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A. Juriˇ<strong>si</strong>ć in V. Batagelj: Verjetnostni račun in statistika 297 ✬ ✫ Osnovni izrek statistike Spremenljivka X ima na populaciji G porazdelitev F (x) = P (X < x). Toda tudi vsakemu vzorcu ustreza neka porazdelitev. Za realizacijo vzorca (x1, x2, x3, . . . , xn) in x ∈ R postavimo K(x) = {xi : xi < x, i = 1, . . . , n} in Vn(x) = K(x)/n. Slučajni spremenljivki Vn(x) pravimo vzorčna porazdelitvena funkcija. Ker ima, tako kot tudi K(x), n + 1 moˇznih vrednosti k/n, k = 0, . . . , n, je njena verjetnostna funkcija B(n, F (x)) n P (Vn(x) = k/n) = F (x) k k (1 − F (x)) n−k . Univerza v Ljubljani ▲ ❙ ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ❙ ▲ ▲ ☛ ✖ ✩ ✪
A. Juriˇ<strong>si</strong>ć in V. Batagelj: Verjetnostni račun in statistika 298 ✬ ✫ . . . Osnovni izrek statistike Če vzamemo n neodvisnih Bernoullijevih spremenljivk ⎛ ⎞ 1 0 Yi(x) : ⎝ ⎠ , F (x) 1 − F (x) velja Vn(x) = 1 n n Yi(x). i=1 Krepki zakon velikih ˇstevil tedaj zagotavlja, da za vsak x velja P lim n→∞ Vn(x) = F (x) = 1. To je v bistvu Borelov zakon, da relativna frekvenca dogodka (X < x) skoraj gotovo konvergira proti verjetnosti tega dogodka. Univerza v Ljubljani ▲ ❙ ▲ ▲ ▲ ● ❙ ▲ ▲ ☛ ✖ ✩ ✪
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✬ ✫ Ljubljana, 6. oktober 2008
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