Informatiememorandum Annastede Vastgoed CV - First Table Asset ...

e Netherlands retail market
Sectie 4 Onroerendgoedportefeuille
umn Inleiding 2009
Perspectief voor de detailhandelsmarkt in
Nederland 3
Gedurende 2009 is ruim 400.000 m2 winkelruimte 6.0%
aan de voorraad toegevoegd en het jaar 2010 zal dit
4.5%
metrage naar verwachting overstijgen. Veel ontwik-
3.0%
kelingen zijn echter voorlopig (of zelfs definitief) uit-
gesteld. De opname van vierkante meters winkelruimte 1.5%
is over de eerste drie kwartalen van 2009 teruggevallen
naar ca. 230.000 m2 , ten opzichte van ca. 430.000 m2 0.0%
04 05 06 07 08 09 Q3
stgoedmarkt in 2008. / Property Positief NL is / Savills dat gedurende Research 2009 diverse nieuwe Source: Oxford Economics
(buitenlandse) toetreders de Nederlandse winkelmarkt
hebben betreden en dienovereenkomstig de opname
Economy and letting 17
and vacancy Na een scherpe rate economische teruggang van de
Currently the Dutch economy is hitting the bottom of its
Forecast
cycle. Key
key
economic
economic
indicators
indicators
show negative figures,
Forecast key economic indicators
but seem to be stabilizing. During the past year the
Nederlandse economie lijkt het dieptepunt in de zomer
Take-up Vacancy rate
GDP dropped GDP Unemployment from +3,2% rate in Consumer Q2 2008 prices to Consumer -5,4% expenditure in Q2
van 2009 te zijn bereikt. Diverse indicatoren lijken 10.5% te 2009. 10% In Q3 the figures are slightly better with a rate of
wijzen op een voorzichtig herstel, hoewel een volledig
9.0%
economisch herstel naar verwachting nog enige jaren
zal duren.
7.5%
-3,7% compared to the same quarter last year and the
8%
expectations for 2010 are that economic growth could
6%
show positive figures again. The labour market
4% remained quite resilient up to now. Although the
1
retail market is facing challenging times with low sales and
van winkelmeters hebben bevorderd.
GDP growth and consumer confidence
GDP growth and consumer confidence
term forecasts not being positive. These are the times where
2
GDP Consumer confidence
ood retailers Aan de beleggingszijde will is het prove investeringsvolume themselves. The same goes for the
beperkt geweest in 2009 tot een niveau van circa
6%
rty market: transactions are low and interest is mainly
730 miljoen over de eerste drie kwartalen. Door het
4%
beperkte transactievolume zijn de vastgoedprijzen in de
offer interesting possibilities.” 2%
eerste helft van 2009 gedaald. Sinds de zomer zijn de
ed on prime locations. For investors with capital this market
aanvangsrendementen stabiel of zelfs al licht gedaald.
Derhalve is de huidige periode voor liquide beleggers
r a steep slide the Dutch economy has
he bottom of it’s cycle. Recovery will
ever take time due to the global nature of the
ssion.
een uitstekend instapmoment voor de verwerving van
beleggingen in winkel onroerend goed, waarmee op de
huidige lage waardering wordt geanticipeerd en positie
wordt gekozen voordat economisch herstel optreedt.
ing 2009 just over 400,000 sqm of shopping
was added to the stock and in 2010 this
even be more. Many projects in the
line for coming years are being postponed or
celled.
-up in the first three quarters of this year is
,000 sqm, which is significantly less than the
,000 sqm in 2008. Still, over 2009 a number of
entries to the retail market boosted take-up.
Economy
Growth in %
number 2% of job vacancies is decreasing fast,
unemployment 0% is only slowly on a rise: up from 3.9%
to 5.1% -2% during the last 12 months. This is partly to do
with the specific governmental actions preventing
-4%
unnecessary unemployment and partly to students
-6%
entering new courses instead of the labour market.
Consumer -8% confidence has been negative for two years
08 Q1 08 Q3 09 Q1 09 Q3 10 Q1 10 Q3 11 Q1 11 Q3 12 Q1 12 Q3
and is fluctuating between -20 and -30, while
purchasing power for this year is still positive
(+1.75%).
GDP annual growth in %
Jan Peter Hebly (Managing Director - retail department)
Gall & Gall
0%
-2%
Large investment transactions
-20
were scarce in 2009, limiting the total amount of -25
-4%
investments to €730 million so far.
-30
-6%
05 Q3 06 Q3 07 Q3 08 Q3 09 Q3
Yields have readjusted to the market situation
during 2008 and yields for prime retail have now
Source: CBS
stablised currently stable.
Letting The number Market of leasing transactions will be limited
during 2010 and 2011 and pick up again in 2012
Consumer demand
when the economic recovery is underway.
Since the start of the year private consumption has
decreased 1 Bron: For Oxford retail Economics strongly investors and with this is access clearly to visible capital, in now the is
2 Bron: CBS
spending 3 the right in stores. time to Overall (re)enter sales the growth Dutch retail shows market. a -5%
Bron: The Netherlands Retail Market - Autumn 2009, Savills Research
figure, Capital while prices sales for have durable been and readjusted DIY goods and are positions more
than should 10% lower be taken than before last year. the Despite economic the recovery. economic
headwind supermarkets do remain able to keep sales
on a stable level, but also for them growth is currently
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-35
Consumer confidence
200
Annual growth in %
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
-14
Sourc
Reta
Reta
situa
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wea
whic
Due
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Vaca
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dem
The
and
wan
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Koto
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With
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shak
wou
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canc