Usikkerheder ved klimascenarier - LandbrugsInfo
Usikkerheder ved klimascenarier - LandbrugsInfo
Usikkerheder ved klimascenarier - LandbrugsInfo
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Indholdsfortegnelse<br />
2 <br />
<strong>Usikkerheder</strong> <strong>ved</strong> <strong>klimascenarier</strong><br />
Indledning .............................................................................................................................. 3<br />
Formål med rapporten ....................................................................................................... 3<br />
Problemformulering ........................................................................................................... 3<br />
Temperaturvariationer ........................................................................................................... 5<br />
Temperaturvariationer globalt .......................................................................................... 5<br />
Temperatur – målt med termometre .................................................................................. 5<br />
Temperatur – målt med satellit .......................................................................................... 6<br />
Temperatur – målt med flydende bøjer i oceanerne ........................................................... 7<br />
Temperaturvariationer i Danmark .................................................................................... 8<br />
Temperatur – proxydata ................................................................................................ 12<br />
Globale klimaforudsigelser ...................................................................................................15<br />
Generelt om klimamodeller og modelforståelse ............................................................. 15<br />
Klimamodeller .................................................................................................................. 15<br />
Modellers troværdighed ................................................................................................... 15<br />
IPCC-prognose for de næste 100 år .............................................................................. 16<br />
Modelkalibrering ............................................................................................................ 17<br />
Klimasensitivitet og feedbackprocesser ................................................................................20<br />
Andre faktorer som kan påvirke klimaet ................................................................................22<br />
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ............................................................................................ 22<br />
Solens aktivitet .............................................................................................................. 23<br />
Regional klimamodel ............................................................................................................25<br />
Konklusioner .........................................................................................................................28<br />
Referencer ............................................................................................................................30