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Strange Scholarship in the Wegman Report V1.0 09/26/10 #[MAS2009] John R. Mashey, ―Science Bypass - Anti-science Petition to APS from folks with SEPP, George C. Marshall Institute, Heartland, CATO,‖ November 11, 2009. www.desmogblog.com/another-silly-climate-petition-exposed #[MAS2010] John R. Mashey, ―Crescendo to Climategate Cacophony‖ www.desmogblog.com/crescendo-climategate-cacophony V1.0 03/15/10. *[MCI2010] Stephen McIntyre, Memorandum to Parliament (CRU 32) www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/c limatedata/uc3202.htm *[MCS2010 or MW] Blakeley B. McShane and Abraham J. Wyner,‖ A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?,‖ in press at the Annals of Applied Statistics: www.imstat.org/aoas www.epublications.org/ims/submission/index.php/AOAS/user/submissionFile/66 95?confirm=63ebfddf It is discussed in some detail in A.12 , in which it is labeled MW. *[MEN2010] Clive Menzies, Memorandum to Parliament (CRU 19), www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/c limatedata/uc1902.htm *[MIC2005] Patrick J. Michaels, Ed Shattered Consensus - The true state of global warming, 2005, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Copyright, GMI. It includes chapters by Michaels, McKitrick, Balling, Cerveny, Christy Legates, Oliver Frauenfeld, Davis, Baliunas, Soon&Posmentier. The Foreword is by O‘Keefe and Kueter of GMI. Chapter 2 (of 10) by McKitrick, is ―The Mann et al Northern Hemisphere ―Hockey Stick‖ Climate Index: A Tale of Due Diligence‖ occupies pp.20-49. 42 *[MIC2009] Patrick J. Michaels, Robert Balling, Jr , Climate of Extremes – Global warming science they don‘t want you to know, 2009, CATO Institute (―published in cooperation with the George C. Marshall Institute‖) WR discussion on peer review pp..200-201, hockey stick in p.217-219. *[MON2010] A. W. Montford, The Hockey Stick Illusion, 2010. This purports to tell the complete story, but the most interesting pieces are sadly missing. See [TAM2010] for a detailed review and commentary. For a fascinating history, see the Wikipedia talk page, in which any positive review, no matter how unqualified, is defended to the end. Search the second Wikipedia page for ―dog astrology.‖ I wrote a short description of errors and especially the strange propagation of the David Deming email. No one was actually willing to answer the questions, but it incurred intense complaints and multiple deletion attempts via various rules inapplicable to Wikipedia talk pages. bishophill.squarespace.com is his blog. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:The_Hockey_Stick_Illusion en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Talk:The_Hockey_Stick_Illusion&oldi d=380146816 [NOR2006] Gerald North, ―Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last Millenium,‖ 08/29/06, seminar at Texas A&M University. geotest.tamu.edu/userfiles/216/NorthH264.mp4 North describes the history of hockey stick, Barton-Whitfield letters, the NRC panel he chaired [NRC2006], asked by NAS President Cicerone in response to Rep. Boehlert in Fall 2005. 10:30 Barton-Whitfield letters 11:30 Rep. Boehlert rebukes Barton, says get NRC 15:00 Barton gets own committee 16:30 Hockey stick first to try to do error bars, widely seen 18:30 Best guess in 1990 IPCC report, chart shown often lately 19:45 Wegman Report ―We got to see it about 3 days before the Congressional hearing‖ 20:00 Wegman, Scott, Said 20:30 NRC Report, strong panel 21:40 NRC 12 Anonymous referees, 70 pages, 2 monitors to make sure every criticism answered 22:15 Regarding WR ―referees,‖ North paraphrases email:
Strange Scholarship in the Wegman Report V1.0 09/26/10 ―What about their referee job? They claimed it was refereed but in fact they just sent it out to some friends right at the last minute. And in fact, one of them that it was sent to, Grace Wahba, who some of you may know at Wisconsin, she sent me an email and she says: Hey they used my name and they said I was a referee. He sent it to me about 3 days beforehand and I sent him a bunch of criticisms which they didn‘t take into account.‖ 22:45 WR network analysis, comments about coauthorship, statisticians 25:45 Discussion of temperature reconstructions 29:30 MM got PC right, but did it make any difference? 40:30 Ice core records, low-latitudes, like hockey stick 42:00 Glacier lengths, hockey stick 42:50 Boreholes, corals 45:50 Forcings, CO2, CH4 47:00 Sunspots 49:00 Volcanoes 50:00 Other reconstructions, new studies 51:40 Spaghetti curve, look at envelope 54:15 Put spaghetti with hockey stick error bars 56:50 30-year averages warmest, 400 years likely, 1000 years plausible 58:15 end of talk 58:50 MWP likely varied globally 01:01:50 LIA seems more global 01:03:00 Does it have anything to do with AGW? No key = physics. +[NRC2006 ] Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 2,000 Years. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Past 2,000 Years. The National Academies Press, 2006. Publicly available 06/22/06. www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html See [NOR2006] for background history. *[PEA2010] Peabody Energy, Memorandum to Parliament (CRU 52), www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/memo/c limatedata/uc5202.htm #[ORE2010] Naomi Oreskes, Erik Conway, Merchants of Doubt – How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming, May 25, 2010. The long history of GMI and Singer is explored in meticulous detail. www.youtube.com/v/XXyTpY0NCp0 03/05/10 Oreskes talk at Brown U merchantsofdoubt.org 43 *[PLI2009] Ian Plimer, Heaven and Earth: Global Warming – The Missing Science, 2009. (Australia.) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_and_Earth_%28book%29 Plimer‘s pp.91-97 mostly consists of excerpts from the WR. *[RAP2008] Donald Rapp, Assessing Climate Change: temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance, 2008. This book reused parts of the WR several years later, [DEE2009, DEE2009a, DEE2010, MAS2010], including some of the text the WR plagiarized from Bradley(1999). A 2010 2 nd edition has the same issues. [REZ2009] Hadi Rezazad, Enhancement of Network Robustness and Efficiency through Evolutionary Computing, Statistical Computation and Social Network Analysis (2009) gradworks.umi.com/33/64/3364566.html [DEE2010p] shows the plagiarized text comparison. [RIG2003] J. T. Rigsby, J. L. Solka, ―Social Networks and Computer Networks – Co-membership of Clients on a Network,‖ Proc. Interface 2003. This seems to have led to [RIG2004, RIG2005]. www.galaxy.gmu.edu/interface/I03/I2003Proceedings/RigsbyJohn/RigsbyJ ohn.presentation.pdf [RIG2004] John Rigsby, Jeff Solka, ―Actor Allegiance and Blockmodel Strength,‖ May 26-29, 2004, Interface 2004. www.interfacesymposia.org/I04/I2004HTML/contents.html This is also in Computing Science and Statistics, Volume 36, edited by Said, Marchette, Solka, i.e., Proceedings of Interface 2004, A.6. www.interfacesymposia.org/I04/I2004Proceedings/RigsbyJohn/RigsbyJoh n.paper.pdf Both Program Chairs were Wegman‘s PhD Students, Solka, Marchette. (1996). Marchette was affiliated with NSWC and Johns Hopkins, Solka with NSWC, and Rigsby with NSWC. A later (10/08/04) related talk was: ―Allegiance, Blockmodels, and Computer Networks‖: www.galaxy.gmu.edu/stats/colloquia/AbstractsFall2004/TalkOct08.pdf That seems to emphasize ―social network methods for computers, ― a somewhat strange idea. The underlying graph theory is similar, but SNA
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