Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
Bulletin de liaison et d'information - Institut kurde de Paris
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Revue <strong>de</strong> Presse-Press Review-Berhevoka C;ape-Rivista Stampa-Dentro <strong>de</strong> la Prensa-Baszn Oz<strong>et</strong>i<br />
FINANCIAL TIMES TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7 2006<br />
Iraq: <strong>de</strong>mographic<br />
breakdown<br />
I<strong>de</strong>a of<br />
dividing<br />
Iraq into<br />
three wins<br />
adherents<br />
As the US casts around for an exit strategy from<br />
the Iraq morass, the possibility of partition is<br />
increasingly talked of But the cure could be<br />
worse than the disease, reports Roula Khalaf<br />
In the run-up to the Iraq war<br />
m 2003 Arab allIes of the US<br />
unIted In warnIng that<br />
regIme change must preserve<br />
the country's temtonal<br />
mtegrity<br />
The only fear that loomed<br />
larger than the threat of<br />
Saddam Hussem was the msmtegratIon<br />
of an Important<br />
Arab states<br />
Three years on, as Iraq is<br />
tom by sectarian stnfe and<br />
the US looks for an eXIt<br />
strategy, some voices in<br />
Washmgton have started to<br />
ask wh<strong>et</strong>her the pnce of terntorial<br />
mtegrlty IS worth<br />
paying<br />
The WhIte House stIll<br />
mamtams that partitIon IS a<br />
"non-starter" But some<br />
form of separatIOn has now<br />
become a fashIonable concept,<br />
promment in the US<br />
<strong>de</strong>bate over Iraq's future<br />
Advocates say the Kurds<br />
have enJoyed autonomy in<br />
the north for more than a<br />
<strong>de</strong>ca<strong>de</strong> and SULUlland Shia<br />
milItants have been slaughtenng<br />
each other for months<br />
so they too mIght be mIght<br />
be b<strong>et</strong>ter off going theIr separate<br />
ways<br />
Suoh a solution, the argument<br />
goes, would allow fot<br />
an or<strong>de</strong>rly outcome and permit<br />
US forces to WIthdraw<br />
Y<strong>et</strong> Implementing any<br />
plan for separatIon has dangerous<br />
ImplIcatIOns that<br />
extend beyond the bor<strong>de</strong>rs of<br />
Iraq, provokmg a much nas-<br />
~<br />
tIer and WI<strong>de</strong>r COnflIct over<br />
control of tern tory and OIl<br />
resources.<br />
WhIle Kurds and some<br />
Shla Islamlst partIes in<strong>de</strong>ed<br />
favour a loose fe<strong>de</strong>ratIon, a<br />
survey by the US InternatIOnal<br />
RepublIcan InstItute<br />
m June showed most IrC'qls,<br />
mcludmg m the Shla communIty,<br />
oppose partItIon<br />
"That people are talkmg<br />
about It [partItIon] IS an<br />
mdlcatIon of how bad the<br />
SItuatIOn IS and a recogmtIon<br />
at last that there IS CIVIl<br />
war ragIng," says Lakhdar<br />
Brahlml, the former UN<br />
envoy to Iraq. "But one must<br />
be extremely careful and<br />
people have to un<strong>de</strong>rstand<br />
that the alternatIve to a<br />
umted Iraq IS not three m<strong>de</strong>pen<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
entItIes, but chaos<br />
that will expand to all the<br />
regIon"<br />
Fe<strong>de</strong>ralism has been one<br />
of the most dIVISIve Issues<br />
smce the collapse of the Hussem<br />
regIme It was at the<br />
heart of the mspute over the<br />
constItutIOn last year, WIth<br />
Sunm Aiabs lea<strong>de</strong>rs opposed<br />
to Shla partIes' mcluslOn of<br />
a clause that allows for the<br />
formatIOn of southern fed-<br />
eral regions, worned It<br />
would eventually lead to the<br />
break-up of Iraq and <strong>de</strong>pnve<br />
their oil-poor regIOns of<br />
mcome<br />
Another objectIon was<br />
over oil dIstnbutIon the constItutIon<br />
says the central<br />
Majority groups<br />
a Kurd<br />
!!!!!!!!!!I<br />
Sunm Arab<br />
_ Sunm Arab/Kurd mix<br />
~ ShlaArab<br />
o ShlaiSunm Arab mix<br />
,0 Sunm Turkoman<br />
o Sparsely populated<br />
government should be<br />
allowed to control eXlstmg<br />
011 fIelds but IS vague on<br />
who should control newly<br />
<strong>de</strong>veloped fIelds<br />
In the US, advocates of<br />
partItIOn mclu<strong>de</strong> Senator Joe<br />
Bl<strong>de</strong>n, the rankmg <strong>de</strong>mocrat<br />
on the Senate ForeIgn RelatIOns<br />
CommIttee, and LeslIe<br />
Gelb, preSI<strong>de</strong>nt Emeritus of<br />
the CounCIl on ForeIgn Relations<br />
They fIrst argued m a<br />
New York TImes article m<br />
May that US polIcy should<br />
shIft to establIshmg three<br />
autonomous regIOns, each<br />
The minute you say<br />
we're going to make<br />
three autonomous<br />
. ,<br />
regions, you re<br />
likely to kick off a<br />
huge civil war'<br />
responSIble for their own<br />
domestIc laws, admiOlstratIon<br />
and u'ltemal security.<br />
The central government<br />
would control bor<strong>de</strong>r<br />
<strong>de</strong>fence, foreIgn affairs, and<br />
oil revenues. Baghdad,<br />
un<strong>de</strong>r the plan, would<br />
become a fe<strong>de</strong>ral zone, WIth<br />
areas of mixed populatIons<br />
receIVIng multI-sectanan<br />
and internatIonal polIce protectIon<br />
But James Baker, the<br />
former US secr<strong>et</strong>ary of state<br />
who IS leadmg a group s<strong>et</strong><br />
up by Congress to make recommendatIOns<br />
on Iraq pol-<br />
ICY, has raised senous<br />
doubts about partitIOn,<br />
pomtmg out that many IraqI<br />
cItIes have mIXed Shla and<br />
Sunm reSI<strong>de</strong>nts<br />
"How do you draw the<br />
boundanes?" he told ABC<br />
TeleviSIOn last month "And<br />
the mmute you say we're<br />
gomg to do that and make<br />
three autonomous regIons,<br />
you're lIkely to kIck off a<br />
huge CiVIlwar."<br />
MIchael O'Hanlon, senior<br />
fellow at the Brookmgs InstItutIon<br />
m Washmgton, says<br />
one way IS for the US to help<br />
enable voluntary <strong>et</strong>hnic relocatIon<br />
WIthin Iraq<br />
Some 100,000 IraqIS<br />
already are mternally dISplaced,<br />
he notes, argumg<br />
that the Sunm could be persua<strong>de</strong>d<br />
to accept a form of<br />
partItIOn If the central governmg<br />
body mstributed oil<br />
revenues eqUItably, on a per<br />
capIta baSIS, rather than on<br />
geography<br />
In the Arab world, diVIdmg<br />
Iraq - takmg It back to a<br />
three-provlUce system that<br />
eXIsted un<strong>de</strong>r the Ottoman<br />
empIre - puts m questIon<br />
the whole structure of mo<strong>de</strong>rn<br />
states m the regIon and<br />
s<strong>et</strong>s a dangerous prece<strong>de</strong>nt<br />
"Many Arabs who WIllcertamly<br />
mterpr<strong>et</strong> the (partitIon)<br />
proposal as an effort to<br />
fragment Iraq to Israel's benefIt,"<br />
analyst Michael Young<br />
wrote recently m Lebanon's<br />
DaIly Star.<br />
"You will hear the famIlIar<br />
tropes that thIS IS all part of<br />
a vast neo-conservatlve<br />
project to weaken the Arab<br />
world"<br />
In admtlOn to facmg stIff<br />
resIstance from the Sunm of<br />
Iraq, Arab analysts say that<br />
partItion would ups<strong>et</strong> the<br />
balance of power In tile<br />
regIOn and potentIally spark<br />
multIple conflIcts<br />
A separate Shla entIty<br />
could encourage other Shla<br />
mmontIes to <strong>de</strong>mand theIr<br />
own autonomy, and fIrmly<br />
put southern Iraq un<strong>de</strong>r Iraman<br />
mfluence. A Kurdish<br />
entIty, meanwhIle, could<br />
provoke interventIOn from<br />
Turkey, afraId of the impact<br />
on its own KurdIsh minonty.<br />
A SUllllI region may well be<br />
controlled by extremIst<br />
Islamlsts, invitmg mterventIon<br />
from Sunm Arab states<br />
"PartitIon IS a mghtmare -<br />
you'd have a faIled Sunm<br />
state, an al-Qaeda state,"<br />
says Nawaf Obald, a Saum<br />
security analyst and government<br />
adVIser<br />
Anthony Cor<strong>de</strong>sman, MIddle<br />
East expert at Washmgton's<br />
Centre for StrategIc<br />
and International StudIes,<br />
says some form of partItIon<br />
may become meVItable but It<br />
would only be practIcal If It<br />
is the product of politIcal<br />
comprOmIse by IraqIs themselves,<br />
not an ImposItIon<br />
from the outSI<strong>de</strong><br />
"One of the great problems<br />
IS that thIS has to play out<br />
Wlthm Iraq," he says<br />
But Mr Ilrahimi, the<br />
former UN envoy, says the<br />
unfortunate thing about<br />
the Iraq <strong>de</strong>bate IS that "no<br />
one IS talkmg about Iraq any<br />
more, but about how the<br />
BntIsh and the US will g<strong>et</strong><br />
out"<br />
IraqIs, he adds, are diVI<strong>de</strong>d<br />
enough as it is "ForeIgners<br />
should not make diVISIOns<br />
worse than they are "<br />
17