Final Report - Asian Development Bank

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 2 – Project Context 2.2 Socio-economic and Demographic Circumstances 21. The last national population census in Vietnam was in 1999. For the purposes of the project estimates of population at base year (2007) and design years (2015, 2025) were made based on the projection data in the reports from HOUTRANS 1 and from the Study on the Adjustment of HCMC Master Plan 2 . 22. In 2007 the estimated population of Ho Chi Minh City was over 6.5 million, growing at around 2.9% per year. In addition, more than 2.5 million people live in the adjoining provinces of Lan An, Dong Nai and Binh Duong, totalling more than 9 million people in the Study Area. It is forecast that the Study Area population will reach over 13.8 million by 2025, with 10 million people in HCMC 3 . Most of the population growth is projected to happen in outer areas (the urban fringe, suburban and other outlying communities), while the inner core areas are projected either to decrease their populations (in high density areas) or increase moderately (in medium/low density areas). (See Figure 2.1-1 for a view of the estimated populations for 2007, 2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.) Figure 2.2-1: Population Estimates (in thousands) for 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1,400 1,300 2,400 2,600 3,000 2,100 2,000 2,900 1,400 2,300 1,500 1,300 2,600 Inner Core - high density Inner Core - med/low density 3,200 Urban Fringe Suburban Others 23. In 2007, HCMC employed more than 3 million people and the Study Area almost 4.2 million people. By 2025, it is projected that HCMC will employ more than 5.5 million people and the Study Area more than 7.2 million people. While the employment growth is projected to spread throughout the Study Area ore evenly, the outer areas are still expected to generate most of the future employment (See Figure 2.2-2 for a view of the projected employment for 2007, 2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.) 24. Viet Nam was among the world's fastest-growing economies with GDP growth rates above 7.0% in 2001-2004 and above 8.0% in the last three years. In 2008, The GDP growth forecast for 2008 is around 8.5%. HCMC is the largest city in Viet Nam and the primary centre of economic activity and, as such, its GDP growth has outpaced the national level growth: between 10% and 12% in 2001- 2004 and more than 12% in 2004-2007. In the prospective future HCMC will continue to be the major centre of economic activity of the country. 1 The Study On Urban Transport Master Plan And Feasibility Study In Ho Chi Minh Metropolitan Area (HOUTRANS), JICA, ALMEC, 2004 2 The Study of the Adjustment of HCMC Master Plan up to 2025, Nikken Sekkei, Urban Planning Institute, April 2007 3 For more details on socio-economic conditions the reader is referred technical documents prepared as part of the PPTA: Project Context and MRT Master Plan Report, December 2007, and HCMC Master Plan Ridership and Revenue Forecast Study, Final Report, January 2008. 4,100 Key: 2007 2015 2025 2-2
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 2 – Project Context Figure 2.2-2: Projected Employment in 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 900 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,000 1,500 1,500 800 1,000 700 500 1,200 Inner Core - high density Inner Core - med/low density Source: Project team 900 1,400 Urban Fringe Suburban Others 2.3 Historic Trends in Transport Demand and Supply 1,800 25. Since 2003 bus ridership in HCMC has grown steadily. Following the development of the subsidized public transport network ridership has grown from 130,000 daily in March 2003 (42 lines) to 605,000 in 2006 (110 lines). This has built public awareness and trust in the system. In July 2007, the weekday ridership was 675,000 passengers. 26. Despite the recent improvements to the bus system and rapid increases in bus network patronage, the current share of total motorised trips by public transport is still extremely low for a major international city, at less than 5%. The vast majority of trips are made by motorcycle. Car and taxi trips, whilst still a tiny proportion of the total, are increasing fast, and roads are rapidly becoming congested and dangerous due to the mix of traffic and pedestrians. 27. In 2007, private vehicles represented an abnormally high proportion (93%) of total journeys (19.1 million non-pedestrian journeys per day), broken down between motorcycles 78%, cars 1.2%, and bicycles 14%. Historically, car ownership has been lower than in comparable economies in the region. With continued growth of the economy expected in the medium term, there is significant potential for household incomes to rise, enabling many more families to be able to afford to purchase cars (particularly as on 1 May 2006 the Government again allowed used cars to be imported, a move that is expected to lead to falls in prices). Between 2004 and 2007, motorcycle ownership in Ho Chi Minh Province has grown at an annual rate of 8.4% to almost 3.1 million motorcycles. Private car ownership has increased even faster, at 20.7% per year to more than 200,000 vehicles and total car numbers (including taxis, other non-private owners) have grown to almost 400.000. 28. If current trends are not offset by better transport infrastructure and public transport systems, HCMC will face congestion, road safety, and air pollution difficulties similar to those in other large Asian cities such as Bangkok, Beijing, Manila, and Jakarta. The goal of HCMC People’s Committee is to raise the share of public transport to carry 25% of all daily motorized trips by 2010 and 50% by 2020, a sharp increase from mid 2007 levels which were as low as 3% in the study Area. 2.4 Government Policies on Urban and Transport Development 29. Many relevant recent studies have been carried out concerning urban and transport development for HCMC. The most significant of the above studies in terms of identifying government policies and HCMC urban and transport master plan refinement is the “HCMC Transport Development Planning to 2020” completed in 2006, since this formed the basis for “Decision 101” and the Official Master Plan which were approved by the Prime Minister. This approved Master Plan targets public transport mode share of 22-26% by 2010-2015 and 47-50% by 2020, and proposes national, 2-3
Page 1 and 2: Technical Assistance Consultant’s
Page 3 and 4: Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System
Page 11: Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System
Page 55 and 56: Types of Impact Wastewa ter Ho Chi
Page 63 and 64:
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
Page 131 and 132:
Page 133 and 134:
Page 135 and 136:
Page 137 and 138:
Page 139 and 140:
Page 141 and 142:
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169:
show all

Final Report - Asian Development Bank

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?