VISION: Road Transport in Europe 2025 - FEHRL

8
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2CURRENT TRENDS
start by sketching current trends, in outline technological developments are considered in
Chapter 3.
Transport Demand
250
200
150
100
50
0
Passengers
(passenger kilometres)
Source: European Commission
Goods
(tonnes kilometres)
GDP
(at constant prices)
1985
1986
1987
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 2.1 Transport growth in the European Union (EU-15)
1985 - 2010 (2001 - 2010 estimates)
The demand for road transport
has grown continuously over the
last 50 years and although
populations in some member
states are declining, the demand
for road transport is still predicted
to increase. For the ten new
European Union Member States, it
is forecast to grow by 4% a year
(see Figure 2.1).
There will be pressure for these
countries to move towards
Western European standards of
infrastructure development, road
safety and environmental
protection. According to ERF estimates, the average motorway density in Central European Countries (CEC) is
6.3 times lower than in the western EU countries (EU-15) and 14,000 km of new motorways need to be built
within the next 10 years simply to offer similar levels of network accessibility to Central and Eastern European
citizens. These countries are already investing heavily in building new infrastructure. For example, Hungary
spends 90% of infrastructure resources on the construction of new motorways. Similarly, in Slovenia, 27% of all
bridges on the main road network, comprising 48% of the entire bridge deck area, have been built in the last
15 years. However, a consequence of such policies is insufficient budget provision, for maintenance of existing
infrastructure.
The profile of the driver population is changing; people are living longer, especially in developed western
economies. It is predicted that a fifth of the population of Europe will be aged 65 or over in 2020. This is
coupled with the increase in the number of female drivers, who have historically been strongly underrepresented
in the driving population.
estimations