特别报道 2007汽车产业高峰论坛 TheLINK 2007 冬季刊 TheLINK Winter 2007/8 2007 AUTO FORUM fEaTurE 新格局下的 中国汽车产业 Changing Gears: <strong>China</strong>’s Automobile Industry Revs Up 中国已经成为全球第二大汽车市场,产业布局 已初步形成。在新形势下,从经济到政策,从竞争 到合作,从消费者特征到品牌建设,摆在各厂商面 前的各种问题都将如何展开? ChINa IS NOw ThE NO. 2 auTOmObILE marKET IN ThE wOrLd, aNd pErhapS NO. 1 IN TErmS Of COmpETITIvE fErOCITy. mOrE ThaN 1 0 Car-maKErS NOw CrOwd ChINa’S ShOwrOOmS wITh ThEIr LaTEST mOdELS, EaCh vyINg bITTErLy fOr ThE aTTENTION Of buyErS. whICh ONES wILL SuCCEEd? CEIbS aSKEd 20 LEadINg INduSTry ExpErTS ThIS aNd OThEr burNINg QuESTIONS aT ThE Th aNNuaL ChINa auTOmOTIvE INduSTry fOrum.
文 / 吴冯淑 经过近十年的迅速发展,中国已经成为世 界第二大汽车市场,吸引着全球汽车制 造商纷纷涉足。目前,中国的汽车整车企 业有 130 多家,数量之多名列世界前茅。中国市场 已经成为国际汽车制造商们全球战略中不可忽视的 重要部分。而另一方面,中国本土品牌的发展也超出 了预想,不仅在国内取得了良好的成绩,一些品牌 业已走向国际市场。同时,随着消费能力的不断提 高,中国的汽车消费者也在日益成熟起来。入世以来, 中国汽车产量增长了 3 倍(至 06 年末),民用汽车, 尤其是私人汽车消费一直保持旺盛的增长态势。中 国已经逐渐步入汽车社会。 伴随着消费者的日渐成熟和各汽车制造商在国 内的安营布局,汽车行业呈现出越来越激烈的竞争 态势。在这样的形势下,本土和外国汽车制造商在 相互竞争的同时,必须加强合作,以巩固其在中国 和国际市场的地位,谋求更好的发展。尽管本土汽 车制造已经起步,但在这个技术驱动的产业中,随 着消费者需求的不断变化,行业标准的不断提升, 中国汽车产业的发展仍需要寻求外资的支持。另一方 面,外资企业如果不借助本土力量,或适应本土需求, 很难保持市场竞争力。 中国汽车产业将会产生什么样的格局变化?宏观 经济和政策将对其产生什么样的影响?合作联盟是 否为取胜必由之路?本土制造商如何进一步打造品 牌、提升价值?...... 在日益升温的中国汽车市场,汽 车制造商们如何应对挑战,抓住机遇? 2007 年 10 月 29-30 日,由中欧国际工商学院 主办的第五届中国汽车产业高峰论坛以“中国汽车产 业 :从合资到全球联盟”为主要议题,邀请国际汽 车行业巨头以及相关领域的政府官员、专家学者齐 聚一堂,与 300 多位业内人士共同探讨中国汽车产 业的未来。 高位运行的中国经济的五大问题 在过去的五年中,中国 GDP 继续保持迅猛的增 长势头,以年均两位数的增长令全球瞩目,而长期 没有明显增长的居民消费需求也在最近两年得到了增 长。 特别报道 2007汽车产业高峰论坛 TheLINK 2007 冬季刊 TheLINK Winter 2007/8 2007 AUTO FORUM fEaTurE 中国高速发展的经济在取得瞩目成绩的同时, 也带来了一系列的问题,中国社会科学院特邀顾问 王洛林教授在论坛上指出五大问题,包括经济运行 从偏快转向过热的风险、通胀压力加大、资产价格 过快增长、内外部失衡并存、转变经济增长方式的 紧迫性。他提醒说,这些问题如果不能加以及时解决, 中国经济就难以保持快速发展。 对于今年以来的通货膨胀现象,王洛林认为这 是由于“最近几年来,银行资金流动性过剩越来越 严重、原材料价格上涨、居民实际收入提高,中国 经济在好几个方面都积累了通货膨胀的压力,这样 一种压力必然会以某种方式表现出来”。他表示,只 要经济保持目前这样一种超高速度增长,在可以预 见的将来,中国的通货膨胀率还将继续。但是他更 为担心的是资产价格的过快增长,以及由此导致的 金融风险。他指出 :“目前相对于通货膨胀来说,人 们对于资产价格膨胀的危害性还缺乏警惕。因为资 产价格膨胀在一段时期内不至于直接导致物价的上 涨,而股价、房价的大幅度上涨所带来的财富效应 甚至还会刺激消费的增长。而实际上资产价格的膨 胀已经不限于股票和房地产,一旦资产价格泡沫破 灭,会导致严重的金融风险。” 对于目前中国经济面临的主要矛盾——内外部 内外部失衡并存:中国社 会科学院特邀顾问王洛林 教授认为目前中国经济面 临的最大挑战是“内外部 失衡并存”的问题。 OUT OF BALANCE – Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Special Advisor Wang Luolin said the top challenge facing <strong>China</strong>’s economy is “internal and external imbalances.” By Audrey Wu <strong>China</strong> is now home to the world’s largest automobile market af ter the United States, and the largest con- sumer population on the planet. These two facts have sent global car- makers swarming into the Middle Kingdom in recent years. Simply put: Winning the <strong>China</strong> market is now critical for the global success of international automakers. But succeeding in this market is not easy, even for the world’s best known car brands. More than 130 international and domestic au- tomobile manufacturers now operate in <strong>China</strong>. Each of these makers is competing against the world’s top international players as well as fast- improving domestic players. Adding to the competitive fire is <strong>China</strong>’s increasingly attractive and fast-growing auto- buying population. Since <strong>China</strong>’s accession to WTO in 2001, national civilian auto purchases have grown significantly every year. According to NBS statistics, Chinese citizens purchased 50 million civilian cars in 2006, a 15 percent in- crease over the previous year. <strong>China</strong> now boasts a large population of sophisticated and wealthy car buyers, proving its arrival as an “Auto Nation.” Maneuvering through this new Auto Nation was the topic of CEIBS’ 5th Annual <strong>China</strong> Automotive Industry Forum, held from October 29 to 30 at the school’s Shanghai cam- pus. Entitled “<strong>China</strong>’s Auto Industry: From Joint Ventures to Global Alliances,” the event attracted more than 20 top executives from global automakers, high-level Chinese govern- ment officials, and industry experts to speak on the challenges and opportunities of the country’s auto industry. More than 300 profes- sionals and 70 local and international media members attended. To follow are the primary findings gleaned from the conference. ChiNA’s COMiNG eCONOMiC ChAlleNGes During the past five years, <strong>China</strong> has witnessed rapid economic growth with an impressive GDP rate of over 10 percent annually. This growth has helped give a modest boost to general consumer demand, which had stagnated during the past decade. Conference speakers began by deliver- ing rosy predictions for <strong>China</strong>’s auto industry, but noting a raft of emerging problems related to the nation’s economy. Special Advisor & Professor of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Wang Luolin kicked off the forum by warning of key chal- lenges that have accompanied the rapid develop- ment of the Chinese economy. These include: the risk of an overheated economy, increasing inflationary pressure, surging asset prices, in- ternal and external imbalances, and the need to reform <strong>China</strong>’s economic growth model. Wang believes <strong>China</strong>’s inflation in 2007 was triggered by a combination of reasons including ex- cess liquidity of bank capital, rising raw material pric- es, and increasing domestic real income. “All these factors have added to the inflationary pressure. And this pressure must be released in some way,” he said, predicting that as long as the economy maintains this current high-speed growth, inflation will continue. Wang also warned that the “wealth effect” brought on by the considerable increase of <strong>China</strong>’s stock and property prices “may even accelerate” the purchase of real estate and stocks. <strong>China</strong>’s asset-price inflation is now “not limited to stock and real estate,” he said, but includes a wide spectrum of products from tea to orchids. Wang called this shift “a very dangerous signal,” adding: “the potential bursting of the bubble will lead to severe financial risks.”
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