RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv - UNDP

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Days without Rainfall 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 1972 1975 1973 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Z_¨ wPÎ 10 iscyi †K‡›`ª evwl©K e„wócv‡Zi cÖeYZv I e„wócvZnxb wè‡mi msL¨v m~Î: ingvb m¤úvw`Z, 2007 evwl©K Mo m‡e©v”P I me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎvi mvwe©K cÖeYZvq 1961-90 †gqv`Kv‡j Zvrch©c~Y© e„w× cwijw¶Z n‡q‡Q| Mo cÖeYZvq AvÂwjK ZviZg¨ RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv AvMó 2009 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 y = 0.4483 x + 247.86 R 2 = 0.0282 y = 12.565 x + 2067.6 R = 0.041 1995 Days without Rain Annual Total 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Linear (Annual Total) Linear (Days without Rain) mviwY 8 wZbwU DcK‚jxq †K‡›`ª †Rvqv‡ii cÖeYZv 2001 2002 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Rainfall in m m †`Lv †M‡Q (GmGgAviwm, 2003)| 1978 mvj †_‡K 2002 mvj ch©šÍ iscyi †÷kb †_‡K cÖvß Dcv‡Ë †`Lv †M‡Q †h, mvwe©K evwl©K m‡e©v”P I me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎv mvaviYfv‡e cÖwZeQi 0.035 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm I 0.027 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm nv‡i e„w× †c‡q‡Q| Z‡e el©v †gŠmy‡g m‡e©v”P ZvgcvÎv cwieZ©‡bi nvi evwl©K cwieZ©‡bi nv‡ii Zzjbvq Kg| el©v †gŠmy‡g (Ryb, RyjvB I AvM÷) Mo m‡e©v”P ZvcgvÎv 0.02 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm nv‡i cÖwZeQi e„w×i cÖeYZv †`Lv †M‡Q| Ab¨w`‡K, el©v †gŠmy‡g me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎvq cwieZ©b D‡jøL‡hvM¨ bq| Ab¨w`‡K kxZKv‡j (wW‡m¤î, Rvbyqvwi I †deªæqvwi) Mo m‡e©v”P ZvcgvÎvi †¶‡Î 0.041 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm evwl©K nv‡i e„w×i cÖeYZv †`Lv †M‡Q| Avevi me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎvi †¶‡Î 0.026 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm nv‡i cÖwZeQi e„w×i cÖeYZv j¶¨ Kiv ‡Rvqvi †K›`ª AÂj A¶vsk (DËi) `ªvwNgvsk (c~e©) mgy`ª c„‡ôi D”PZv (wgUvi) cÖeYZv (gvm/eQi) wniY c‡qÈ cwðgvÂj 21º48 89º28 3.784 4.0 Pi †Q½v ga¨vÂj 22º08 91º06 4.996 6.0 K•evRvi c~e©vÂj 21º26 91º59 4.836 7.8 m~Î : GmGgAviwm, bs-3 mviwY 9 evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ bvcv cÖYq‡b eëüZ fwel¨r Rjevqy cwiw¯’wZ g‡Wj eQi ZvcgvÎvi cwieZ©b (wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm) Mo (÷¨vÛvW© †Wwf‡qkb) e„wócvZ cwieZ©b (%) Mo (÷¨vÛvW© †Wwf‡qkb) evwl©K wW‡RGd ‡R‡RG evwl©K wW‡RGd ‡R‡RG wRwmGg 2030 1.0 1.1 0.8 5 - 2 6 †cÖwmm 2030 (m‡e©v”P) 0.3 -0.02 1.3* 2030 me©wbgœ 1.18 0.65 1.78* wRwmGg 2050 1.4 1.6 1.1 6 - 5 8 ‡cÖwmm 2050 (m‡e©v”P) 0.2 0.07 0.89* 2050 (me©wbgœ) 1.24 0.59 1.65* 2.3 -4.7 3.0 m~Î : GgIBGd, 2005, ey‡qU, 2008 ‡bvU : wW‡RGd= wW‡m¤î, Rvbyqvwi I †deªæqvwi; †R‡RG =Ryb,RyjvB I AvM÷ Ges *= Ryb, RyjvB, AvM÷ I †m‡Þ¤î 4 -8.7 Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi cÖfve, Awf‡hvRb I SzuwK 3.8 mgy`ª c„‡ôi D”PZv e„w× (†mwg) 14 32 21
e·-1 evsjv‡`‡k M‡o IVv Rjevqy cwieZ©b cwiw¯’wZ msµvšÍ Áv‡bi wfwË evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ hy³iv‡óªi Rjevqy cwieZ©b mgx¶v `‡ji eëüZ †Rbv‡ij mvKy©‡jkb g‡Wj (wRwmGg) wfwËK wi‡cv‡U© ejv n‡q‡Q †h, 2030 I 2070 mv‡j ZvcgvÎv M‡o 1.3 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm I 2.6 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm e„w× cv‡e| G‡Z Av‡iv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q †h, cwiewZ©Z ZvcgvÎvq †gŠmygwfwËK ZviZg¨ n‡Z cv‡i| †hgb 2030 mv‡j kxZKv‡j 1.4 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm I el©v †gŠmy‡g 0.7 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm| 2070 mv‡j ZviZg¨ n‡e kxZKv‡j 2.1 wWwMÖ I el©v †gŠmy‡g 1.7 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm| e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î aviYv Kiv n‡”Q †h, 2030 mv‡j kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ nIqvi nvi n‡e bMY¨| Ab¨w`‡K 2075 mv‡j kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ †gv‡UI n‡e bv e‡j aviYv Kiv n‡”Q| Ab¨w`‡K el©v †gŠmy‡g D‡jøwLZ `ywU eQ‡ii †gqv‡` e„wócvZ 12% I 27% ch©šÍ e„w× cv‡e (Avn‡g` I Abïv, 1999)| G‡Z Av‡iv ejv n‡q‡Q †h, Gi d‡j el©vKv‡j gvÎvwaK e„wócv‡Z eb¨v Ges kxZKv‡j †Kvb e„wócvZ bv nIqvi Kvi‡Y Liv n‡e| 2075 mv‡j kxZKv‡j I el©v †gŠmy‡g ev®úvq‡bi †¶‡Î e¨vcK cwieZ©b NU‡e| wRwmGg e‡j‡Q †h, 2030 mv‡ji g‡a¨ Rjevqy cwigv‡ci †¶‡Î gvSvwi cwieZ©b NU‡e, Ab¨w`‡K 2075 mvj bvMv` gvivZ¥K cwieZ©b NU‡e| djvd‡j ZvcgvÎv e„w×i cÖeYZviI D‡jøL Kiv n‡q‡Q| 2030 mv‡j kx‡Zi gvm¸‡jv‡Z ZvcgvÎv e„w×i m¤¢vebv †ewk| kxZKvj cieZx© gvm¸‡jv †hgb GwcÖj, †g I Ryb gv‡m me©vwaK cwieZ©b NU‡Z cv‡i| Z‡e 2075 mv‡j GwcÖj I †g gv‡m ZvcgvÎv cÖvq 4.0 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm evo‡Z cv‡i (Avn‡g` I Abïv, 1999)| IBwmwW m¤cÖwZ GgGwRAvBwmwm/GmwmBGbwRBGb bZzb ms¯‹iY eënvi K‡i Mo ZvcgvÎv I e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î cwieZ©b g~j¨vqb Ki‡Z evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ 17wU †Rbv‡ij mvKz©‡jkb g‡Wj eënvi K‡i‡Q| Zviv 17wUi g‡a¨ 11wU‡K evQvB K‡i‡Q †h¸‡jv evsjv‡`‡ki eZ©gvb Rjevqyi Z_¨-Dcv‡Ëi m‡½ me‡P‡q †ewk gvbvbmB| †¯úkvj wi‡cvU© Ab Gwgkb wmbvwiI (GmAviBGm) we2 wmbvwiI wfwË K‡i Rjevqy cwieZ©b msµvšÍ AvšÍtmiKvi c¨v‡b‡ji (AvBwcwmwm) mn‡hvwMZvq g‡Wj¸‡jv cwiPvjbv Kiv n‡q‡Q (AvMiIqvjv I Abïv, 2003)| AvšÍtg‡Wj mvgvb¨ ZviZg¨mn mKj Rjevqy g‡W‡j evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ ZvcgvÎvi †¶‡Î e„w× Ae¨vnZ _vK‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv n‡q‡Q| MÖx®§Kv‡ji Zzjbvq kxZKv‡j AwaKZi DòZv _vK‡Z cv‡i| e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Rb¨ n«vm-e„w×i welqwU evsjv‡`‡k Rjevqy cwieZ©b KZ`~i ¶wZKi n‡e Zv cwigv‡ci Rb¨ ¸iæZ¡c~Y©| cvwb mswkøó `y‡h©v‡Mi †¶‡Î †`‡ki Pig wecbœZv we‡ePbv Ki‡Z n‡e| AwaKvsk Rjevqy g‡W‡j a‡i †bqv n‡q‡Q MÖx®§Kv‡j mgy‡`ªi Ic‡ii evqyi Zzjbvq f~L‡Ûi Ic‡ii evqy †ewk Dò nIqvi Kvi‡Y MÖx®§ †gŠmy‡g e„wócvZ e„w× cv‡e| G‡Z f~-L‡Ûi Dcwifv‡M wbgœPvc Mfxi n‡e hv MÖx®§Kv‡jB N‡U _v‡K Ges el©vKv‡j Zv Av‡iv e„w× cv‡e| D‡jøL¨ †h, MÖx®§Kv‡j e„wócv‡Zi m¤¢ve¨ e„w× n‡e Zvrch©c~Y© Ges wewfbœ g‡W‡ji †¶‡Î Zv cÖvgvY¨ ZviZ‡gï †P‡qI †ewk n‡e| Zvi A_© GB bq †h, AwaK e„wócvZ mywbwðZ eis Zv †Kej Av¯’v e„w× K‡i †h GgbwU n‡Z cv‡i| Rjevqy g‡Wj¸‡jv‡Z wW‡m¤î †_‡K †deªæqvwi ch©šÍ kx‡Zi gvm¸‡jv‡Z e„wócvZ mvgvb¨ n«vm cvIqvi cÖeYZvi c~e©vfvm wKQyUv n«vm cvIqvi cvkvcvwk AwaK ZvgcvÎvq ev¯úvqb e„w×i d‡j ï®‹ VvÛv cwiw¯’wZ GgbwK Liv cwiw¯’wZi AebwZ n‡Z c‡i (AvMiIqvjv I Abïv, 2003)| ‡cÖwmm g‡W‡ji djvd‡j †`Lv †M‡Q †h, ¯’vb I Kv‡ji cwi‡cÖw¶‡Z m‡e©v”P I me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎvq wfbœZv cwijw¶Z nq| wKQy wKQy gv‡mi ZvcgvÎvi evwl©K Mo ZviZg¨ †ewk nq| m‡e©v”P ZvcgvÎvi evwl©K M‡o e„w×i cÖeYZv m‡Ë¡I †`Lv †M‡Q †h, `xN© mg‡q GB e„w× n«vm cv‡e| Ab¨w`‡K me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎv ax‡i ax‡i e„w× cv‡”Q| `xN©‡gqv‡ì ch©‡e¶‡Yi d‡j †`Lv †M‡Q †h, el©v I el©v cieZx© †gŠmy‡g e„wócvZ e„w× cv‡e, Ab¨w`‡K ï®‹ †gŠmy‡g e„wócv‡Zi cwigvY HwZnvwmK cwigv‡Yi KvQvKvwQ _vK‡e| el©vc~e© mg‡q e„wócv‡Z ZviZg¨ cwijw¶Z nq| G‡Z Abygvb Kiv nq †h, 1961-1990 wfwË †gqv‡ì ch©‡e¶‡Yi †cÖw¶‡Z 2030, 2050 I 2070 mv‡j e„wócvZ 4%, 2.3% I 6.7% e„w× cv‡e| (ey‡qU, 2008) 22 RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv AvMó 2009
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RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv - UNDP

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