Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge

momxmarebeli.ge

Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba - momxmarebeli.ge

Tavi 3. Kklimatis cvlileba

(reziume – dakabadondeba Tavis satitulo gverdze)

globaluri klimatis cvlileba mniSvnelovan problemad dgas

Tanamedrove msoflioSi. industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad atmosferoSi e.w.

`saTburis gazebis~ gafrqveva da amiT gamowveuli `globaluri daTboba~

ganapirobebs klimatis globaluri cvlilebis amJamad mimdinare process, rac

sxvadasxva lokaluri gamovlinebiT aisaxeba mTel msoflioSi.

saqarTveloSi ukve Cans globaluri klimatis cvlilebis mavne Sedegebi:

gaxSirda bunebis eqstremaluri movlenebi, Seicvala klimaturi maxasiaTeblebi,

rac aisaxeba bunebrivi resursebis xarisxze da, saboloo jamSi, ekonomikazec.

saqarTvelo, rogorc gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis (gkcCk)

mxare da misi kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana, valdebulia gaataros

konvenciis principebi, anu SeZlebisdagvarad gaataros RonisZiebebi saTburis

gazebis emisiis Semcirebisa da klimatis cvlilebisadmi adaptaciis mizniT.

1. Sesavali: klimatis cvlilebis mizezebi da Sedegebi (H1)

klimatis cvlilebis amJamindeli fenomeni mkveTrad gamovlinda da

mecnierebis, politikosebis da farTo sazogadiebis yuradReba miipyro me-20

saukunis 70-iani wlebidan, roca SeamCnies msoflio saSualo wliuri

temperaturis mkveTri awevis tendencia da gaxSirebuli klimaturi

katastrofebi. dReisTvis ukve mecnieruladaa dadasturebuli, rom klimatis

cvlileba namdvilad xdeba planetis masStabiT da gamoixateba saSualo

temperaturis awevasa da amasTan dakavSirebiT naleqebis matebaSi, rac

ukiduresad uaryofiTi formiT aisaxeba eqstremaluri movlenebis gaxSirebaSi.

klimatis cvlilebis mavne Sedegebi mravalgvaria: myinvarebis dnoba mTebze

da yinulis fenebis ganleva okeaneebSi, e.w. `sicxis talRebi~, gvalva, erTi

mxriv, da Zlieri wvimebi, meore mxriv; aseve _ okeanis donis aweva, Stormebis,

wyaldidobebis, Rvarcofebis, mewyerebis, zvavebis, cunamis, sxvadasxva

qariSxlis gaZliereba da gaxSireba. klimatis Secvlis Sedegad icvleba buneba,

ekosistemebi, romelTagan mravali verc axerxebs adaptacias da gadagvardeba;

izrdeba adamianTa daavadebis, maT Soris, epidemiebis gavrcelebis riskic.

`saTburis efeqtiT~ gamowveuli mavne Sedegebi wlidan wlamde sul ufro met

mravalferovnebasa da intensivobas avlens, rac amZafrebs problemas da

aucilebels xdis mis saswrafod mogvarebas.

mecnieruli prognozis Tanaxmad, 21-e saukunis bolosaTvis globaluri

saSualo temperatura, msoflios ganviTarebis sxvadasxva scenaris mixedviT

[2,4], moimatebs 1,4-dan 5,8 0 C-mde, xolo zRvis done, 1990 welTan SedarebiT, aiwevs

9-dan 88 sm-mde, rac gaamZafrebs bunebriv kataklizmebs mTel msoflioSi.

Seicvleba da gadagvardeba ekosistemebi, zogierTi maTgani saerTod gaqreba;

Seicvleba cxovelTa, mcenareTa saxeobebis gavrcelebis are, zogi maTgani

saerTod gaqreba; gaCndeba axali saxeobebi, wyliT daifareba zogierTi

kunZuli, gaZneldeba sakvebis mopoveba, radgan zogan Semcirdeba wylis

resursebi, rac gazrdis ariduli miwebis farTobs, zogan ki piriqiT _ xSiri

wyaldidobebi da wyalmovardnebi Seamcirebs niadagis sasoflo-sameurneo

vargisianobas. mravali iseTi saSiSroeba iCens Tavs, risi winaswarmetyvelebac

dReisaTvis SeuZlebelia.

aseTi momavlis Tavidan asacileblad aucilebelia daTbobis procesis

SeCereba, rac moiTxovs adekvatur Zalisxmevas globalur doneze: adamianis

cxovrebisa da saqmianobis wesis mniSvnelovan gardaqmnas, qveynebis ekonomikuri


politikis ekologiurad „damzogav“ teqnologiebze orientacias.

iTvleba, rom kacobriobis istoriaSi dafiqsirebuli globaluri klimatis

cvlilebis yvela periodisagan gansxvavebiT, Tanamedrove klimatis cvlileba

gamowveulia adamianis sawarmoo saqmianobiT da dakavSirebulia intensiur

industrializaciasTan [2]. kerZod, industriuli saqmianobis Sedegad

atmosferoSi gamoyofili airebi cvlis atmosferos Semadgenlobas da xels

uSlis dedamiwis zedapiridan siTbos kargvas. am airebs „saTburis gazebi“

ewodebaT. isini moicaven naxSirorJangs, meTans, azotis qveJangs da ramdenime

sxva, arapirdapiri moqmedebis gazs.

გაზი სიცოცხლის–

უნარიანობა

(წლები)

გლობალური დათბობის

პოტენციალი (დროითი

ინტერვალი 100 წელი)

CO2

ცვლადი

1

(50-200)

CH4 12±3 21

N2O 120 310

HFCs

HFC-23 264 11700

HFC-32 5,6 650

HFC-125 32,6 2800

HFC-134 10,6 1300

HFC-143 48,3 3800

HFC-152 1,5 140

HFC-227 36,5 2900

HFC-236 209 6300

HFC-245 6,6 560

PFCs

CF4 50000 6500

C2F6 10000 9200

C3F8 2600 7000

C4F10 2600 7000

saTburis gazi eqvsia, esenia: naxSirorJangi

(CO 2 ), meTani (CH 4 ), azotis qveJangi (N 2 O),

hidroftornaxSirbadebi (HFCs), perftornax-

Sirbadebi (PFCs) da ftorosulfatebi (SF 6 ). es

gazebi STanTqaven dedamiwidan atmosferoSi

areklil infrawiTel gamosxivebas da abruneben

mas dedamiwaze, rac iwvevs e.w. „saTburis

efeqts“ da temperaturis matebas dedamiwaze.

saTburis gazebis mTliani raodenobis 63%-ს

naxSirorJangi Seadgens, Semdeg modis meTani

(24%), azotis qveJangi (10%) da sxva gazebi (3 %),

Tumca am gazebis mier „saTburis efeqtSi“

Setanili wili damokidebulia ara marto maT

raodenobaze, aramed aseve maT siTbur

potencialzec.

koeficients, romelic gamoxatavs ama Tu im

gazis siTburi efeqtis siZlieres

naxSirorJangTan SefardebiT, globaluri

daTbobis potenciali (GWP) ewodeba.

am koeficientis gaTvaliswinebiT saTburis

gazebis saerTo emisia gadaiyvaneba da izomeba

naxSirorJangis ekvivalentebSi.

C6F14 3200 7400

Kcxrili 3.1: saTburis gazebis daxasiaTeba mdgradobisa da globaluri daTbobis

potencialis mixedviT.

gansakuTrebiT didia wiaRiseuli sawvavis (naxSiri, navTobi, gazi)

moxmarebis roli saTburis gazebis gafrqvevaSi. maTi moxmareba mkveTrad

gaizarda sayovelTao industrializaciisa da transportis swrafi ganviTarebis

kvaldakval, me-20 saukunis bolo aTwleulebSi, da dRemde grZeldeba.


diagrama 3.1. naxSirbadis emisiis dinamika moxmarebuli wiaRiseuli sawvavidan. wyaro:

naxSirorJangis informaciis analizis centri (CDIAC),

http://cdiac.esd.oml.gov/trends/emis/em_cont.htm

SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi gadaangariSebulia gafrqveuli naxSirbadis tonebSi.

naxSirorJangis emisiebis SefasebisaTvis es mniSvnelobebi unda gamravldes 44/12-ze.

me-20 saukunis 90-ian wlebamde saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis meti wili

modioda ganviTarebul industriul qveynebze, romelTac ekisrebaT istoriuli

pasuxismgebloba klimatis mimdinare cvlilebebsa da mis Sedegebze. magram imis

gamo, rom ganviTarebadi qveynebis upirvelesi mizani maTi erovnuli ekonimikis

swrafi ganviTarebaa (CineTi, brazilia, indoeTi, samxreT afrika da sxv.)

maTTvis xelmisawvdomi gziT ise, rom garemosdacviTi sakiTxebi naklebad

miiReba am procesSi mxedvelobaSi da imis gamo, rom maT xeli ar miuwvdebaT

Tanamedrove energodamzog, ganaxlebad da sxva tipis sufTa, magram

ZviradRirebul teqnologiebze, dRiTidRe icvleba ganviTarebadi da

ganviTarebuli qveynebis proporcia saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi da

sul ufro da ufro izrdeba ganviTarebadi qveynebis wili, rac amJamad

raodenobiT aWarbebs kidec ganviTarebuli qveynebisas.


diagrama 3.2. ganviTarebuli da ganviTarebadi qveynebis wilis prognostirebuli

dinamika naxSirorJangis emisiaSi, wyaro: aSS energetikis departamenti, 2007.

SeniSvna: gafrqvevebi naCvenebia naxSirorJangis tonebSi.

klimatis cvlilebis fenomenis globaluri xasiaTidan gamomdinare

aucilebeli gaxda misi SeCerebisaTvis kacobriobis Zalisxmevis gaerTianeba.

1988 wels msoflios wamyvani mecnierebisagan Seiqmna gaeros klimatis

cvlilebis mTavrobaTaSorisi sabWo (Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change -

IPCC), romlis mizania Seafasos adamianis saqmianobiT gamowveuli klimatis

cvlilebis riski, misi potenciuri Sedegebi, am Sedegebis Serbilebisa da

klimatis cvlilebasTan adaptaciis gzebi. sabWom Seiswavla problema da

ganacxada globaluri temperaturis matebis Sesaxeb saTburis gazebis

atmosferoSi gafrqvevis gamo. Semdegadß daiwyo saerTaSoriso RonisZiebebis

gatareba am gafrqvevebis SemcirebisTvis. 1992 wels rio-de-JaneiroSi xeli

moewera gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencias (UNFCCC), romelSic

aisaxa globaluri klimatis cvlilebis problema da masTan brZolis

principebi.

klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvencia, romelsac amJamad ukve 192 qveyana, maT

Soris saqarTveloc, miuerTda, ayalibebs saerTaSoriso qmedebebis mTavar

principebs, rom qveynebi win unda aRudgnen klimatis cvlilebis problemas

maTi valdebulebebis da SesaZleblobebis Sesabamisad da ganviTarebulma

qveynebma unda ikisron mTavari roli am problemis gadawyvetaSi. konvencia

ayalibebs klimatis cvlilebasTan dakavSirebuli problemis gadawyvetis

principebs ori ZiriTadi mimarTulebiT: saTburis gazebis Semcireba, rogorc

problemis gamomwvevi mizezis aRmofxvra-Serbileba, da klimatis

cvlilebisadmi da misi Sedegebisadmi adaptacia. Aam orive mimarTulebiT

konvencia Qxelmomwer mxare-qveynebs (danarT I-Si Sesuls _ ZiriTadad

ganviTarebuls da danarT I-Si arSesuls _ ZiriTadad ganviTarebads, arsebobs

kidev gardamavali ekonomikis mqone qveynebi, romelTa nawili Sedis danarT I-Si

da nawili _ ara. saqarTvelo danarT I-Si arSesuli qveyanaa) gansxvaveul

valdebulebebs usaxavs, maTi ganviTarebis donis Sesabamisad. es gansxvaveba

aisaxeba konvenciis kiotos protokolSic, romelic aregulirebs saTburis

gazebis emisiis SemcirebasTan dakavSirebul ekonomikur aspeqtebs. kerZod, am

protokoliT gansazRvrulia saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis raodenobrivi


valdebulebebi ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis da aseve gansazRvrulia

meqanizmebi (e.w. „kiotos protokolis moqnili meqanizmebi“) am valdebulebebis

Sesrulebis gasaadvileblad.

kiotos moqnili meqanizmebidan saqarTvelos, rogorc danarT I-Si

arSemaval qveyanas, misi statusidan gamomdinare, ufleba aqvs monawileoba

miiRos mxolod sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmSi (sgm). es meqanizmi uflebas

aZlevs ganviTarebul qveynebs TavianTi valdebulebebis nawili ganviTarebadi

qveyanis teritoriaze Seasrulon ufro sufTa, naklebi saTburis gazebis

gamfrqvevi teqnologiebis danergvis gziT. Aam meqanizmis farglebSi

saqarTveloSi mimdinareobs seriozuli muSaoba saTburis gazebis emisiis

Semcirebis SesaZlo sferoebis gamovlenis, proeqtebis momzadebisa da

ganxorcielebis TvalsazrisiT. saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis

perspeqtiuli sferoebia energetika, transporti, samrewvelo procesebi (azotis

warmoeba, cementis warmoeba, metalurgiuli warmoebebi), soflis meurneoba,

narCenebis gadamuSaveba.

2. klimatis cvlilebis

gamovlineba saqarTveloSi

(H1)

axlaxan Catarebulma

kvlevebma (`saqarTvelos II

erovnuli angariSi gaeros

klimatis cvlilebis

CarCo-konvenciisadmi~, 2009)

gamoavlina ZiriTadi

klimaturi parametrebis

(haeris saSualo da

eqstremaluri temperatura,

saSualo wliuri naleqebi,

fardobiTi tenianoba,

naleqebis mosvlis reJimi,

qari)

cvlileba

saqarTvelos

mTel

teritoriaze. kerZod,

meteorologiuri

sadgurebis statistikurma

monacemebma aCvena haeris

saSualo da eqstremaluri

temperaturis zrda da

saqarTvelos hidrometeorologiur dakvirvebaTa qseli

saqarTveloSi sistematuri meteorologiuri dakvirvebebi daiwyo 1844

wlidan, xolo hidrologiuri _ 1905 wlidan.

me-20 s-is 80-iani wlebisaTvis dakvirvebebis qselma moicva mTeli

saqarTvelos teritoria, maT Soris _ maRalmTiani da Znelad

misadgomi regionebi.klimatur procesebze dakvirvebisaTvis gamoiyeneba

specialuri teqnikuri saSualebebiT aRWurvili hidrometeorologiuri

sadgurebi, romlebic awarmoeben dakvirvebebs da iReben

informacias klimaturi parametrebis (temperatura, naleqebi, tenianoba

da sxv.) Sesaxeb qveynis sxvadasxva nawilSi. aRebuli informacia

ikribeba, sistematizirdeba da muSavdeba hidrometeorologiur

centrSi. arsebuli mravalwliani monacemebis analizis safuZvelze

SesaZloa gakeTdes prognozebi momavali monacemebis Sesaxeb.

bolo ocwleulSi saqarTveloSi hidrometeorologiuri sadgurebis

ricxvi mkveTrad Semcirda da amJamad dakvirvebebi warmoebs mxolod

40-mde sadgursa da saguSagoze. Tbilisis sadguri CarTulia klimatur

dakvirvebaTa globalur qselSi. Sesabamisad dakvirvebis punqtebisa da

gazomili parametrebis raodenobis Semcirebam gavlena iqonia

saboloo daskvnebis sizustec. hidrometeorologiur qselsa da

dakvirvebebze amJamad pasuxismgebelia garemos dacvis erovnuli

saagento, romelic struqturulad Sedis saqarTvelos garemos

dacvisa da bunebrivi resursebis saministroSi da mis saqveuwyebo

dawesebulebas warmoadgens. am da sxva statistikuri informaciis

safuZvelze tardeba kvlevebi klimatis amJamindeli da momavali

mdgomareobis Sesaxeb.

naleqebis saSualo wliuri jamisa da reJimis cvlileba rogorc dasavleT,

ise aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi.


diagrama 3.3. haeris temperaturis saSualo mniSvnelobebis cvlileba saqarTveloSi

(Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 ww-is 60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).

diagrama 3.4. naleqTa saSualo wliuri jamebis cvlileba (Sedarebulia 1900-1960 da 1957-2006 wwis

60-wliani saSualo monacemebi).

amave klimaturi parametrebis prognozi gviCvenebs, rom momavalSi es

cvlilebebi kidev ufro dramatul xasiaTs miiRebs. modelirebis gamoyenebiT

miRebuli temperaturisa da naleqTa jamebis prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis

dasavleT da aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi mocemulia 5-8 diagramebze.

diagrama 3.5. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi

2100 wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sedegebis

mixedviT.


diagrama 3.6. temperaturis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi

2100 wlisaTvis ( 0 C), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sedegebis

mixedviT.

diagrama 3.7. naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi dasavleT saqarTveloSi

2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sedegebis

mixedviT.

diagrama 3.8. naleqTa jamis prognostirebuli mniSvnelobebi aRmosavleT saqarTveloSi

2100 wlisaTvis (mm), gamoyenebuli modelebis gasaSualebiT miRebuli Sedegebis

mixedviT.

ukanaskneli 20 wlis ganmavlobaSi, rogorc statistika mowmobs,

saqarTveloSi mkveTrad gaxSirda bunebrivi kataklizmebi, romlebic

damaxasiaTebelia klimatis cvlilebisaTvis. Cveulebriv movlenad iqca Zlieri

wvimebi, Tavisi dramatuli SedegebiT; gaxSirda mewyerebi, wyalmovardnebi,

zvavebi, mdinareebis kalapotidan gadmosvla, qarborbalebi. gamovlinda


sezonurobis cvlileba. ramdenime adgilas gamoikveTa gaudabnoebis procesi.

jerjerobiT Seswavlili ar aris am movlenebis gamomwvevi konkretuli,

qveynisaTvis specifikuri mizezebi. saqarTveloSi klimatis aseT cvlilebas,

savaraudod, ganapirobebs ekosistemebis mravalferovneba da qveynis reliefi –

maRali mTebi da wylis uxvi resursebi, aseve zRvis siaxlove.

aRniSnuli klimaturi cvlilebebisa da stiqiuri movlenebis mavne

Sedegebs amZafrebs energetikuli krizisis periodSi (1990-iani wlebi) gakafuli

tyeebi da qarsacavebi, wylis resursebis marTvis (napirsamagri, sadrenaJo,

sairigacio) sistemebis gaumarTaoba, rac aisaxeba niadagis eroziaze. es ki

amcirebs sasoflo-sameurneo savargulebis farTobebsa da maT nayofierebas.

gauTvaliswinebeli stiqiuri movlenebis Sedegebis likvidaciisaTvis

aucilebeli xdeba sul ufro meti fuladi saxsrebis daxarjva, rac mZime

tvirTad awveba qveynis ekonomikas.

dakvirvebebma da kvlevebma gamoavlina klimatis cvlilebis Sedegebisadmi

gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi saqarTveloSi.

diagrama 3.9. saSualo temperaturebis cvlileba prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-

Si (Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli

maCveneblebi).


diagrama 3.10. naleqebis wliuri jamis cvlileba prioritetul regionebSi 1955-2005 ww-

Si (Sedarebulia 1955-1970 da 1990-2005 ww-is 15-wliani periodebis gasaSualoebuli

maCveneblebi).

Savi zRvis sanapiro zoli (H2)

zRvis sanapiro zoli yvelgan, mTel msoflioSi, amJRavnebs

gansakuTrebul mgrZnobiarobas klimatis cvlilebis mavne zegavlenis mimarT

da am mxriv gamonakliss arc saqarTvelos SavizRvispireTi warmoadgens, sadac

sanapiro zolis mTel sigrZeze SeiniSneba zRvis donis aweva xmeleTTan

SedarebiT, Stormebis gaxSireba da gaZliereba, zRvaSi mdinareebis Camonatanis

gazrda da zRvis zedapiruli wylebis temperaturis cvlileba. klimatis

cvlilebasTan dakavSirebuli es Sedegebi gansakuTrebiT mwvave viTarebas qmnis

md. rionis deltaSi, q. foTTan, sadac aris ormagi problema (Seqmnili mdinaris

ori totiT): erTi mxriv, zRvis SemoWra da xmeleTis mitaceba da, meore mxriv,

mdinaris SeWra zRvaSi da iq naSalis Catana. uaxlesi kvlevebi (klimatis

cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciisadmi wardgenili saqarTvelos II erovnuli

Setyobineba, 2009) aCvenebs, rom Savi zRvis sanapiro zona warmoadgens

saqarTveloSi amJamad yvelaze mowyvlad ekosistemas klimatis cvlilebisadmi

da modelirebuli prognozebi 2100 wlisaTvis kidev ufro savalalo suraTs

gvixatavs.

diagrama 3.11. sxvadasxva siZlieris Stormebis jamuri raodenobis da wilis dinamika

saqarTvelos SavizRvispireTSi.


qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni) (H2)

aq gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia naleqebis raodenobis momateba. Secvlilia

TviT naleqebis mosvlis reJimi _ ufro xSiri da uxvia, magram ufro

moklexniani. amis Sedegia gaxSirebuli da gaZlierebuli wyaldidobebi, zvavebi,

mewyerebi da Rvarcofebi. niadagis gaZlierebuli erozia, rasac xels uwyobs

gaCexili tyeebic, did zarals ayenebs raionis ekonomikas da iwvevs migraciis

tendencias.

diagrama 3.12. wyaldidobebis maxasiaTeblebi md. cxeniswylis auzSi.

diagrama 3.13. mewyerebis dinamika lentexis raionis dazianebul adgilebSi, 1980-1998.

dedofliswyaros raioni (H2)

klimatis cvlilebis mavne gavlena gamoixateba gvalvis gaxSirebaSi, wylis

resursebis daklebasa da miwis degradaciaSi. moSlili qarsacavi zoli da

irigaciis sistema (me-20 saukunis bolos, politikur-ekonomikuri krizisis

dros) damatebiT problemebs uqmnis soflis meurneobisaTvis am Zalian

mniSvnelovani regionis ekonomikur sargeblianobas.

diagrama 3.14. gvalvis dinamika dedofliswyaros raionSi.


diagrama 3.15. wylis danaklisi soflis meurneobaSi

SeniSvna: wylis danaklisi Sefasebulia wylis resursebis marTvis WEAP modeliT.

SavizRvispireTis, qvemo svaneTisa da dedofliswyaros regionebis

aRniSnuli problemebis garda, saqarTveloSi, savaraudod, arsebobs kidev sxva

regionebi da sferoebi, sadac jer kidev ar aris Seswavlili klimatis

cvlilebis zegavlena. aq igulisxmeba mdinareebis adidebasTan dakavSirebuli

gaxSirebuli wyaldidobebi, rac xdeba TiTqmis yvela raionSi, myinvarebis

dnobasTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi da a.S., rac uaxloes momavalSi

aucileblad moiTxovs gamokvlevas.

3. saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi

90-iani wlebis meore naxevarSi saqarTveloში saTburis gazebis emisiebi

DsaSualod 4-jer Semcirda. es gamowveuli iyo politikuri ZvrebiT da

ekonomikis moSliT. gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani gavlena iqonia energetikulma

krizisma, ramac mkveTrad Seamcira wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmareba da

imavdroulad daeca mrewvelobac (da saerTod ekonomika). A

miuxedavad qveynis mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp) maCvenebilis zrdisa (9-

11%) 2003-2007 wlebSi, qveynis saerTo emisia 2006 wlisaTvis jer isev 1990 wlis

donis meoTxedi iyo.

diagrama 3.16. saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis emisiebis trendi 1990-2006 ww.


diagrama 3.17.saTburis gazebis emisiebi 1990-2006 ww. seqtorebis mixedviT.

SeniSvna: am da momdevno diagramebze warmodgenili seqtorebis klasifikacia miyveba IPCC-s klasifikacias

(saTburis gazebis emisiebis inventarizaciis saxelmZRvanelo dokumenti), romlis mixedviTac, energetikis

seqtori moicavs wiaRiseuli sawvavis moxmarebis mTel sferos, transportis CaTvliT, xolo narCenebis

seqtori – nagavsayrelebsa da Camdinare wylebs, romelTaganac warmoiSoba saTburis gazebi.

specifikuria tyeebis wili saTburi airebis emisiaSi: xeebis asakidan da

saxeobidan gamomdinare tye jamurad SeiZleba iyos saTburis gazebis an

gamfrqvevi, an STamnTqmeli. 2000 wlidan saqarTvelos saTburis gazebis

gafrqvevasa da Sefaseba-aRricxvaSi gaTvaliswinebulia tyis es specifika.

miuxedavad wliuri variaciebisa tyeebi saqarTveloSi STanTqmis wyaroa. 2000-

2006 wlebis inventarizaciis Sedegebi tyeebis gaTvaliswinebiT warmodgenilia

me-18 diagramaze.

diagrama 3.18. saTburis gazebis emisiebi 2000-2006 wlebSi seqtorebis mixedviT (tyeebis CaTvliT).

diagramebidan Cans, rom energetikis seqtori saqarTveloSi, sxva qveynebis

msgavsad, wamyvania saTburis gazebis gafrqvevis TvalsazrisiT. miuxedavad

mniSvnelovani dasustebisa 1990-iani wlebis politikuri kataklizmebis Semdeg,

energetika amJamad saqarTveloSi aRmavlobis gzazea. Sesabamisad, saTburis


gazebis emisiebic zrdis tendencias amJRavnebs. energetikis seqtoridan

gansakuTrebiT didi gafrqvevebi transportis qveseqtoridanaa.

diagrama 3.19. saTburis gazebis emisiebis dinamika transportis seqtoridan.

amJamad saqarTvelos wili saTburis gazebis msoflio emisiebSi Zalian

mcirea da 0.01 %-ze naklebs Seadgens. saqarTvelos meore erovnul Setyobinebis

farglebSi gakeTebulma Sefasebebma aCvena, rom 2025 wlisaTvis energetikis

seqtoridan saTburis gazebis emisia 3-jer gaizrdeba 2006 wlis donesTan

SedarebiT, Tumca is jer kidev 2-jer naklebi iqneba 1990 wlis doneze. amave

dokumentis farglebSi Sefasda saTburis gazebis emisiebis Semamcirebeli

RonisZiebebis gatarebis ori sxvadasxva scenari: erTi, rodesac es Semcireba

TavisiT xdeba, sazogadoebis mier sxvadasxva individualuri Tu jgufuri

proeqtis ganxorcielebis safuZvelze da romlis Sedegadac 2025 wlisaTvis

12%-iT naklebi iqneba gafrqvevebi energetikis seqtoridan tradiciuli biznesis

(e.i. roca araferi keTdeba) scenarTan SedarebiT da meore, `erTiani samTavrobo

politikis scenari~, romlis SemTxvevaSic xorcieldeba sxvadasxva samTavrobo

programa emisiebis Sesamcireblad da am SemTxvevaSi danazogi 2025 wlisaTvis

aranakleb 24% iqneba. yvelaze mniSvnelovani resursebi saTburis gazebis

emisiebis Sesamcireblad aris, erTi mxriv, wiaRiseuli sawvavis Canacvleba

ganaxlebadi energoresursebiT eleqtro da Tburi energiebis generaciis da

Tburi energiis moxmarebis qveseqtorebSi da meore mxriv, energoefeqtianobis

gazrda saerTod mTel energetikaSi (mopovebidan-moxmarebis CaTvliT);

transportis seqtorSi, erTi mxriv, sawvavis Canacvleba (benzinisa da dizelis

sawvavis Secvla gaziT, romelsac globaluri daTbobis naklebi potenciali

aqvs) da, meore mxriv, moZraobis sqemebis optimizacia; axali teqnologiebis

Semotana warmoebaSi; energodamzogavi mSenebloba, sxvadasxva warmoebis narCeni

energiebis (siTbos) gamoyeneba da sxv. saqarTvelosTvis gansakuTrebul

SesaZleblobas saTburis gazebis emisiebis Sesamcireblad iZleva sufTa

ganviTarebis meqanizmi, romelic kiotos protokoliT gansazRvruli,

damatebiTi sufTa investiciebis Semomtani meqanizmia.

klimatis cvlilebasTan adaptacia (H2)

garda saTburis gazebis emisiebis Semcirebisa, klimatis cvlilebis

konvencia iTvaliswinebs klimatis cvlilebis SedegebTan adaptaciis

RonisZiebebis gatarebis aucileblobasac. rogorc saqarTveloSi, ise msoflios


mraval qveyanaSi mwvaved dgas klimatis mimdinare cvlilebiT gamowveuli

zianis aRdgenisa da misadmi medegobis aRdgenis RonisZiebebis saswrafod

gatarebis aucilebloba. rogorc wesi, aseTi RonisZiebebi moiTxovs

mniSvnelovan xarjebs. gansakuTrebiT mowyvladi regionebis, seqtorebisa da

ekosistemebis drouli gamovlena da Sesabamisi saadaptacio RonisZiebebis

gansazRvra, maTTvis aucilebeli xarjebis gamoTvlasa da moZiebasTan erTad,

warmoadgens kidev erT, Zalian mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas klimatis cvlilebis

sferoSi. gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis mimarT 2009 wels

wardgenil saqarTvelos II erovnul SetyobinebaSi Sefasda sami savaraudod

yvelaze mowyvladi regioni (SavizRvispireTi, dedofliswyaro da qvemo svaneTi),

romelTaTvisac momzadda saadaptacio strategiebi, sadac gaTvaliswinebulia

is gadaudebeli RonisZiebebi, romelTa ganxorcieleba aucilebelia klimatis

cvlilebiT gamowveuli riskebis Sesamcireblad am regionebSi. aRniSnul

strategiebs Tan axlavs konkretuli saproeqto winadadebebi. sul SemuSavda 8

saadaptacio winadadeba: sami winadadeba momzadebulia Savi zRvis sanapiro

zonisaTvis da iTvaliswinebs rogorc napiraRdgeniT/napirdacviT samuSaoebs

(baTumi-adlia, rionis delta), agreTve adreuli Setyobinebis sistemis mowyobas

rionis deltaSi; dedofliswyaros regionisaTvis gamoikveTa qarsafarebis

gadaudebeli reabilitacia, plantaciuri tyeebis gaSeneba da irigaciis

sistemebis optimaluri reabilitacia; rac Seexeba qvemo svaneTs, aq ZiriTadi

aqcenti mewyerebis gaaqtiurebis sawinaaRmdego RonisZiebebzea gakeTebuli,

kerZod _ am regionSi Txilis kulturis moSenebaze. kidev erTi, saproeqto

winadadeba ganixilvs saadaptacio RonisZiebebs myinvarebis (WaWi, devdoraki,

abano da gergeti) dnobis Sedegad adgilobrivi soflebisa da darialis

xeobisaTvis (samxedro gza) SesaZlo zianis miyenebis Sesamcireblad. Ees

saproeqto winadadebebi dagzavnilia sxvadasxa donorTan dafinansebis

mopovebis mizniT. dedofliswyaros raionis saproeqto winadadebebis

safuZvelze germaniis teqnikuri TanamSromlobis organizaciam (GTZ) 2008 wels

gamoyo Tanxebi saqarTveloSi klimatis cvlilebis gavleniT degradirebuli

miwebis reabilitaciisaTvis, romelic xorcieldeba dedofliswyaros raionSi.

momavlisaTvis aucilebelia erTiani erovnuli saadaptacio gegmis momzadeba,

romelic iqneba saerTo erovnuli ganviTarebis gegmis nawili, daeyrdnoba

arsebuli mdgomareobisa da resursebis Sefasebas da warmoadgens arCeuli

prioritetebis mixedviT droSi gaweril RonisZiebebs Sesabamisi finansuri da

teqnikuri uzrunvelyofis gaTvaliswinebiT.

K

4. ZiriTadi gamowvevebi

saqarTveloSi klimatis globaluri cvlilebis Sedegebis Seswavlaanalizma

gamoavlina klimaturi parametrebis (saSualo wliuri, maqsimaluri da

minimaluri temperatura, naleqTa saSualo wliuri jami da naleqebis mosvlis

reJimi) sagrZnobi cvlilebebi me-20 s-is dasawyisidan dRemde.Ees cvlilebebi

aisaxeba sxvadasxva ekosistemis maxasiaTeblebze, maT xarisxobriv degradaciaze,

ekonomikuri efeqtianobis Semcirebaze. saqarTveloSi iseve, rogorc mTel

msoflioSi, aRiniSneba eqstremaluri klimaturi movlenebis gaxSireba

(Stormebi, qariSxlebi, wyaldidobebi, zvavebi, mewyerebi, siTburi talRebi), rac

didwilad ukavSirdeba klimatis cvlilebis process.

klimatis globaluri cvlilebis lokaluri Sedegebis Seswavlam

saqarTveloSi gamoavlina gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare regionebi _ Savi zRvis

sanapiro zoli, dedofliswyaros regioni da qvemo svaneTi (lentexis raioni),

sadac saWiroa dauyovnebeli saadaptacio RonisZiebebi.

klimatis cvlilebis Sedegebis simwvavidan gamomdinare, saqarTvelom

klimatis cvlilebis politikis sferoSi qveynis prioritetul mimarTulebad


klimatis cvlilebasa da mis SedegebTan adaptacia aRiara, rac Sesabamisad

aisaxa konvenciis samdivnoSi saqarTvelos mier wardgenil sakuTar poziciaSi.

mimdinareobs seriozuli muSaoba erovnuli saadaptacio samoqmedo gegmis

Sesaqmnelad, rac qveyanas daexmareba gasatarebeli RonisZiebebis organizebasa

da saxsrebis mozidvaSi. aseTi gegmis Seqmna Zalian Sromatevadi samuSaoa da

moiTxovs mravalmxriv Zalisxmevas mecnieruli, ekonomikuri, finansuri da

teqnikuri potencialis mobilizebisa da gamoyenebis TvalsazrisiT.

paralelurad mimdinareobs saerTaSoriso (maT Soris, gkcCk-is farglebSi

arsebuli) finansuri meqanizmebis (pirvel rigSi, kiotos protokolTan

arsebuli adaptaciis fondis) gamoyenebis SesaZleblobebis Seswavla.

rac Seexeba klimatis cvlilebis Serbilebis mimarTulebas, miuxedavad

saTburis gazebis mcire emisiisa, saqarTvelo, rogorc gaeros klimatis

cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis mxare da misi kiotos protokolis wevri-qveyana,

apirebs gaataros RonisZiebebi am emisiebis Sesamcirebladac. es gadawyvetileba

aisaxa saqarTvelos mier 2009 wlis dekemberSi kopenhagenSi miRebul

dokumentTan (e.w. `kopenhagenis akordi~) mierTebis oficialur ganacxadSic.

saTburis gazebis emisiis Sesamcireblad saqarTvelo prioritetulad miiCnevs

sufTa ganviTarebis meqanizmis sruli siZlieriT amoqmedebas uaxloes sam

weliwadSi (2012 wlamde, roca iwureba kiotos protokoliT gaTvaliswinebuli

pirveli savaldebulo periodi). amJamad saqarTveloSi registrirebulia sufTa

ganviTarebis meqanizmis 2 proeqti (`nagavsayrelis gazis CaWera da

eleqtroenergiis gamomuSaveba TbilisSi~ da `gaJonvebis Semcireba

`yaztransgaz-Tbilisis~ gazis gamanawilebeli sistemis miwiszeda gazis

gamanawilebeli mowyobilobebidan-Tbilisi, saqarTvelo~), ramdenime ki

damuSavebis procesSia. kidev erTi ZiriTadi mimarTuleba am kuTxiT aris

saTburis gazebis Semcirebis erovnuli gegmis SemuSaveba, rac gegmur CarCoebSi

moaqcevs saTburis gazebis Semcirebis RoniZiebebs. am erovnuli gegmis

SemuSaveba sakmaod seriozul kvlevebs da, Sesabamisad, did Tanxebs moiTxovs,

rac qveyanam unda miiRos saerTaSoriso donorebisagan. es ki mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli konvenciis farglebSi mimdinare molaparakebebis Sedegebze.

2010 wlis dekemberSi gaeros klimatis cvlilebis CarCo-konvenciis

mxareTa Sexvedram unda gadawyvitos saTburis gazebis emisiis Semcirebis

mimarTulebiT maTi raodenobrivi valdebulebebis da klimatis cvlilebis

sferoSi gasatarebeli momavali msoflio politikis sakiTxebi. kiotos

protokolis Semcvleli xelSekrulebis Sinaarsze didadaa damokidebuli

wevri-qveynebis Semdgomi erovnuli politikis mimarTulebebic da es

xelSekruleba mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs saqarTvelos 2012 wlis Semdgom

politikas klimatis cvlilebis sferoSi.

gamoyenebuli literatura:

1. saqarTvelos meore erovnuli Setyobineba klimatis cvlilebis CarCokonvenciisaTvis,

Tbilisi, 2009

2. IPCC 4 th Assessment Report , 2007

3. Nakicenovic, N.et. al. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. IPCC, Cambridge, 2000

4. saqarTvelos mTavrobis pozicia klimatis cvlilebis politikis Sesaxeb 2010-2012

ww.

5. Association of Georgia with the Copenhagen Accord (oficialuri werili danarTiT emisiebis

Semcirebis Sesaxeb)

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