Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge
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<strong>Tavi</strong> <strong>3.</strong> <strong>Kklimatis</strong> <strong>cvlileba</strong><br />
(reziume – dakabadondeba <strong>Tavi</strong>s satitulo gverdze)<br />
globaluri klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong> mniSvnelovan problemad dgas<br />
Tanamedrove msoflioSi. industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad atmosferoSi e.w.<br />
`saTburis gazebis~ gafrqveva da amiT gamowveuli `globaluri daTboba~<br />
ganapirobebs klimatis globaluri cvlilebis amJamad mimdinare process, rac<br />
sxvadasxva lokaluri gamovlinebiT aisaxeba mTel msoflioSi.<br />
saqarTveloSi ukve Cans globaluri klimatis cvlilebis mavne Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi:<br />
gaxSirda bunebis eqstremaluri movlenebi, Seicvala klimaturi maxasiaTeblebi,<br />
rac aisaxeba bunebrivi resursebis xarisxze da, saboloo jamSi, ekonomikazec.<br />
saqarTvelo, rogorc gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis (gkcCk)<br />
mxare da misi kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana, valdebulia gaataros<br />
konvenciis principebi, anu SeZlebisdagvarad gaataros RonisZiebebi saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiis Semcirebisa da klimatis cvlilebisadmi adaptaciis mizniT.<br />
1. Sesavali: klimatis cvlilebis mizezebi da Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi (H1)<br />
klimatis cvlilebis amJamindeli fenomeni mkveTrad gamovlinda da<br />
mecnierebis, politikosebis da farTo sazogadiebis yuradReba miipyro me-20<br />
saukunis 70-iani wlebidan, roca SeamCnies msoflio saSualo wliuri<br />
temperaturis mkveTri awevis tendencia da gaxSirebuli klimaturi<br />
katastrofebi. dReisTvis ukve mecnieruladaa dadasturebuli, rom klimatis<br />
<strong>cvlileba</strong> namdvilad xdeba planetis masStabiT da gamoixateba saSualo<br />
temperaturis awevasa da amasTan dakavSirebiT naleqebis matebaSi, rac<br />
ukiduresad uaryofiTi formiT aisaxeba eqstremaluri movlenebis gaxSirebaSi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis mavne Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi mravalgvaria: myinvarebis dnoba mTebze<br />
da yinulis fenebis ganleva okeaneebSi, e.w. `sicxis talRebi~, gvalva, erTi<br />
mxriv, da Zlieri wvimebi, meore mxriv; aseve _ okeanis donis aweva, Stormebis,<br />
wyaldidobebis, Rvarcofebis, mewyerebis, zvavebis, cunamis, sxvadasxva<br />
qariSxlis gaZliereba da gaxSireba. klimatis Secvlis Sedegad icvleba buneba,<br />
ekosistemebi, romelTagan mravali verc axerxebs adaptacias da gadagvardeba;<br />
izrdeba adamianTa daavadebis, maT Soris, epidemiebis gavrcelebis riskic.<br />
`saTburis efeqtiT~ gamowveuli mavne Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi wlidan wlamde sul ufro met<br />
mravalferovnebasa da intensivobas avlens, rac amZafrebs problemas da<br />
aucilebels xdis mis saswrafod mogvarebas.<br />
mecnieruli prognozis Tanaxmad, 21-e saukunis bolosaTvis globaluri<br />
saSualo temperatura, msoflios ganviTarebis sxvadasxva scenaris mixedviT<br />
[2,4], moimatebs 1,4-dan 5,8 0 C-mde, xolo zRvis done, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, aiwevs<br />
9-dan 88 sm-mde, rac gaamZafrebs bunebriv kataklizmebs mTel msoflioSi.<br />
Seicvleba da gadagvardeba ekosistemebi, zogierTi maTgani saerTod gaqreba;<br />
Seicvleba cxovelTa, mcenareTa saxeobebis gavrcelebis are, zogi maTgani<br />
saerTod gaqreba; gaCndeba axali saxeobebi, wyliT daifareba zogierTi<br />
kunZuli, gaZneldeba sakvebis mopoveba, radgan zogan Semcirdeba wylis<br />
resursebi, rac gazrdis ariduli miwebis farTobs, zogan ki piriqiT _ xSiri<br />
wyaldidobebi da wyalmovardnebi Seamcirebs niadagis sasoflo-sameurneo<br />
vargisianobas. mravali iseTi saSiSroeba iCens Tavs, risi winaswarmetyvelebac<br />
dReisaTvis SeuZlebelia.<br />
aseTi momavlis <strong>Tavi</strong>dan asacileblad aucilebelia daTbobis procesis<br />
SeCereba, rac moiTxovs adekvatur Zalisxmevas globalur doneze: adamianis<br />
cxovrebisa da saqmianobis wesis mniSvnelovan gardaqmnas, qveynebis ekonomikuri
politikis ekologiurad „damzogav“ teqnologiebze orientacias.<br />
iTvleba, rom kacobriobis istoriaSi dafiqsirebuli globaluri klimatis<br />
cvlilebis yvela periodisagan gansxvavebiT, Tanamedrove klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong><br />
gamowveulia adamianis sawarmoo saqmianobiT da dakavSirebulia intensiur<br />
industrializaciasTan [2]. kerZod, industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad<br />
atmosferoSi gamoyofili airebi cvlis atmosferos Semad<strong>ge</strong>nlobas da xels<br />
uSlis dedamiwis zedapiridan siTbos kargvas. am airebs „saTburis gazebi“<br />
ewodebaT. isini moicaven naxSirorJangs, meTans, azotis qveJangs da ramdenime<br />
sxva, arapirdapiri moqmedebis gazs.<br />
გაზი სიცოცხლის–<br />
უნარიანობა<br />
(წლები)<br />
გლობალური დათბობის<br />
პოტენციალი (დროითი<br />
ინტერვალი 100 წელი)<br />
CO2<br />
ცვლადი<br />
1<br />
(50-200)<br />
CH4 12±3 21<br />
N2O 120 310<br />
HFCs<br />
HFC-23 264 11700<br />
HFC-32 5,6 650<br />
HFC-125 32,6 2800<br />
HFC-134 10,6 1300<br />
HFC-143 48,3 3800<br />
HFC-152 1,5 140<br />
HFC-227 36,5 2900<br />
HFC-236 209 6300<br />
HFC-245 6,6 560<br />
PFCs<br />
CF4 50000 6500<br />
C2F6 10000 9200<br />
C3F8 2600 7000<br />
C4F10 2600 7000<br />
saTburis gazi eqvsia, esenia: naxSirorJangi<br />
(CO 2 ), meTani (CH 4 ), azotis qveJangi (N 2 O),<br />
hidroftornaxSirbadebi (HFCs), perftornax-<br />
Sirbadebi (PFCs) da ftorosulfatebi (SF 6 ). es<br />
gazebi STanTqaven dedamiwidan atmosferoSi<br />
areklil infrawiTel gamosxivebas da abruneben<br />
mas dedamiwaze, rac iwvevs e.w. „saTburis<br />
efeqts“ da temperaturis matebas dedamiwaze.<br />
saTburis gazebis mTliani raodenobis 63%-ს<br />
naxSirorJangi Sead<strong>ge</strong>ns, Semdeg modis meTani<br />
(24%), azotis qveJangi (10%) da sxva gazebi (3 %),<br />
Tumca am gazebis mier „saTburis efeqtSi“<br />
Setanili wili damokidebulia ara marto maT<br />
raodenobaze, aramed aseve maT siTbur<br />
potencialzec.<br />
koeficients, romelic gamoxatavs ama Tu im<br />
gazis siTburi efeqtis siZlieres<br />
naxSirorJangTan SefardebiT, globaluri<br />
daTbobis potenciali (GWP) ewodeba.<br />
am koeficientis gaTvaliswinebiT saTburis<br />
gazebis saerTo emisia gadaiyvaneba da izomeba<br />
naxSirorJangis ekvivalentebSi.<br />
C6F14 3200 7400<br />
Kcxrili <strong>3.</strong>1: saTburis gazebis daxasiaTeba mdgradobisa da globaluri daTbobis<br />
potencialis mixedviT.<br />
gansakuTrebiT didia wiaRiseuli sawvavis (naxSiri, navTobi, gazi)<br />
moxmarebis roli saTburis gazebis gafrqvevaSi. maTi moxmareba mkveTrad<br />
gaizarda sayovelTao industrializaciisa da transportis swrafi ganviTarebis<br />
kvaldakval, me-20 saukunis bolo aTwleulebSi, da dRemde grZeldeba.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>1. naxSirbadis emisiis dinamika moxmarebuli wiaRiseuli sawvavidan. wyaro:<br />
naxSirorJangis informaciis analizis centri (CDIAC),<br />
http://cdiac.esd.oml.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm<br />
SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi gadaangariSebulia gafrqveuli naxSirbadis tonebSi.<br />
naxSirorJangis emisiebis SefasebisaTvis es mniSvnelobebi unda gamravldes 44/12-ze.<br />
me-20 saukunis 90-ian wlebamde saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis meti wili<br />
modioda ganviTarebul industriul qveynebze, romelTac ekisrebaT istoriuli<br />
pasuxism<strong>ge</strong>bloba klimatis mimdinare cvlilebebsa da mis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bze. magram imis<br />
gamo, rom ganviTarebadi qveynebis upirvelesi mizani maTi erovnuli ekonimikis<br />
swrafi ganviTarebaa (CineTi, brazilia, indoeTi, samxreT afrika da sxv.)<br />
maTTvis xelmisawvdomi gziT ise, rom garemosdacviTi sakiTxebi naklebad<br />
miiReba am procesSi mxedvelobaSi da imis gamo, rom maT xeli ar miuwvdebaT<br />
Tanamedrove energodamzog, ganaxlebad da sxva tipis sufTa, magram<br />
ZviradRirebul teqnologiebze, dRiTidRe icvleba ganviTarebadi da<br />
ganviTarebuli qveynebis proporcia saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi da<br />
sul ufro da ufro izrdeba ganviTarebadi qveynebis wili, rac amJamad<br />
raodenobiT aWarbebs kidec ganviTarebuli qveynebisas.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>2. ganviTarebuli da ganviTarebadi qveynebis wilis prognostirebuli<br />
dinamika naxSirorJangis emisiaSi, wyaro: aSS ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis departamenti, 2007.<br />
SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi naCvenebia naxSirorJangis tonebSi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis fenomenis globaluri xasiaTidan gamomdinare<br />
aucilebeli gaxda misi SeCerebisaTvis kacobriobis Zalisxmevis gaerTianeba.<br />
1988 wels msoflios wamyvani mecnierebisagan Seiqmna gaeros klimatis<br />
cvlilebis mTavrobaTaSorisi sabWo (Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Chan<strong>ge</strong> -<br />
IPCC), romlis mizania Seafasos adamianis saqmianobiT gamowveuli klimatis<br />
cvlilebis riski, misi potenciuri Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi, am Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Serbilebisa da<br />
klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan adaptaciis gzebi. sabWom Seiswavla problema da<br />
ganacxada globaluri temperaturis matebis Sesaxeb saTburis gazebis<br />
atmosferoSi gafrqvevis gamo. Semdegadß daiwyo saerTaSoriso RonisZiebebis<br />
gatareba am gafrqvevebis SemcirebisTvis. 1992 wels rio-de-JaneiroSi xeli<br />
moewera gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencias (UNFCCC), romelSic<br />
aisaxa globaluri klimatis cvlilebis problema da masTan brZolis<br />
principebi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencia, romelsac amJamad ukve 192 qveyana, maT<br />
Soris saqarTveloc, miuerTda, ayalibebs saerTaSoriso qmedebebis mTavar<br />
principebs, rom qveynebi win unda aRudgnen klimatis cvlilebis problemas<br />
maTi valdebulebebis da SesaZleblobebis Sesabamisad da ganviTarebulma<br />
qveynebma unda ikisron mTavari roli am problemis gadawyvetaSi. konvencia<br />
ayalibebs klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan dakavSirebuli problemis gadawyvetis<br />
principebs ori ZiriTadi mimarTulebiT: saTburis gazebis Semcireba, rogorc<br />
problemis gamomwvevi mizezis aRmofxvra-Serbileba, da klimatis<br />
cvlilebisadmi da misi Sede<strong>ge</strong>bisadmi adaptacia. Aam orive mimarTulebiT<br />
konvencia Qxelmomwer mxare-qveynebs (danarT I-Si Sesuls _ ZiriTadad<br />
ganviTarebuls da danarT I-Si arSesuls _ ZiriTadad ganviTarebads, arsebobs<br />
kidev gardamavali ekonomikis mqone qveynebi, romelTa nawili Sedis danarT I-Si<br />
da nawili _ ara. saqarTvelo danarT I-Si arSesuli qveyanaa) gansxvaveul<br />
valdebulebebs usaxavs, maTi ganviTarebis donis Sesabamisad. es gansxvaveba<br />
aisaxeba konvenciis kiotos protokolSic, romelic aregulirebs saTburis<br />
gazebis emisiis SemcirebasTan dakavSirebul ekonomikur aspeqtebs. kerZod, am<br />
protokoliT gansazRvrulia saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis raodenobrivi
valdebulebebi ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis da aseve gansazRvrulia<br />
meqanizmebi (e.w. „kiotos protokolis moqnili meqanizmebi“) am valdebulebebis<br />
Sesrulebis gasaadvileblad.<br />
kiotos moqnili meqanizmebidan saqarTvelos, rogorc danarT I-Si<br />
arSemaval qveyanas, misi statusidan gamomdinare, ufleba aqvs monawileoba<br />
miiRos mxolod sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmSi (sgm). es meqanizmi uflebas<br />
aZlevs ganviTarebul qveynebs <strong>Tavi</strong>anTi valdebulebebis nawili ganviTarebadi<br />
qveyanis teritoriaze Seasrulon ufro sufTa, naklebi saTburis gazebis<br />
gamfrqvevi teqnologiebis danergvis gziT. Aam meqanizmis farglebSi<br />
saqarTveloSi mimdinareobs seriozuli muSaoba saTburis gazebis emisiis<br />
Semcirebis SesaZlo sferoebis gamovlenis, proeqtebis momzadebisa da<br />
ganxorcielebis TvalsazrisiT. saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis<br />
perspeqtiuli sferoebia ener<strong>ge</strong>tika, transporti, samrewvelo procesebi (azotis<br />
warmoeba, cementis warmoeba, metalurgiuli warmoebebi), soflis meurneoba,<br />
narCenebis gadamuSaveba.<br />
2. klimatis cvlilebis<br />
gamovlineba saqarTveloSi<br />
(H1)<br />
axlaxan Catarebulma<br />
kvlevebma (`saqarTvelos II<br />
erovnuli angariSi gaeros<br />
klimatis cvlilebis<br />
CarCo-konvenciisadmi~, 2009)<br />
gamoavlina ZiriTadi<br />
klimaturi parametrebis<br />
(haeris saSualo da<br />
eqstremaluri temperatura,<br />
saSualo wliuri naleqebi,<br />
fardobiTi tenianoba,<br />
naleqebis mosvlis reJimi,<br />
qari)<br />
<strong>cvlileba</strong><br />
saqarTvelos<br />
mTel<br />
teritoriaze. kerZod,<br />
meteorologiuri<br />
sadgurebis statistikurma<br />
monacemebma aCvena haeris<br />
saSualo da eqstremaluri<br />
temperaturis zrda da<br />
saqarTvelos hidrometeorologiur dakvirvebaTa qseli<br />
saqarTveloSi sistematuri meteorologiuri dakvirvebebi daiwyo 1844<br />
wlidan, xolo hidrologiuri _ 1905 wlidan.<br />
me-20 s-is 80-iani wlebisaTvis dakvirvebebis qselma moicva mTeli<br />
saqarTvelos teritoria, maT Soris _ maRalmTiani da Znelad<br />
misadgomi regionebi.klimatur procesebze dakvirvebisaTvis gamoiyeneba<br />
specialuri teqnikuri saSualebebiT aRWurvili hidrometeorologiuri<br />
sadgurebi, romlebic awarmoeben dakvirvebebs da iReben<br />
informacias klimaturi parametrebis (temperatura, naleqebi, tenianoba<br />
da sxv.) Sesaxeb qveynis sxvadasxva nawilSi. aRebuli informacia<br />
ikribeba, sistematizirdeba da muSavdeba hidrometeorologiur<br />
centrSi. arsebuli mravalwliani monacemebis analizis safuZvelze<br />
SesaZloa gakeTdes prognozebi momavali monacemebis Sesaxeb.<br />
bolo ocwleulSi saqarTveloSi hidrometeorologiuri sadgurebis<br />
ricxvi mkveTrad Semcirda da amJamad dakvirvebebi warmoebs mxolod<br />
40-mde sadgursa da saguSagoze. Tbilisis sadguri CarTulia klimatur<br />
dakvirvebaTa globalur qselSi. Sesabamisad dakvirvebis punqtebisa da<br />
gazomili parametrebis raodenobis Semcirebam gavlena iqonia<br />
saboloo daskvnebis sizustec. hidrometeorologiur qselsa da<br />
dakvirvebebze amJamad pasuxism<strong>ge</strong>belia garemos dacvis erovnuli<br />
saa<strong>ge</strong>nto, romelic struqturulad Sedis saqarTvelos garemos<br />
dacvisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministroSi da mis saqveuwyebo<br />
dawesebulebas warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns. am da sxva statistikuri informaciis<br />
safuZvelze tardeba kvlevebi klimatis amJamindeli da momavali<br />
mdgomareobis Sesaxeb.<br />
naleqebis saSualo wliuri jamisa da reJimis <strong>cvlileba</strong> rogorc dasavleT,<br />
ise aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong><strong>3.</strong> haeris temperaturis saSualo mniSvnelobebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> saqarTveloSi<br />
(Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 ww-is 60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>4. naleqTa saSualo wliuri jamebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> (Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 wwis<br />
60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).<br />
amave klimaturi parametrebis prognozi gviCvenebs, rom momavalSi es<br />
cvlilebebi kidev ufro dramatul xasiaTs miiRebs. modelirebis gamoyenebiT<br />
miRebuli temperaturisa da naleqTa jamebis prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis<br />
dasavleT da aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi mocemulia 5-8 diagramebze.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>5. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>6. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>7. naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>8. naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi<br />
2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis<br />
mixedviT.<br />
ukanaskneli 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi, rogorc statistika mowmobs,<br />
saqarTveloSi mkveTrad gaxSirda bunebrivi kataklizmebi, romlebic<br />
damaxasiaTebelia klimatis cvlilebisaTvis. Cveulebriv movlenad iqca Zlieri<br />
wvimebi, <strong>Tavi</strong>si dramatuli Sede<strong>ge</strong>biT; gaxSirda mewyerebi, wyalmovardnebi,<br />
zvavebi, mdinareebis kalapotidan gadmosvla, qarborbalebi. gamovlinda
sezonurobis <strong>cvlileba</strong>. ramdenime adgilas gamoikveTa gaudabnoebis procesi.<br />
jerjerobiT Seswavlili ar aris am movlenebis gamomwvevi konkretuli,<br />
qveynisaTvis specifikuri mizezebi. saqarTveloSi klimatis aseT <strong>cvlileba</strong>s,<br />
savaraudod, ganapirobebs ekosistemebis mravalferovneba da qveynis reliefi –<br />
maRali mTebi da wylis uxvi resursebi, aseve zRvis siaxlove.<br />
aRniSnuli klimaturi cvlilebebisa da stiqiuri movlenebis mavne<br />
Sede<strong>ge</strong>bs amZafrebs ener<strong>ge</strong>tikuli krizisis periodSi (1990-iani wlebi) gakafuli<br />
tyeebi da qarsacavebi, wylis resursebis marTvis (napirsamagri, sadrenaJo,<br />
sairigacio) sistemebis gaumarTaoba, rac aisaxeba niadagis eroziaze. es ki<br />
amcirebs sasoflo-sameurneo savargulebis farTobebsa da maT nayofierebas.<br />
gauTvaliswinebeli stiqiuri movlenebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis likvidaciisaTvis<br />
aucilebeli xdeba sul ufro meti fuladi saxsrebis daxarjva, rac mZime<br />
tvirTad awveba qveynis ekonomikas.<br />
dakvirvebebma da kvlevebma gamoavlina klimatis cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bisadmi<br />
gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi saqarTveloSi.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>9. saSualo temperaturebis <strong>cvlileba</strong> prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-<br />
Si (Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli<br />
maCveneblebi).
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>10. naleqebis wliuri jamis <strong>cvlileba</strong> prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-<br />
Si (Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli<br />
maCveneblebi).<br />
Savi zRvis sanapiro zoli (H2)<br />
zRvis sanapiro zoli yvelgan, mTel msoflioSi, amJRavnebs<br />
gansakuTrebul mgrZnobiarobas klimatis cvlilebis mavne zegavlenis mimarT<br />
da am mxriv gamonakliss arc saqarTvelos SavizRvispireTi warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns, sadac<br />
sanapiro zolis mTel sigrZeze SeiniSneba zRvis donis aweva xmeleTTan<br />
SedarebiT, Stormebis gaxSireba da gaZliereba, zRvaSi mdinareebis Camonatanis<br />
gazrda da zRvis zedapiruli wylebis temperaturis <strong>cvlileba</strong>. klimatis<br />
<strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan dakavSirebuli es Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi gansakuTrebiT mwvave viTarebas qmnis<br />
md. rionis deltaSi, q. foTTan, sadac aris ormagi problema (Seqmnili mdinaris<br />
ori totiT): erTi mxriv, zRvis SemoWra da xmeleTis mitaceba da, meore mxriv,<br />
mdinaris SeWra zRvaSi da iq naSalis Catana. uaxlesi kvlevebi (klimatis<br />
cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciisadmi ward<strong>ge</strong>nili saqarTvelos II erovnuli<br />
Setyobineba, 2009) aCvenebs, rom Savi zRvis sanapiro zona warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns<br />
saqarTveloSi amJamad yvelaze mowyvlad ekosistemas klimatis cvlilebisadmi<br />
da modelirebuli prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis kidev ufro savalalo suraTs<br />
gvixatavs.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>11. sxvadasxva siZlieris Stormebis jamuri raodenobis da wilis dinamika<br />
saqarTvelos SavizRvispireTSi.
qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni) (H2)<br />
aq gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia naleqebis raodenobis momateba. Secvlilia<br />
TviT naleqebis mosvlis reJimi _ ufro xSiri da uxvia, magram ufro<br />
moklexniani. amis Sedegia gaxSirebuli da gaZlierebuli wyaldidobebi, zvavebi,<br />
mewyerebi da Rvarcofebi. niadagis gaZlierebuli erozia, rasac xels uwyobs<br />
gaCexili tyeebic, did zarals ayenebs raionis ekonomikas da iwvevs migraciis<br />
tendencias.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>12. wyaldidobebis maxasiaTeblebi md. cxeniswylis auzSi.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>1<strong>3.</strong> mewyerebis dinamika lentexis raionis dazianebul adgilebSi, 1980-1998.<br />
dedofliswyaros raioni (H2)<br />
klimatis cvlilebis mavne gavlena gamoixateba gvalvis gaxSirebaSi, wylis<br />
resursebis daklebasa da miwis degradaciaSi. moSlili qarsacavi zoli da<br />
irigaciis sistema (me-20 saukunis bolos, politikur-ekonomikuri krizisis<br />
dros) damatebiT problemebs uqmnis soflis meurneobisaTvis am Zalian<br />
mniSvnelovani regionis ekonomikur sar<strong>ge</strong>blianobas.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>14. gvalvis dinamika dedofliswyaros raionSi.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>15. wylis danaklisi soflis meurneobaSi<br />
SeniSvna: wylis danaklisi Sefasebulia wylis resursebis marTvis WEAP modeliT.<br />
SavizRvispireTis, qvemo svaneTisa da dedofliswyaros regionebis<br />
aRniSnuli problemebis garda, saqarTveloSi, savaraudod, arsebobs kidev sxva<br />
regionebi da sferoebi, sadac jer kidev ar aris Seswavlili klimatis<br />
cvlilebis zegavlena. aq igulisxmeba mdinareebis adidebasTan dakavSirebuli<br />
gaxSirebuli wyaldidobebi, rac xdeba TiTqmis yvela raionSi, myinvarebis<br />
dnobasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi da a.S., rac uaxloes momavalSi<br />
aucileblad moiTxovs gamokvlevas.<br />
<strong>3.</strong> saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi<br />
90-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi saqarTveloში saTburis gazebis emisiebi<br />
DsaSualod 4-jer Semcirda. es gamowveuli iyo politikuri ZvrebiT da<br />
ekonomikis moSliT. gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani gavlena iqonia ener<strong>ge</strong>tikulma<br />
krizisma, ramac mkveTrad Seamcira wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmareba da<br />
imavdroulad daeca mrewvelobac (da saerTod ekonomika). A<br />
miuxedavad qveynis mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) maCvenebilis zrdisa (9-<br />
11%) 2003-2007 wlebSi, qveynis saerTo emisia 2006 wlisaTvis jer isev 1990 wlis<br />
donis meoTxedi iyo.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>16. saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis emisiebis trendi 1990-2006 ww.
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>17.saTburis gazebis emisiebi 1990-2006 ww. seqtorebis mixedviT.<br />
SeniSvna: am da momdevno diagramebze warmod<strong>ge</strong>nili seqtorebis klasifikacia miyveba IPCC-s klasifikacias<br />
(saTburis gazebis emisiebis inventarizaciis saxelmZRvanelo dokumenti), romlis mixedviTac, ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis<br />
seqtori moicavs wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmarebis mTel sferos, transportis CaTvliT, xolo narCenebis<br />
seqtori – nagavsayrelebsa da Camdinare wylebs, romelTaganac warmoiSoba saTburis gazebi.<br />
specifikuria tyeebis wili saTburi airebis emisiaSi: xeebis asakidan da<br />
saxeobidan gamomdinare tye jamurad SeiZleba iyos saTburis gazebis an<br />
gamfrqvevi, an STamnTqmeli. 2000 wlidan saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis<br />
gafrqvevasa da Sefaseba-aRricxvaSi gaTvaliswinebulia tyis es specifika.<br />
miuxedavad wliuri variaciebisa tyeebi saqarTveloSi STanTqmis wyaroa. 2000-<br />
2006 wlebis inventarizaciis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bi tyeebis gaTvaliswinebiT warmod<strong>ge</strong>nilia<br />
me-18 diagramaze.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>18. saTburis gazebis emisiebi 2000-2006 wlebSi seqtorebis mixedviT (tyeebis CaTvliT).<br />
diagramebidan Cans, rom ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtori saqarTveloSi, sxva qveynebis<br />
msgavsad, wamyvania saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis TvalsazrisiT. miuxedavad<br />
mniSvnelovani dasustebisa 1990-iani wlebis politikuri kataklizmebis Semdeg,<br />
ener<strong>ge</strong>tika amJamad saqarTveloSi aRmavlobis gzazea. Sesabamisad, saTburis
gazebis emisiebic zrdis tendencias amJRavnebs. ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtoridan<br />
gansakuTrebiT didi gafrqvevebi transportis qveseqtoridanaa.<br />
diagrama <strong>3.</strong>19. saTburis gazebis emisiebis dinamika transportis seqtoridan.<br />
amJamad saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi Zalian<br />
mcirea da 0.01 %-ze naklebs Sead<strong>ge</strong>ns. saqarTvelos meore erovnul Setyobinebis<br />
farglebSi gakeTebulma Sefasebebma aCvena, rom 2025 wlisaTvis ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis<br />
seqtoridan saTburis gazebis emisia 3-jer gaizrdeba 2006 wlis donesTan<br />
SedarebiT, Tumca is jer kidev 2-jer naklebi iqneba 1990 wlis doneze. amave<br />
dokumentis farglebSi Sefasda saTburis gazebis emisiebis Semamcirebeli<br />
RonisZiebebis gatarebis ori sxvadasxva scenari: erTi, rodesac es Semcireba<br />
<strong>Tavi</strong>siT xdeba, sazogadoebis mier sxvadasxva individualuri Tu jgufuri<br />
proeqtis ganxorcielebis safuZvelze da romlis Sedegadac 2025 wlisaTvis<br />
12%-iT naklebi iqneba gafrqvevebi ener<strong>ge</strong>tikis seqtoridan tradiciuli biznesis<br />
(e.i. roca araferi keTdeba) scenarTan SedarebiT da meore, `erTiani samTavrobo<br />
politikis scenari~, romlis SemTxvevaSic xorcieldeba sxvadasxva samTavrobo<br />
programa emisiebis Sesamcireblad da am SemTxvevaSi danazogi 2025 wlisaTvis<br />
aranakleb 24% iqneba. yvelaze mniSvnelovani resursebi saTburis gazebis<br />
emisiebis Sesamcireblad aris, erTi mxriv, wiaRiseuli sawvavis Canacvleba<br />
ganaxlebadi energoresursebiT eleqtro da Tburi energiebis <strong>ge</strong>neraciis da<br />
Tburi energiis moxmarebis qveseqtorebSi da meore mxriv, energoefeqtianobis<br />
gazrda saerTod mTel ener<strong>ge</strong>tikaSi (mopovebidan-moxmarebis CaTvliT);<br />
transportis seqtorSi, erTi mxriv, sawvavis Canacvleba (benzinisa da dizelis<br />
sawvavis Secvla gaziT, romelsac globaluri daTbobis naklebi potenciali<br />
aqvs) da, meore mxriv, moZraobis sqemebis optimizacia; axali teqnologiebis<br />
Semotana warmoebaSi; energodamzogavi mSenebloba, sxvadasxva warmoebis narCeni<br />
energiebis (siTbos) gamoyeneba da sxv. saqarTvelosTvis gansakuTrebul<br />
SesaZleblobas saTburis gazebis emisiebis Sesamcireblad iZleva sufTa<br />
ganviTarebis meqanizmi, romelic kiotos protokoliT gansazRvruli,<br />
damatebiTi sufTa investiciebis Semomtani meqanizmia.<br />
klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sTan adaptacia (H2)<br />
garda saTburis gazebis emisiebis Semcirebisa, klimatis cvlilebis<br />
konvencia iTvaliswinebs klimatis cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bTan adaptaciis<br />
RonisZiebebis gatarebis aucileblobasac. rogorc saqarTveloSi, ise msoflios
mraval qveyanaSi mwvaved dgas klimatis mimdinare cvlilebiT gamowveuli<br />
zianis aRd<strong>ge</strong>nisa da misadmi medegobis aRd<strong>ge</strong>nis RonisZiebebis saswrafod<br />
gatarebis aucilebloba. rogorc wesi, aseTi RonisZiebebi moiTxovs<br />
mniSvnelovan xarjebs. gansakuTrebiT mowyvladi regionebis, seqtorebisa da<br />
ekosistemebis drouli gamovlena da Sesabamisi saadaptacio RonisZiebebis<br />
gansazRvra, maTTvis aucilebeli xarjebis gamoTvlasa da moZiebasTan erTad,<br />
warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns kidev erT, Zalian mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas klimatis cvlilebis<br />
sferoSi. gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis mimarT 2009 wels<br />
ward<strong>ge</strong>nil saqarTvelos II erovnul SetyobinebaSi Sefasda sami savaraudod<br />
yvelaze mowyvladi regioni (SavizRvispireTi, dedofliswyaro da qvemo svaneTi),<br />
romelTaTvisac momzadda saadaptacio strategiebi, sadac gaTvaliswinebulia<br />
is gadaudebeli RonisZiebebi, romelTa ganxorcieleba aucilebelia klimatis<br />
cvlilebiT gamowveuli riskebis Sesamcireblad am regionebSi. aRniSnul<br />
strategiebs Tan axlavs konkretuli saproeqto winadadebebi. sul SemuSavda 8<br />
saadaptacio winadadeba: sami winadadeba momzadebulia Savi zRvis sanapiro<br />
zonisaTvis da iTvaliswinebs rogorc napiraRd<strong>ge</strong>niT/napirdacviT samuSaoebs<br />
(baTumi-adlia, rionis delta), agreTve adreuli Setyobinebis sistemis mowyobas<br />
rionis deltaSi; dedofliswyaros regionisaTvis gamoikveTa qarsafarebis<br />
gadaudebeli reabilitacia, plantaciuri tyeebis gaSeneba da irigaciis<br />
sistemebis optimaluri reabilitacia; rac Seexeba qvemo svaneTs, aq ZiriTadi<br />
aqcenti mewyerebis gaaqtiurebis sawinaaRmdego RonisZiebebzea gakeTebuli,<br />
kerZod _ am regionSi Txilis kulturis moSenebaze. kidev erTi, saproeqto<br />
winadadeba ganixilvs saadaptacio RonisZiebebs myinvarebis (WaWi, devdoraki,<br />
abano da <strong>ge</strong>r<strong>ge</strong>ti) dnobis Sedegad adgilobrivi soflebisa da darialis<br />
xeobisaTvis (samxedro gza) SesaZlo zianis miyenebis Sesamcireblad. Ees<br />
saproeqto winadadebebi dagzavnilia sxvadasxa donorTan dafinansebis<br />
mopovebis mizniT. dedofliswyaros raionis saproeqto winadadebebis<br />
safuZvelze <strong>ge</strong>rmaniis teqnikuri TanamSromlobis organizaciam (GTZ) 2008 wels<br />
gamoyo Tanxebi saqarTveloSi klimatis cvlilebis gavleniT degradirebuli<br />
miwebis reabilitaciisaTvis, romelic xorcieldeba dedofliswyaros raionSi.<br />
momavlisaTvis aucilebelia erTiani erovnuli saadaptacio <strong>ge</strong>gmis momzadeba,<br />
romelic iqneba saerTo erovnuli ganviTarebis <strong>ge</strong>gmis nawili, daeyrdnoba<br />
arsebuli mdgomareobisa da resursebis Sefasebas da warmoad<strong>ge</strong>ns arCeuli<br />
prioritetebis mixedviT droSi gaweril RonisZiebebs Sesabamisi finansuri da<br />
teqnikuri uzrunvelyofis gaTvaliswinebiT.<br />
K<br />
4. ZiriTadi gamowvevebi<br />
saqarTveloSi klimatis globaluri cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Seswavlaanalizma<br />
gamoavlina klimaturi parametrebis (saSualo wliuri, maqsimaluri da<br />
minimaluri temperatura, naleqTa saSualo wliuri jami da naleqebis mosvlis<br />
reJimi) sagrZnobi cvlilebebi me-20 s-is dasawyisidan dRemde.Ees cvlilebebi<br />
aisaxeba sxvadasxva ekosistemis maxasiaTeblebze, maT xarisxobriv degradaciaze,<br />
ekonomikuri efeqtianobis Semcirebaze. saqarTveloSi iseve, rogorc mTel<br />
msoflioSi, aRiniSneba eqstremaluri klimaturi movlenebis gaxSireba<br />
(Stormebi, qariSxlebi, wyaldidobebi, zvavebi, mewyerebi, siTburi talRebi), rac<br />
didwilad ukavSirdeba klimatis cvlilebis process.<br />
klimatis globaluri cvlilebis lokaluri Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis Seswavlam<br />
saqarTveloSi gamoavlina gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi _ Savi zRvis<br />
sanapiro zoli, dedofliswyaros regioni da qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni),<br />
sadac saWiroa dauyovnebeli saadaptacio RonisZiebebi.<br />
klimatis cvlilebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bis simwvavidan gamomdinare, saqarTvelom<br />
klimatis cvlilebis politikis sferoSi qveynis prioritetul mimarTulebad
klimatis <strong>cvlileba</strong>sa da mis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bTan adaptacia aRiara, rac Sesabamisad<br />
aisaxa konvenciis samdivnoSi saqarTvelos mier ward<strong>ge</strong>nil sakuTar poziciaSi.<br />
mimdinareobs seriozuli muSaoba erovnuli saadaptacio samoqmedo <strong>ge</strong>gmis<br />
Sesaqmnelad, rac qveyanas daexmareba gasatarebeli RonisZiebebis organizebasa<br />
da saxsrebis mozidvaSi. aseTi <strong>ge</strong>gmis Seqmna Zalian Sromatevadi samuSaoa da<br />
moiTxovs mravalmxriv Zalisxmevas mecnieruli, ekonomikuri, finansuri da<br />
teqnikuri potencialis mobilizebisa da gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT.<br />
paralelurad mimdinareobs saerTaSoriso (maT Soris, gkcCk-is farglebSi<br />
arsebuli) finansuri meqanizmebis (pirvel rigSi, kiotos protokolTan<br />
arsebuli adaptaciis fondis) gamoyenebis SesaZleblobebis Seswavla.<br />
rac Seexeba klimatis cvlilebis Serbilebis mimarTulebas, miuxedavad<br />
saTburis gazebis mcire emisiisa, saqarTvelo, rogorc gaeros klimatis<br />
cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis mxare da misi kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana,<br />
apirebs gaataros RonisZiebebi am emisiebis Sesamcirebladac. es gadawyvetileba<br />
aisaxa saqarTvelos mier 2009 wlis dekemberSi kopenha<strong>ge</strong>nSi miRebul<br />
dokumentTan (e.w. `kopenha<strong>ge</strong>nis akordi~) mierTebis oficialur ganacxadSic.<br />
saTburis gazebis emisiis Sesamcireblad saqarTvelo prioritetulad miiCnevs<br />
sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmis sruli siZlieriT amoqmedebas uaxloes sam<br />
weliwadSi (2012 wlamde, roca iwureba kiotos protokoliT gaTvaliswinebuli<br />
pirveli savaldebulo periodi). amJamad saqarTveloSi registrirebulia sufTa<br />
ganviTarebis meqanizmis 2 proeqti (`nagavsayrelis gazis CaWera da<br />
eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba TbilisSi~ da `gaJonvebis Semcireba<br />
`yaztransgaz-Tbilisis~ gazis gamanawilebeli sistemis miwiszeda gazis<br />
gamanawilebeli mowyobilobebidan-Tbilisi, saqarTvelo~), ramdenime ki<br />
damuSavebis procesSia. kidev erTi ZiriTadi mimarTuleba am kuTxiT aris<br />
saTburis gazebis Semcirebis erovnuli <strong>ge</strong>gmis SemuSaveba, rac <strong>ge</strong>gmur CarCoebSi<br />
moaqcevs saTburis gazebis Semcirebis RoniZiebebs. am erovnuli <strong>ge</strong>gmis<br />
SemuSaveba sakmaod seriozul kvlevebs da, Sesabamisad, did Tanxebs moiTxovs,<br />
rac qveyanam unda miiRos saerTaSoriso donorebisagan. es ki mniSvnelovnadaa<br />
damokidebuli konvenciis farglebSi mimdinare molaparakebebis Sede<strong>ge</strong>bze.<br />
2010 wlis dekemberSi gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis<br />
mxareTa Sexvedram unda gadawyvitos saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis<br />
mimarTulebiT maTi raodenobrivi valdebulebebis da klimatis cvlilebis<br />
sferoSi gasatarebeli momavali msoflio politikis sakiTxebi. kiotos<br />
protokolis Semcvleli xelSekrulebis Sinaarsze didadaa damokidebuli<br />
wevri-qveynebis Semdgomi erovnuli politikis mimarTulebebic da es<br />
xelSekruleba mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs saqarTvelos 2012 wlis Semdgom<br />
politikas klimatis cvlilebis sferoSi.<br />
gamoyenebuli literatura:<br />
1. saqarTvelos meore erovnuli Setyobineba klimatis cvlilebis CarCokonvenciisaTvis,<br />
Tbilisi, 2009<br />
2. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report , 2007<br />
<strong>3.</strong> Nakicenovic, N.et. al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. IPCC, Cambrid<strong>ge</strong>, 2000<br />
4. saqarTvelos mTavrobis pozicia klimatis cvlilebis politikis Sesaxeb 2010-2012<br />
ww.<br />
5. Association of Georgia with the Copenha<strong>ge</strong>n Accord (oficialuri werili danarTiT emisiebis<br />
Semcirebis Sesaxeb)
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