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VISION: Road Transport in Europe 2025 - FEHRL

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2<br />

B ecause<br />

PREFACE<br />

roads are so vital to <strong>Europe</strong> and because the next twenty years offer<br />

profound opportunities and challenges for their development, we need to<br />

th<strong>in</strong>k very carefully about how we can make greatest progress. <strong>FEHRL</strong> therefore<br />

decided to draw up a Vision for <strong>2025</strong> to guide the th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g and to help focus<br />

actions. This report summarises that Vision. It has been developed from the <strong>in</strong>put<br />

of a Work<strong>in</strong>g Group of representatives from n<strong>in</strong>e of the <strong>FEHRL</strong> establishments, and<br />

<strong>in</strong> conjunction with the Secretariat.<br />

All visions of the future <strong>in</strong>volve speculation. How well they work depends on how<br />

<strong>in</strong>formed that speculation is, how well the <strong>in</strong>evitable uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties are recognised,<br />

and how robust the assumptions are on which it is based. We have therefore taken<br />

some trouble to lay out the reason<strong>in</strong>g and to expla<strong>in</strong> how we conclude what the<br />

future is most likely to be. We believe the result is robust and reasonable, <strong>in</strong> that it<br />

concentrates on conclusions that are common to a range of scenarios. Time will<br />

tell.<br />

It is very clear that if we are to realise the potential benefits of a number of key<br />

developments - which could be huge - we need first to ga<strong>in</strong> an essential<br />

knowledge base. <strong>Road</strong> transport <strong>in</strong> <strong>2025</strong> will depend strongly on how well the<br />

policies and developments of com<strong>in</strong>g years are actioned. The knowledge base is<br />

on the critical path and is key to our future.<br />

Rod Kimber<br />

Chairman of the Work<strong>in</strong>g Group<br />

Director of Science and Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>Transport</strong> Research Laboratory (TRL), UK<br />

Ton Maagdenberg<br />

Vice-chairman of the Work<strong>in</strong>g Group<br />

Dienst Weg- en Waterboukunde (DWW), Netherlands

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