RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv - UNDP

e·-1 evsjv‡`‡k M‡o IVv Rjevqy cwieZ©b cwiw¯’wZ msµvšÍ Áv‡bi wfwË
evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ hy³iv‡óªi Rjevqy cwieZ©b mgx¶v `‡ji e¨eüZ †Rbv‡ij mvKy©‡jkb g‡Wj (wRwmGg) wfwËK wi‡cv‡U© ejv n‡q‡Q
†h, 2030 I 2070 mv‡j ZvcgvÎv M‡o 1.3 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm I 2.6 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm e„w× cv‡e| G‡Z Av‡iv †`Lv‡bv n‡q‡Q †h,
cwiewZ©Z ZvcgvÎvq †gŠmygwfwËK ZviZg¨ n‡Z cv‡i| †hgb 2030 mv‡j kxZKv‡j 1.4 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm I el©v †gŠmy‡g 0.7 wWwMÖ
†mjwmqvm| 2070 mv‡j ZviZg¨ n‡e kxZKv‡j 2.1 wWwMÖ I el©v †gŠmy‡g 1.7 wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm| e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î aviYv Kiv n‡”Q
†h, 2030 mv‡j kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ nIqvi nvi n‡e bMY¨| Ab¨w`‡K 2075 mv‡j kxZKv‡j e„wócvZ †gv‡UI n‡e bv e‡j aviYv Kiv
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Ab¨w`‡K el©v †gŠmy‡g D‡jøwLZ `ywU eQ‡ii †gqv‡` e„wócvZ 12% I 27% ch©šÍ e„w× cv‡e (Avn‡g` I Ab¨iv, 1999)|
G‡Z Av‡iv ejv n‡q‡Q †h, Gi d‡j el©vKv‡j gvÎvwaK e„wócv‡Z eb¨v Ges kxZKv‡j †Kvb e„wócvZ bv nIqvi Kvi‡Y Liv n‡e| 2075
mv‡j kxZKv‡j I el©v †gŠmy‡g ev®úvq‡bi †¶‡Î e¨vcK cwieZ©b NU‡e| wRwmGg e‡j‡Q †h, 2030 mv‡ji g‡a¨ Rjevqy cwigv‡ci
†¶‡Î gvSvwi cwieZ©b NU‡e, Ab¨w`‡K 2075 mvj bvMv` gvivZ¥K cwieZ©b NU‡e|
djvd‡j ZvcgvÎv e„w×i cÖeYZviI D‡jøL Kiv n‡q‡Q| 2030 mv‡j kx‡Zi gvm¸‡jv‡Z ZvcgvÎv e„w×i m¤¢vebv †ewk| kxZKvj
cieZx© gvm¸‡jv †hgb GwcÖj, †g I Ryb gv‡m me©vwaK cwieZ©b NU‡Z cv‡i| Z‡e 2075 mv‡j GwcÖj I †g gv‡m ZvcgvÎv cÖvq 4.0
wWwMÖ †mjwmqvm evo‡Z cv‡i (Avn‡g` I Ab¨iv, 1999)|
IBwmwW m¤cÖwZ GgGwRAvBwmwm/GmwmBGbwRBGb bZzb ms¯‹iY e¨envi K‡i Mo ZvcgvÎv I e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î cwieZ©b g~j¨vqb
Ki‡Z evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ 17wU †Rbv‡ij mvKz©‡jkb g‡Wj e¨envi K‡i‡Q| Zviv 17wUi g‡a¨ 11wU‡K evQvB K‡i‡Q †h¸‡jv evsjv‡`‡ki
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K‡i Rjevqy cwieZ©b msµvšÍ AvšÍtmiKvi c¨v‡b‡ji (AvBwcwmwm) mn‡hvwMZvq g‡Wj¸‡jv cwiPvjbv Kiv n‡q‡Q (AvMiIqvjv I
Ab¨iv, 2003)|
AvšÍtg‡Wj mvgvb¨ ZviZg¨mn mKj Rjevqy g‡W‡j evsjv‡`‡ki Rb¨ ZvcgvÎvi †¶‡Î e„w× Ae¨vnZ _vK‡e e‡j Abygvb Kiv
n‡q‡Q| MÖx®§Kv‡ji Zzjbvq kxZKv‡j AwaKZi DòZv _vK‡Z cv‡i|
e„wócv‡Zi †¶‡Î Rjevqy cwieZ©‡bi Rb¨ n«vm-e„w×i welqwU evsjv‡`‡k Rjevqy cwieZ©b KZ`~i ¶wZKi n‡e Zv cwigv‡ci Rb¨
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mgy‡`ªi Ic‡ii evqyi Zzjbvq f~L‡Ûi Ic‡ii evqy †ewk Dò nIqvi Kvi‡Y MÖx®§ †gŠmy‡g e„wócvZ e„w× cv‡e| G‡Z f~-L‡Ûi Dcwifv‡M
wbgœPvc Mfxi n‡e hv MÖx®§Kv‡jB N‡U _v‡K Ges el©vKv‡j Zv Av‡iv e„w× cv‡e| D‡jøL¨ †h, MÖx®§Kv‡j e„wócv‡Zi m¤¢ve¨ e„w× n‡e
Zvrch©c~Y© Ges wewfbœ g‡W‡ji †¶‡Î Zv cÖvgvY¨ ZviZ‡g¨i †P‡qI †ewk n‡e| Zvi A_© GB bq †h, AwaK e„wócvZ mywbwðZ eis Zv
†Kej Av¯’v e„w× K‡i †h GgbwU n‡Z cv‡i| Rjevqy g‡Wj¸‡jv‡Z wW‡m¤^i †_‡K †deªæqvwi ch©šÍ kx‡Zi gvm¸‡jv‡Z e„wócvZ mvgvb¨
n«vm cvIqvi cÖeYZvi c~e©vfvm wKQyUv n«vm cvIqvi cvkvcvwk AwaK ZvgcvÎvq ev¯úvqb e„w×i d‡j ﮋ VvÛv cwiw¯’wZ GgbwK Liv
cwiw¯’wZi AebwZ n‡Z c‡i (AvMiIqvjv I Ab¨iv, 2003)|
‡cÖwmm g‡W‡ji djvd‡j †`Lv †M‡Q †h, ¯’vb I Kv‡ji cwi‡cÖw¶‡Z m‡e©v”P I me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎvq wfbœZv cwijw¶Z nq| wKQy wKQy
gv‡mi ZvcgvÎvi evwl©K Mo ZviZg¨ †ewk nq| m‡e©v”P ZvcgvÎvi evwl©K M‡o e„w×i cÖeYZv m‡Ë¡I †`Lv †M‡Q †h, `xN© mg‡q GB
e„w× n«vm cv‡e| Ab¨w`‡K me©wbgœ ZvcgvÎv ax‡i ax‡i e„w× cv‡”Q| `xN©‡gqv‡`i ch©‡e¶‡Yi d‡j †`Lv †M‡Q †h, el©v I el©v cieZx©
†gŠmy‡g e„wócvZ e„w× cv‡e, Ab¨w`‡K ﮋ †gŠmy‡g e„wócv‡Zi cwigvY HwZnvwmK cwigv‡Yi KvQvKvwQ _vK‡e| el©vc~e© mg‡q e„wócv‡Z
ZviZg¨ cwijw¶Z nq| G‡Z Abygvb Kiv nq †h, 1961-1990 wfwË †gqv‡`i ch©‡e¶‡Yi †cÖw¶‡Z 2030, 2050 I 2070 mv‡j
e„wócvZ 4%, 2.3% I 6.7% e„w× cv‡e| (ey‡qU, 2008)
22 RvZxq Awf‡hvRb Kg©-cwiKíbv
AvMó 2009