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Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris

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Revue <strong>de</strong> Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka C;ape-Rivista Stampa-Dentro <strong>de</strong> la Prensa-Baszn Oz<strong>et</strong>i<br />

FINANCIAL TIMES TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7 2006<br />

Iraq: <strong>de</strong>mographic<br />

breakdown<br />

I<strong>de</strong>a of<br />

dividing<br />

Iraq into<br />

three wins<br />

adherents<br />

As the US casts around for an exit strategy from<br />

the Iraq morass, the possibility of partition is<br />

increasingly talked of But the cure could be<br />

worse than the disease, reports Roula Khalaf<br />

In the run-up to the Iraq war<br />

m 2003 Arab allIes of the US<br />

unIted In warnIng that<br />

regIme change must preserve<br />

the country's temtonal<br />

mtegrity<br />

The only fear that loomed<br />

larger than the threat of<br />

Saddam Hussem was the msmtegratIon<br />

of an Important<br />

Arab states<br />

Three years on, as Iraq is<br />

tom by sectarian stnfe and<br />

the US looks for an eXIt<br />

strategy, some voices in<br />

Washmgton have started to<br />

ask wh<strong>et</strong>her the pnce of terntorial<br />

mtegrlty IS worth<br />

paying<br />

The WhIte House stIll<br />

mamtams that partitIon IS a<br />

"non-starter" But some<br />

form of separatIOn has now<br />

become a fashIonable concept,<br />

promment in the US<br />

<strong>de</strong>bate over Iraq's future<br />

Advocates say the Kurds<br />

have enJoyed autonomy in<br />

the north for more than a<br />

<strong>de</strong>ca<strong>de</strong> and SULUlland Shia<br />

milItants have been slaughtenng<br />

each other for months<br />

so they too mIght be mIght<br />

be b<strong>et</strong>ter off going theIr separate<br />

ways<br />

Suoh a solution, the argument<br />

goes, would allow fot<br />

an or<strong>de</strong>rly outcome and permit<br />

US forces to WIthdraw<br />

Y<strong>et</strong> Implementing any<br />

plan for separatIon has dangerous<br />

ImplIcatIOns that<br />

extend beyond the bor<strong>de</strong>rs of<br />

Iraq, provokmg a much nas-<br />

~<br />

tIer and WI<strong>de</strong>r COnflIct over<br />

control of tern tory and OIl<br />

resources.<br />

WhIle Kurds and some<br />

Shla Islamlst partIes in<strong>de</strong>ed<br />

favour a loose fe<strong>de</strong>ratIon, a<br />

survey by the US InternatIOnal<br />

RepublIcan InstItute<br />

m June showed most IrC'qls,<br />

mcludmg m the Shla communIty,<br />

oppose partItIon<br />

"That people are talkmg<br />

about It [partItIon] IS an<br />

mdlcatIon of how bad the<br />

SItuatIOn IS and a recogmtIon<br />

at last that there IS CIVIl<br />

war ragIng," says Lakhdar<br />

Brahlml, the former UN<br />

envoy to Iraq. "But one must<br />

be extremely careful and<br />

people have to un<strong>de</strong>rstand<br />

that the alternatIve to a<br />

umted Iraq IS not three m<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt<br />

entItIes, but chaos<br />

that will expand to all the<br />

regIon"<br />

Fe<strong>de</strong>ralism has been one<br />

of the most dIVISIve Issues<br />

smce the collapse of the Hussem<br />

regIme It was at the<br />

heart of the mspute over the<br />

constItutIOn last year, WIth<br />

Sunm Aiabs lea<strong>de</strong>rs opposed<br />

to Shla partIes' mcluslOn of<br />

a clause that allows for the<br />

formatIOn of southern fed-<br />

eral regions, worned It<br />

would eventually lead to the<br />

break-up of Iraq and <strong>de</strong>pnve<br />

their oil-poor regIOns of<br />

mcome<br />

Another objectIon was<br />

over oil dIstnbutIon the constItutIon<br />

says the central<br />

Majority groups<br />

a Kurd<br />

!!!!!!!!!!I<br />

Sunm Arab<br />

_ Sunm Arab/Kurd mix<br />

~ ShlaArab<br />

o ShlaiSunm Arab mix<br />

,0 Sunm Turkoman<br />

o Sparsely populated<br />

government should be<br />

allowed to control eXlstmg<br />

011 fIelds but IS vague on<br />

who should control newly<br />

<strong>de</strong>veloped fIelds<br />

In the US, advocates of<br />

partItIOn mclu<strong>de</strong> Senator Joe<br />

Bl<strong>de</strong>n, the rankmg <strong>de</strong>mocrat<br />

on the Senate ForeIgn RelatIOns<br />

CommIttee, and LeslIe<br />

Gelb, preSI<strong>de</strong>nt Emeritus of<br />

the CounCIl on ForeIgn Relations<br />

They fIrst argued m a<br />

New York TImes article m<br />

May that US polIcy should<br />

shIft to establIshmg three<br />

autonomous regIOns, each<br />

The minute you say<br />

we're going to make<br />

three autonomous<br />

. ,<br />

regions, you re<br />

likely to kick off a<br />

huge civil war'<br />

responSIble for their own<br />

domestIc laws, admiOlstratIon<br />

and u'ltemal security.<br />

The central government<br />

would control bor<strong>de</strong>r<br />

<strong>de</strong>fence, foreIgn affairs, and<br />

oil revenues. Baghdad,<br />

un<strong>de</strong>r the plan, would<br />

become a fe<strong>de</strong>ral zone, WIth<br />

areas of mixed populatIons<br />

receIVIng multI-sectanan<br />

and internatIonal polIce protectIon<br />

But James Baker, the<br />

former US secr<strong>et</strong>ary of state<br />

who IS leadmg a group s<strong>et</strong><br />

up by Congress to make recommendatIOns<br />

on Iraq pol-<br />

ICY, has raised senous<br />

doubts about partitIOn,<br />

pomtmg out that many IraqI<br />

cItIes have mIXed Shla and<br />

Sunm reSI<strong>de</strong>nts<br />

"How do you draw the<br />

boundanes?" he told ABC<br />

TeleviSIOn last month "And<br />

the mmute you say we're<br />

gomg to do that and make<br />

three autonomous regIons,<br />

you're lIkely to kIck off a<br />

huge CiVIlwar."<br />

MIchael O'Hanlon, senior<br />

fellow at the Brookmgs InstItutIon<br />

m Washmgton, says<br />

one way IS for the US to help<br />

enable voluntary <strong>et</strong>hnic relocatIon<br />

WIthin Iraq<br />

Some 100,000 IraqIS<br />

already are mternally dISplaced,<br />

he notes, argumg<br />

that the Sunm could be persua<strong>de</strong>d<br />

to accept a form of<br />

partItIOn If the central governmg<br />

body mstributed oil<br />

revenues eqUItably, on a per<br />

capIta baSIS, rather than on<br />

geography<br />

In the Arab world, diVIdmg<br />

Iraq - takmg It back to a<br />

three-provlUce system that<br />

eXIsted un<strong>de</strong>r the Ottoman<br />

empIre - puts m questIon<br />

the whole structure of mo<strong>de</strong>rn<br />

states m the regIon and<br />

s<strong>et</strong>s a dangerous prece<strong>de</strong>nt<br />

"Many Arabs who WIllcertamly<br />

mterpr<strong>et</strong> the (partitIon)<br />

proposal as an effort to<br />

fragment Iraq to Israel's benefIt,"<br />

analyst Michael Young<br />

wrote recently m Lebanon's<br />

DaIly Star.<br />

"You will hear the famIlIar<br />

tropes that thIS IS all part of<br />

a vast neo-conservatlve<br />

project to weaken the Arab<br />

world"<br />

In admtlOn to facmg stIff<br />

resIstance from the Sunm of<br />

Iraq, Arab analysts say that<br />

partItion would ups<strong>et</strong> the<br />

balance of power In tile<br />

regIOn and potentIally spark<br />

multIple conflIcts<br />

A separate Shla entIty<br />

could encourage other Shla<br />

mmontIes to <strong>de</strong>mand theIr<br />

own autonomy, and fIrmly<br />

put southern Iraq un<strong>de</strong>r Iraman<br />

mfluence. A Kurdish<br />

entIty, meanwhIle, could<br />

provoke interventIOn from<br />

Turkey, afraId of the impact<br />

on its own KurdIsh minonty.<br />

A SUllllI region may well be<br />

controlled by extremIst<br />

Islamlsts, invitmg mterventIon<br />

from Sunm Arab states<br />

"PartitIon IS a mghtmare -<br />

you'd have a faIled Sunm<br />

state, an al-Qaeda state,"<br />

says Nawaf Obald, a Saum<br />

security analyst and government<br />

adVIser<br />

Anthony Cor<strong>de</strong>sman, MIddle<br />

East expert at Washmgton's<br />

Centre for StrategIc<br />

and International StudIes,<br />

says some form of partItIon<br />

may become meVItable but It<br />

would only be practIcal If It<br />

is the product of politIcal<br />

comprOmIse by IraqIs themselves,<br />

not an ImposItIon<br />

from the outSI<strong>de</strong><br />

"One of the great problems<br />

IS that thIS has to play out<br />

Wlthm Iraq," he says<br />

But Mr Ilrahimi, the<br />

former UN envoy, says the<br />

unfortunate thing about<br />

the Iraq <strong>de</strong>bate IS that "no<br />

one IS talkmg about Iraq any<br />

more, but about how the<br />

BntIsh and the US will g<strong>et</strong><br />

out"<br />

IraqIs, he adds, are diVI<strong>de</strong>d<br />

enough as it is "ForeIgners<br />

should not make diVISIOns<br />

worse than they are "<br />

17

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