SpA is the world’s largest pasta manufacturer<br />

The company sells to a wide range of Italian retailers, primarily through third party distributors<br />

During the late 1980s, Barilla suffered increasing operational inefficiencies and cost penalties that<br />

resulted from large week-to-week variations in its distributors’ order patterns<br />

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Exhibit 12 Weekly Demand for Barilla Dry Products from Cortese’s Northeast Distribution Center to the<br />

Pedrignano CDC, 1989.<br />

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• What exactly is causing the distributor’s order<br />

pattern to look this way?<br />

• What are the underlying drivers of the<br />

fluctuations?<br />

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Causes for Demand Fluctuations<br />

Transportation discounts<br />

Volume discount<br />

Promotional activity<br />

No minimum or maximum order quantities<br />

Product proliferation<br />

Long order lead times<br />

Poor customer service rates<br />

Poor communication<br />

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Demand Fluctuations<br />

The extreme fluctuation in Exhibit 12 is truly remarkable when one considers the underlying<br />

aggregate demand for pasta in Italy.<br />

What does the underlying consumer demand pattern for pasta look like in Italy?<br />

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Demand Fluctuations<br />

What are the differences and similarities between the Barilla channel and the beer distribution<br />

channel?<br />

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What is the impact of demand fluctuation seen in Exhibit 12?<br />

Because the plant has high product change over costs, Barilla has either inefficient<br />

production or excess finished goods inventory<br />

Utilization of central distribution is low<br />

Workers<br />

Equipment<br />

Transportation costs are higher than necessary<br />

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What is the impact of demand fluctuation seen in Exhibit 12?<br />

The distributor must build excess capacity to hold goods bought on any type of<br />

promotion, including quantity discounts, truckload discounts and canvass period<br />

discounts<br />

What if the distributor passes the discount along to the retailers?<br />

What is the value of the promotion game?<br />

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Barilla SpA Part A (continued)<br />

To address this problem, the director of logistics suggests the implementation of Just-in-Time<br />

Distribution (JITD), with Barilla’s distributors.<br />

Under the proposed JITD system, decision-making authority for determining shipments from<br />

Barilla to a distributor would transfer from the distributor to Barilla.<br />

Specifically, rather than simply filling orders specified by the distributor, Barilla would monitor<br />

the flow of its product through the distributor’s warehouse, and then decide what to ship to the<br />

distributor and when to ship it.<br />

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Evaluation of the JITD Proposal<br />

Clearly the variation in demand is imposing additional costs on the channel. What do you think of<br />

the JITD proposal as a mechanism for reducing these costs?<br />

Why should this work?<br />

How does it work?<br />

What makes Barilla think that it can do a better job of determining a good product/delivery<br />

sequence than its distributors?<br />

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Two Key Concepts Behind JITD<br />

Replace Sequential optimization with Joint optimization<br />

Who will optimize?<br />

Eliminate some of the ‘false’ economics that drive traditional ordering processes<br />

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Implementation Issues<br />

Resistance from the Distributors<br />

“Managing stock is my job; I don’t need you to see my warehouse or my figures.”<br />

“I could improve my inventory and service level myself if you would deliver my orders more<br />

quickly; I would place my order and you would deliver within 36 hours.”<br />

“We would be giving Barilla the power to push products into our warehouse just so that Barilla<br />

can reduce its costs.”<br />

?<br />

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Implementation Issues<br />

Resistance from Sales and Marketing<br />

“Our sales levels would flatten if we put this program in place.”<br />

“How can we get the trade to push Barilla product to retailers if we don’t offer some sort of<br />

incentive?”<br />

“If space is freed up in our distributors’ warehouses…the distributors would then push our<br />

competitors’ product more than ours.”<br />

“…the distribution organization is not yet ready to handle such a sophisticated relationship.”<br />

?<br />

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How Can Maggiali<br />

Solve the Implementation Problems?<br />

Demonstrate that JITD benefits the distributors (lowering inventory, improving their service levels<br />

and increasing their returns on assets); Run experiment at one or more of Barilla’s 18 depots<br />

Maggiali needs to look at JITD not as a logistics program, but as a company-wide effort; Get top<br />

management closely involved<br />

Trust<br />

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Barilla (B) Case<br />

What did Barilla learn from the experiments in Florence and Milan?<br />

How should Barilla change the way it attempts to sell the JITD concept to its distributors?<br />

If you were a Barilla distributor, would you sign onto the program after seeing these results?<br />

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How do you evaluate the implementation process Barilla used with Cortese?<br />

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<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

- Vertragsdesign<br />

Lieferant nennt zuerst den Preis und der Händler entscheidet über<br />

die Menge,die er zum Verkauf übernimmt.<br />

Händler kann Menge q ≥<br />

p(<br />

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zum Preis w<br />

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maximale Menge : q : p(<br />

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c ≤<br />

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und verkauft<br />

Ziel: maximiere Gewinn der Wertschöpfungskette<br />

•Gewinn der gesamten Kette<br />

•isolierte Betrachtung<br />

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∧<br />

∧<br />

99


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Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

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Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

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Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

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Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

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<strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong><br />

Lösung: Vertrag zur Gewinnaufteilung<br />

<strong>Supply</strong> chain Verträge:<br />

Festlegung der Entscheidungsrechte (VMI)<br />

Preisgestaltung<br />

Mindestabnahmemenge<br />

Mengenflexibilität<br />

Rückkauf und Rückgabe<br />

Zuteilungsregeln (Rationing game)<br />

Beschaffungszeit<br />

Qualität<br />

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What is a process reference model?<br />

Process reference models integrate the well-known concepts of business process<br />

reengineering, benchmarking, and process measurement into a cross-functional framework<br />

Business Process<br />

Reengineering<br />

Capture the “as-is” state of<br />

a process and derive the<br />

desired “to-be” future state<br />

Benchmarking<br />

Quantify the operational<br />

performance of similar<br />

companies and establish<br />

internal targets based on<br />

“best-in-class” results<br />

Best Practices<br />

Analysis<br />

Characterize the<br />

management practices and<br />

software solutions that<br />

result in “best-in-class”<br />

performance<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Process Reference<br />

Model<br />

Capture the “as-is” state<br />

of a process and derive<br />

the desired “to-be” future<br />

state<br />

Quantify the operational<br />

performance of similar<br />

companies and establish<br />

internal targets based on “bestin-class”<br />

results<br />

Characterize the<br />

management practices<br />

and software solutions<br />

that result in “best-inclass”<br />

performance<br />

105


SCOR is founded on four distinct management<br />

processes<br />

“From your supplier’s supplier to your customer’s customer”<br />

SCOR spans<br />

All customer interactions, from order entry through paid invoice<br />

All physical material transactions, from your supplier’s supplier to your<br />

customer’s customer, including:<br />

Equipment, supplies, spare parts, bulk product, software, etc.<br />

All market interactions, from the understanding of aggregate demand to<br />

the fulfillment of each order<br />

Deliver<br />

Supplier’s<br />

Supplier<br />

Source<br />

Supplier<br />

Plan<br />

Source Make Source Make Deliver<br />

Make Deliver<br />

Deliver<br />

Your Company<br />

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Customer<br />

Internal or External Internal or External<br />

Source<br />

Customer’s<br />

Customer<br />

106


Processes that balance aggregate demand and supply to<br />

develop a course of action which best meets the business rules<br />

processes<br />

Plan<br />

• Demand/supply planning<br />

– Assess supply resources, aggregate<br />

and prioritize demand requirements,<br />

plan inventory, distribution<br />

requirements, production, material,<br />

and rough-cut capacity for all<br />

products and all channels<br />

• Manage planning infrastructure<br />

– Make/buy decisions, supply-chain<br />

configuration, long-term capacity<br />

and resource planning, business<br />

planing, product phase-in/phase-out,<br />

manufacturing ramp-up, end-of-life<br />

management, product-line<br />

management<br />

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Processes that procure goods and services to meet planned or<br />

actual demand<br />

Continued<br />

Source<br />

• Sourcing/material acquisition<br />

– Obtain, receive, inspect, hold, and<br />

issue material<br />

• Manage sourcing infrastructure<br />

– Vendor certification and feedback,<br />

sourcing quality, in-bound freight,<br />

component engineering, vendor<br />

contracts, initiate vendor payments<br />

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Processes that transform goods to a finished state to meet planned<br />

or actual demand<br />

Continued<br />

Make<br />

• Production execution<br />

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– Request and receive<br />

material, manufacture and<br />

test product, package, hold<br />

and/or release product<br />

• Manage make infrastructure<br />

– Engineering changes,<br />

facilities and equipment,<br />

production status,<br />

production quality, shop<br />

scheduling/sequencing,<br />

short-term capacity<br />

109


Processes that provide finished goods and services to meet planned<br />

or actual demand<br />

Continued<br />

Deliver<br />

• Order management<br />

– Enter and maintain orders, generate quotations, configure product,<br />

create, and maintain customer database, manage allocations,<br />

maintain product/price database, manage accounts receivable,<br />

credits, collections, and invoicing<br />

• Warehouse management<br />

– Pick, pack, and configure products, create customer specific<br />

packaging/labeling, consolidate orders,<br />

ship products<br />

• Transportation and installation management<br />

– Manage traffic, manage freight, manage product import/export<br />

– Schedule installation activities, perform installation, verify<br />

performance<br />

• Manage deliver infrastructure<br />

– Manage channel business rules, order rules, manage deliver<br />

inventories, manage deliver quality<br />

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Each basic supply chain is a “chain” of Source, Make,<br />

and Deliver Execution processes<br />

. . .<br />

Plan<br />

Source Make Deliver<br />

Customer & Supplier<br />

Plan Plan Plan<br />

A <strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong><br />

Customer & Supplier<br />

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Customer & Supplier<br />

Each intersection of two execution processes (Source-Make-Deliver)<br />

is a “link” in the supply chain<br />

Planning processes manage these customer-supplier links<br />

111


At Level 1, SCOR is based on four core management processes<br />

SCOR<br />

Process<br />

Plan<br />

Source<br />

Make<br />

Deliver<br />

Definitions<br />

Processes that balance aggregate demand and supply to<br />

develop a course of action which best meets the established<br />

business rules<br />

Processes that procure goods and services to meet planned or<br />

actual demand<br />

Processes that transform goods to a finished state to meet planned<br />

or actual demand<br />

Processes that provide finished goods and services to meet<br />

planned or actual demand, typically including order management,<br />

transportation management, and distribution management<br />

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1<br />

112


SCOR Level 1 metrics characterize performance<br />

from customer-facing and internal-facing perspectives<br />

SCOR Level 1<br />

<strong>Supply</strong>-<strong>Chain</strong> <strong>Management</strong> Metrics Delivery<br />

Cost Assets<br />

Performance/<br />

Quality<br />

Delivery performance ✓<br />

Order fulfillment performance ✓<br />

• Fill rate (Make-to-stock)<br />

• Order fulfillment lead time (ETO, MTO, CTO)<br />

Perfect order fulfillment ✓<br />

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Flexibility &<br />

Responsiveness<br />

<strong>Supply</strong>-chain response time ✓<br />

Production flexibility ✓<br />

Customer-Facing Internal-Facing<br />

Total supply-chain management cost ✓<br />

Value-added productivity ✓<br />

Warranty cost or returns processing cost ✓<br />

Cash-to-cash cycle time ✓<br />

Inventory days of supply ✓<br />

Asset turns ✓<br />

1<br />

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At Level 2, each SCOR process can be<br />

further described by process type<br />

SCOR<br />

Process Type<br />

Planning<br />

Execution<br />

Characteristics<br />

A process that aligns expected resources to meet expected demand<br />

requirements. Planning processes:<br />

• Balance aggregated demand and supply<br />

• Consider consistent planning horizon<br />

• (Generally) occur at regular, periodic intervals<br />

• Can contribute to supply-chain response time<br />

A process triggered by planned or actual demand that changes the state of<br />

material goods. Execution processes:<br />

• Generally involve<br />

1. Scheduling/sequencing,<br />

2. Transforming goods, and/or<br />

3. Moving goods to the next process<br />

• Can contribute to the order fulfillment cycle time<br />

Infrastructure A process that prepares, maintains, or manages information or relationships on<br />

which planning and execution processes rely<br />

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For each “SCOR Process,” Level 2 “Process Categories” represent<br />

supply-chain variations<br />

SCOR process categories reflect distinctions in how<br />

products are planned, sourced, made, and delivered<br />

Type SCOR<br />

Process<br />

Process Category Characteristics<br />

Planning Plan Which execution process is being planned<br />

(Source, Make, Deliver, <strong>Supply</strong> <strong>Chain</strong>)?<br />

Execution Source<br />

Execution Make<br />

Execution Deliver<br />

Is the sourced part standard or custom?<br />

Is the sourced part stocked by suppliers, or not?<br />

Is the manufacturing process discrete or process-based?<br />

What triggers the “Make” signal?<br />

Is the product standard or custom?<br />

Is the product stocked in finished goods, or not?<br />

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Process categories are defined by the relationship between a SCOR<br />

process and a process type<br />

“SCOR Configuration Toolkit”<br />

Process<br />

Type<br />

Planning<br />

Execution<br />

Infrastructure<br />

SCOR Process<br />

Plan Source Make Deliver<br />

P1 P2 P3 P4<br />

S1 – S3 M1 – M3 D1 – D3<br />

P0 S0 M0 D0<br />

Practitioners select appropriate process categories from the SCOR<br />

configuration toolkit to represent their supply-chain configuration(s)<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

Process<br />

Category<br />

2<br />

116


Level 4: Implementierungsebene Wareneingang<br />

Unternehmensnetzwerke<br />

117

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