VISION: Road Transport in Europe 2025 - FEHRL

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6 In whatever form this happens, there are likely to be very substantial changes in technology-driven communications and financial transfer systems. These will undoubtedly be deployed widely in many aspects of everyday life, and it would be a surprise and a lost opportunity if they were not incorporated into road travel. How effective this proved, however, would depend on how well the future has been anticipated - the needs and desires - and how well the implications for the actions needed to get there were recognised and acted upon. Our Approach It is increasingly clear that the vision needs to be Europe-wide. The need for movement within and between member states will be crucial to the development of Europe's economic activity and to the well-being of individual states. The Vision described here applies to the "wider Europe" meaning the expanded EU of twenty-five member states plus the EFTA countries (Switzerland, Norway and Iceland). Much of the argument will also apply more widely still - to aspects of road transport in Russia for example - but we do not develop it in those terms. The only broad distinction we make is within the wider EU and is between Eastern and Central Europe on the one hand and Western Europe on the other; these differ in the extent of their roads infrastructure, motorisation, freight movement, and the balance between public and private transport. To envisage the future we have examined the possible types of change, and to do this we have constructed a number of "scenarios" or possible policy approaches to the currently-growing demand for movement. The extremes of these are the two above: an ideal future supply-side and a do-nothing or do-minimum supplyside. In addition we have examined three others between these extremes: a government-driven scenario, a market-driven scenario and a sustainability-driven scenario. These we believe map out the principal possibilities. From them we work towards a single future judging the likely technological, societal and policy options, and concentrating on those we think most likely to come about. This provides us with a rational framework for conceptualising. We begin with a brief overview of the current position across the wider EU and of the known time trends at present. That enables us to draw out likely future changes given current conditions in the form of a simple projection to the future. We then define the broad features of the five supply-side scenarios: the policy and practical bases according to the five different types of approach. We go on to consider future technological and financial possibilities. This we do with respect to seven primary "desirables": that travel should be smart, safe, clean, comfortable and reliable, and that access to business and leisure activities should be available in proportion to value and need, and that each part of the network should be suitable for its function. The consequences constitute our vision for 2025. We believe this future will only be accessible via a growing knowledge base. The process of building such a base needs to be pursued proactively. Accordingly, we note the main themes needed in future research programmes.
Transport in general and road transport in particular involve huge resources, and generate huge benefits. We believe that it is more than ever important to treat the future seriously, to move forward with rational programmes, and to anticipate needs and opportunities, rather than waiting reactively, and then proceeding without a coherent direction. We hope that this Visioning exercise helps to set the scene for genuine exploitation of the rapidly growing set of opportunities that technological and institutional change offer. Relationship with the ERTRAC Vision As FEHRL's President points out in his Foreword to this document, there is a relationship between the present Vision and that being prepared by ERTRAC (European Road Traffic Research Advisory Council). Both address a period of a couple of decades or so ahead. And whilst the FEHRL Vision starts from the perspective of highways and their operation, we argue that in twenty years time they will be intimately linked with both the road-vehicle communications and IT infrastructure and the financial infrastructure. Accordingly, in Chapter 6, we conclude by identifying the same four categories of enquiry and development as in ERTRAC's Vision. This enables cross referencing between the two whilst also highlighting those areas of enquiry at present more strongly associated with physical highways. The four categories are: - Design and production systems - Environment, energy and resources - Safety and security - Mobility, transport and infrastructure 7
Page 1 and 2: VISION: Road Transport in Europe 20
Page 3 and 4: Jørgen Christensen President T he
Page 5 and 6: TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION 4
Page 7: So politically there is a distincti
Page 11 and 12: Modal Split 5000 4000 3000 2000 100
Page 13 and 14: Lifestyles Changing lifestyles are
Page 15 and 16: Economic Other (travel agencies) 31
Page 17 and 18: Traffic Management Physical measure
Page 19 and 20: pressure and warn the driver when l
Page 21 and 22: use of the network caused by blocka
Page 23 and 24: government-led societies would alwa
Page 25 and 26: But we believe that in practice suc
Page 27 and 28: What users perceive and the choices
Page 29 and 30: The limited construction in Western
Page 31 and 32: Road Construction and Maintenance K
Page 33 and 34: curve radii and road geometry. Such
Page 35 and 36: user to make informed decisions or
Page 37 and 38: The third area is environmental: th
Page 39 and 40: to the view that individual cities
Page 41 and 42: The key question is when all of thi
Page 43 and 44: Design and Production Systems Devel
Page 45 and 46: Nuisance and Societal/Cultural Impa
Page 47 and 48: Capture of Accident Data ◆ Develo
Page 49 and 50: ● Determine how best to acquire,
Page 51 and 52: APPENDIX B: USERS' AND STAKEHOLDERS
Page 53 and 54: SAFE Travel Requirement The infrast
Page 55 and 56: Whilst safety would be of importanc
Page 57 and 58: COMFORTABLE Travel Requirement Stri
Page 59 and 60:
Under the Market-Led scenario users
Page 61 and 62:
Suitability of road FUNCTION Requir
Page 64:
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VISION: Road Transport in Europe 2025 - FEHRL

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