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#22 (206), 9-15.V, 2012 w.<br />
saerTo gazeTi<br />
19<br />
msoflio presis mixedviT<br />
sxvadasxva politika _<br />
sxvadasxva gamokvleva: amerikeli<br />
manipulatori saqarTvelosa<br />
da somxeTSi.<br />
am dReebSi sainformacio<br />
saagentom (Ðåãíóì) swored<br />
aseTi saTauriT gamoaqveyna<br />
vigen akopianis werili. yovelTvis<br />
sainteresoa iseTi<br />
opusis komentireba, roca<br />
igi yuradRebasa da mraval-<br />
Srian analizs imsaxurebs.<br />
werilis avtori konkretuli<br />
magaliTebiT afasebs<br />
`rbili Zalebis~ amerikuli<br />
institutebis saqmianobas<br />
saqarTvelosa da somxeTSi<br />
da gamoaqvs mTavari daskvna:<br />
`NDI-is `sociologTa~ Zalisxmevis<br />
Sedegad, saqarTveloSi<br />
Turme iseTi viTarebaa,<br />
rom saakaSvilis mowinaaRmdegeebs<br />
fexqveS miwa<br />
eclebaT, xolo somxeTSi<br />
xelisuflebis strategiuli<br />
mizani Tavidanve absurduli<br />
da miuRwevelia. ur-<br />
TierTobis ra etapze arian<br />
axla amerikis SeerTebuli<br />
Statebi saqarTvelos da<br />
somxeTis xelisuflebasTan<br />
da ra amocanebis gadawyvetas<br />
apireben momavalSi,<br />
mkiTxvelma Tavadve ivaraudos~.<br />
am varaudebiT mivdivarT<br />
daskvnamde, rom amerikis<br />
SeerTebuli Statebi nacionaluri<br />
demokratiuli<br />
institutisa (NDI) da soft power-is<br />
sxva instrumentebiT<br />
yovelmxriv mxars uWers saakaSvilis<br />
xelisuflebas<br />
saqarTveloSi, xolo somxeTSi<br />
morigi feradi revoluciisTvis<br />
niadags amzadeben.<br />
gaurkvevelia, ram ganapiroba<br />
aseTi strategia somxeTis<br />
mimarT, romelic egreT<br />
wodebul komplementarul,<br />
anu urTierTSemavsebel<br />
politikas atarebs da<br />
romelsac amerikis SeerTebul<br />
StatebSi, mravalmilioniani<br />
diasporis saxiT,<br />
sociologiuri gamokiTxvebis<br />
safasuri samxreT kavkasiaSi<br />
Zlieri resursi gaaCnia. es<br />
erTaderTi kiTxva rodia,<br />
romelic am opusis kiTxvis<br />
mere giCndeba. bevrad ufro<br />
saintereso sxva problemaa:<br />
ramdenad reprezentulia<br />
sazogadoebis sociologiuri<br />
gamokiTxvebi, romlebsac<br />
amerikuli institutebi atareben?<br />
nuTu marTla ar<br />
sZulT sinamdvilis deformacia,<br />
romelsac vaSington-<br />
Si, `zbignev bJezinskis feradi<br />
revoluciebis laboratoriaSi~<br />
damuSavebuli sqemebisTvis<br />
mizanmimarTulad<br />
iyeneben?<br />
rasakvirvelia, SeiZleboda,<br />
gagveanalizebina Rrmaazrovani<br />
da urTierTgamomricxavi<br />
mosazrebebi imis<br />
Sesaxeb, ratom da ra mizniT<br />
daafiqsira NDI-m miliarder<br />
biZina ivaniSvilis reitingis<br />
vardna. nuTu simarTlea,<br />
TiTqos zemoT dasaxelebul<br />
`laboratoriaSi~<br />
gadawyvites (Sesabamisi gankargulebis<br />
Semdeg), rom saqarTveloSi<br />
feradi revoluciebis<br />
yovlisSemmusvreli<br />
meqanizmi jerjerobiT<br />
ar aamuSaon, xolo somxeTSi<br />
SesaZlebeli iqneba sxva variantebic?<br />
yvela es sqema irRveva,<br />
Tuki davuSvebT (Tundac<br />
yvelaze Tamami hipotezis<br />
saxiT), rom gamocdilma da<br />
avtoritetulma amerikulma<br />
organizaciam, mTels msoflioSi<br />
sakuTari avtoritetis<br />
damcvelma, ubralod daafiqsira<br />
is, rac sinamdvileSia<br />
_ reitingi marTlac<br />
daeca. magram ratom? werilis<br />
avtori da misi qarTveli<br />
kolegebi rTul da<br />
`konspirologiur~ pasuxs<br />
iZlevian _ imitom, rom mii-<br />
Res SekveTa `xelisuflebis<br />
oponents `mouWiron~. amitomac,<br />
aseTi gamokTxvebis ndoba<br />
ar SeiZleba; xolo Tu<br />
ivaniSvili arCevnebs waagebs,<br />
kidev erTxel gamoCndeba,<br />
ra veragi roli akisria<br />
amerikul institutebs<br />
sxva qveynebis politikur<br />
cxovrebaSi.<br />
Cndeba mniSvnelovani<br />
kiTxvac: saqarTveloSi opoziciisTvis<br />
yelSi waWera da<br />
piriqiT, masze zemoqmedeba<br />
somxeTSi xelisuflebis Sesacvlelad,<br />
amerikis Seer-<br />
Tebuli StatebisTvis imdenad<br />
mniSvnelovania, rom mzad<br />
arian, NDI-is (da misi<br />
partniorebis, maT Soris<br />
Gallup) avtoriteti Seswiron<br />
mas, oRondac wamier mizans<br />
miaRwion im regionSi,<br />
romelic amerikis strategiuli<br />
interesebis periferiul<br />
teritoriazea?<br />
ufro swori iqneboda,<br />
gvemsjela, ramdenad miesadageba<br />
postsabWoTa teritorias<br />
sazogadoebrivi<br />
kvlevis is meTodika, romelic<br />
SeimuSaves da aqtiurad<br />
iyeneben demokratiuli<br />
tradiciebis dasavlur saxelmwifoebSi.<br />
mivaqcioT yuradReba:<br />
NDI-is monacemebiT, pirvel<br />
adgilzea saqarTvelos ka-<br />
Tolikos-patriarqi, meoreze<br />
_ Sinagan saqmeTa ministri<br />
vano merabiSvili, mesameze _<br />
Tbilisis meri gigi ugulava,<br />
meoTxeze _ prezidenti<br />
mixeil saakaSvili. am reitingSi<br />
biZina ivaniSvils meaTe<br />
adgili ergo. qarTveli<br />
opozicionerebisTvisac es<br />
reitingi aSkarad Seusabamoa<br />
realobasTan.<br />
postsabWoTa teritoriaze<br />
xelisuflebis demokratiuli<br />
gziT Secvlis gamocdileba<br />
ar gaaCniaT da<br />
qarTveli (somexi, rusi,<br />
azerbaijaneli) amomrCeveli<br />
ver acnobierebs, rom urnaSi<br />
Cagdebuli biuleteniT wydeba<br />
ara romelime abstraqtuli<br />
proeqtis, aramed misi<br />
da misi Svilebis bedi. amitomac,<br />
postsabWoeli amomr-<br />
Ceveli xmas aZlevs yvelaze<br />
martivi motivaciis gamo:<br />
moswons Zlieri, warmatebuli,<br />
aqtiuri, saqmiani da rac<br />
mTavaria, Zalauflebis berketebis<br />
mqone adamiani; xalxi<br />
xmas aZlevs da ar acnobierebs,<br />
rom xelisufleba<br />
ar unda iyos personificirebuli.<br />
xelisuflebas xmas<br />
imitom aZleven, rom eSiniaT<br />
cvlilebebis, destabilizaciis,<br />
aSinebT ucnobi saxeebi...<br />
sinamdvileSi, reitingi<br />
ecema ara mxolod imitom,<br />
rom NDI sazogadoebrivi<br />
azriT manipulirebs, aramed<br />
imitom, rom yofili sabWoTa<br />
kavSiris teritoriaze mcxovrebi<br />
amomrCevlebi ver acnobierebn<br />
sakuTari Zalis<br />
fass. maT eimedebaT xelisuflebis<br />
an misi oponentis<br />
Zala; amitomac opozicias<br />
gansakuTrebuli SemarTeba<br />
marTebs.<br />
axla ki mivadeqiT kidev<br />
erT mTavar kiTxvas _ ramdenad<br />
relevanturia sazogadoebrivi<br />
azrisa da reitingebis<br />
kvleva, roca postsabWoTa<br />
sociums sxva sazogadoebebisTvis<br />
(faseulobebisa<br />
da demokratiis gamocdilebis<br />
sxva sistemebiT)<br />
gankuTvnili meTodikiT ikvleven?<br />
Znelad auxsni amerikel<br />
sociologs, rom Tu xelisuflebas<br />
xmas aZleven, ara<br />
imitom, rom eSiniaT an gansakuTrebulad<br />
uyvarT es<br />
xelisufleba, prezidenti an<br />
ministri; maT aSinebT kardinaluri<br />
gardaqmnebi da<br />
ar sjeraT, rom daqsasuli<br />
opozicia, Zlieri da moqmedi<br />
xelisuflebis fonze, mis<br />
cxovrebas gaaumjobesebs da<br />
qveynis saerTo mdgomareobas<br />
Secvlis.<br />
vestnik kavkaza<br />
putinis istoriis gakveTilebi<br />
vladimir putini, romelmac<br />
orSabaTs Tavisi<br />
mesame saprezidento vadis<br />
aTvla daiwyo, ar gamoricxavs,<br />
rom 2018 wels<br />
gadairCion; Tumca, misi<br />
mtkicebiT, Zalauflebas<br />
maSinve Seeleva, Tuki dainaxavs,<br />
rom xalxi mxars<br />
aRar uWers.<br />
putinis msgavsi mmarTvelebi<br />
Znelad Tmoben Zalauflebas<br />
_ Tundac imitom,<br />
rom memkvidreebi ar<br />
aumxedrnen. Tanamedrove<br />
istoria savsea aseTi magaliTebiT<br />
_ gvirgvindakargul<br />
diqtatorebs SeeZloT,<br />
bunebrivi sikvdiliT<br />
wasuliyvnen am qveynidan an<br />
mSvidobianad gadamdgariyvnen. zogierTma<br />
es moaxerxa.<br />
werilis avtori putins sTavazobs<br />
SesaZlo variantebis sias,<br />
romelTa gamoyenebac mas SeuZlia.<br />
varianti 1. qveyanaSi demokratia<br />
daamkvidroT. ganis prezidentma<br />
rolingsma mkveTrad Secvala qveynis<br />
ganviTareba, igi orjer airCies<br />
am Tanamdebobaze da pensiaze 2001<br />
wels gavida.<br />
varianti 2. uzrunvelyaviT `gza<br />
gasasvlelisken~. daniel ortega,<br />
wasvlamde cota xniT adre, yvela<br />
partias SeuTanxmda, rom Tavs Seikavebdnen<br />
SurisZiebisgan. es 1990<br />
wels iyo. 2006 da 2011 wlebSi igi<br />
kvlav dabrunda nikaraguis<br />
prezidentad.<br />
varianti 3. ideqiT mtkiced.<br />
prezidenti mugabe, rogorc<br />
Cans, sicocxlis bolomde<br />
apirebs zimbabves<br />
marTvas; savaraudod, mas<br />
`Tanamdebobidan gasvlis~<br />
strategia ar gaaCnia. misi<br />
saidumlo aseTia: almasebis<br />
mopovebiT miRebuli mogeba<br />
mas exmareba, SeinarCunos<br />
masTan daaxloebulTa<br />
da uSiSroebis ZalTa loialuroba.<br />
varianti 4. SeqmeniT dinastia<br />
an erTpartiuli saxelmwifo.<br />
fidel kastrom<br />
diqtatoruli uflebamosilebani<br />
RviZl Zmas gadasca. erTpartiulma<br />
sistemam ramdenime aTeuli<br />
weli iarseba sabWoTa kavSir-<br />
Sic.<br />
putinis Zlieri Tvisebebis gaTvaliswinebiT,<br />
xelisuflebidan misi<br />
wasvlis dRe Zalzed Sors aris.<br />
niu-iorkis universitetis profesor<br />
brius meskitis azriT, putins<br />
Zalauflebis Sesustebis gansakuTrebuli<br />
stimuli ar gaaCnia, anu gamoiyenos<br />
pirveli varianti, radganac<br />
navTobis mopovebis Semosavali<br />
metismetad didia saimisod, rom saaxloblos<br />
viwro wris mxardaWera<br />
moipovos, anu gamoiyenos mesame varianti.<br />
Teoriuli wiaRsvlebis nacvlad,<br />
gaTamaSdeba Zveli varianti _<br />
adre Tu gvian, putini ruseTisTvis<br />
Cveul meTods gamoiyenebs _ Sear-<br />
Cevs misTvis loialur or adamians,<br />
romlebic mzad iqnebian, putins<br />
aaridon devna-Seviwroeba da gaTamaSebul<br />
arCevnebze erT-erTi gaimarjvebs.<br />
Tumca... gavixsenoT Ciles diqtator<br />
augusto pinoCetis badi _<br />
man sicocxlis bolo wlebi sasamarTloSi<br />
gaatara... ase rom, `xelisuflebis<br />
datovebis~ kargad mofiqrebuli<br />
gegmac ifuSeba xolme.<br />
`bevrs vkiTxulob, gansakuTrebiT<br />
istoriul wignebs, _ ganacxada<br />
pinoCetma dapatimrebamde cota<br />
xniT adre, _ istoria gvaswavlis,<br />
rom diqtatorebis bolo yovelTvis<br />
savalaloa~.<br />
The Wall Street Journal<br />
internetmimoxilva<br />
moamzada g. WavWavaZem
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