© Vividpixels / Dreamstime The man with greater responsibilities in the eyes of the world...
The United States remains the greatest power on the planet but its relative weight in the world economy has been declining consistently. The planet is becoming multinational in economic terms but the military power of the U.S. remains undeniable. While no longer able to compete commercially with many countries in a myriad of products, it can still crush whomsoever in military terms. The great economic and military power of the U.S. is inversely proportional to its social legitimacy in the eyes of most of humanity. On this front, the U.S. faces a multitude of dilemmas. The trends in the U.S. economy, although its weight has decreased in relative terms, continue to affect the planet. It is the largest debtor in the world and largely depends on the collective decisions of China, Japan and the European Union, plus the economies of India and Brazil are beginning to weigh in. The dollar has stopped being the extra-strong currency that it was until the early Seventies. China is accumulating the largest monetary reserves in the world, with more than one trillion dollars. If all the developed countries were to bail out on a signifi cant part of a currency that is in decline, everyone would come out losing, because the world economy would enter into a recession of unpredictable magnitude. So, among all of the aforementioned countries, they continue maintaining a U.S. economy that is damaging the entire world economy. It is a knot that no one can undo at will. The “natural” evolution of the economy seems to drive it, at any rate, to a global crisis, from which will result another economy with a correlation of forces between the powers, distinct, but today, unpredictable. There will be, yes, a distinct international monetary system. This happened with the crisis of the monetary system known as the gold standard in the Twenties. It ceased to function and the world had international payment problems for nearly three decades, until the end of the Second World War when the United States emerged as the undisputed powerhouse. In 1945, its industrial production was higher than that of the rest of the world. For that reason, it could impose the dollar as the means of inter- CURRENT EVENTS Dilemas del futuro presidente norteamericano Dilemmas of the Future American President Translated to English by Debra D. Andrist José Blanco 4 The fate of one of the most powerful nations in the history of humanity will be decided In the next elections. The juncture is marked by a deep crisis that crosses all strata of North American society, and on whose solution depends, not only of the luck of the country, but of course, the route that will be taken by other forces that determine the new global order today. The following article offers a timely refl ection on various unavoidable aspects at this point. 4 En las próximas elecciones se decidirá el destino de una de las naciones más poderosas en la historia de la humanidad. La coyuntura está marcada por una profunda crisis que atraviesa todos los órdenes de la sociedad norteamericana y de cuya solución depende no sólo la suerte de este país sino, desde luego, el rumbo que tomarán las otras fuerzas que hoy determinan el nuevo orden global. El siguiente artículo ofrece una refl exión puntual sobre varios aspectos insoslayables en este momento. Estados Unidos sigue siendo la mayor potencia del planeta, pero su peso relativo en la economía-mundo ha venido disminuyendo consistentemente. El orbe se vuelve multipolar en términos económicos, aunque el poder militar del país aún es incontestable. No puede ya competir comercialmente con muchos países en una infi nidad de productos, pero puede aplastar militarmente a cualquiera. El gran poderío económico y militar de Estados Unidos es inversamente proporcional a su legitimidad social frente a la mayor parte de la humanidad. De este modo, enfrenta una multitud de dilemas. Las tendencias de la economía estadounidense, aunque su peso haya disminuido en términos relativos, siguen afectando al planeta. Es el mayor deudor del mundo y en gran medida depende de las decisiones colectivas de China, Japón, la Unión Europea, y empiezan a pesar en ello las economías de la India y de Brasil. El dólar está dejando de ser la moneda extra fuerte que fuera hasta principios de los años setenta. China acumula las mayores reservas monetarias del mundo, con más de 1 billón (un millón de millones) de dólares. Si todos los países desarrollados se deshicieran de una parte signifi cativa de una divisa que va en declive, todos saldrían perdiendo, porque la economía mundial entraría en una recesión de magnitud imprevisible. Por eso OTOÑO, 2008 LITERAL. VOCES LATINOAMERICANAS 3 5
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