Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts Figure 3.4-5 Peak Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 Tham Luong to Ben Thanh – Master Plan Case 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 St01-An Suong St02 St03 St04 St05-Ba Queo Line 2 : Peak Passenger Load St06 St07-Nga Tu Bay Hien 3.4.5 Ultimate Capacity for Line 2 St08 St09 St10-Ga Saigon 57. The forecasts above indicate the demand estimates for Line 2 at the key design years, and the project is designed on this basis for the purpose of this feasibility study. However it is worth noting that based on the proposed technology with minimum headways reduced to 2 minutes (the minimum feasible for the proposed system), the Line 2 is capable of providing a higher ultimate capacity. This ultimate capacity is estimated at between 40,000 and 60,000 pphpd, with the range depending on assumed passenger crowding of between 5 persons per m 2 (normal full loading) to 8 persons per m 2 (absolute crush conditions). To achieve this capacity would require improvements to signaling and access capacity, but demonstrates that the Line will be capable of serving well into the long term future for the city. 3.4.6 Transport Interchanges and Park’n’Ride 58. As noted, the demand forecasts have assumed that bus routes will be restructured so that the buses feed passengers to MRT stations, rather than providing a competing alternative mode. This implies that there will be high interchange demands between bus and MRT at MRT stations. 59. Furthermore, it is expected that there will also be high demand for interchange between private modes (car and in particular motorcycles) at MRT stations, as it may be attractive to many people to use their motorcycle to ride from their home to the MRT station, and then take the MRT into the city centre. This will be especially the case if policies are put in place to make motorcycle access and parking in the city centre prohibitively expensive or restricted (such policies will be essential if the high PT mode share is to be achieved). 60. The two main stations requiring bus “public transport interchange” (PTI) will be the end stations, Tham Luong and Ben Thanh, although it must be noted that Tham Luong may be an interim end station if the line is later extended to An Suong. At both of these stations it is recommended that suitably sized PTI’s are planned and constructed integral with the MRT stations and surrounding areas 61. Demand for motorcycle parking is also expected to be particularly high at the terminal station (Tham Luong or An Suong), and it is recommended that a motorcycle (and car) “park’n’ride” facility be planned at this station, again to be fully integrated with the MRT station, PTI and surrounding land uses. There is expected to also be demand for motorcycle parking at most interim stations, since the line passes through areas of high residential density. It may not be necessary to provide parking at all stations, and it is recommended that opportunities are studied in conjunction with station area planning studies to determine optimal locations and integrated designs for park’n’ride facilities. 3.4.7 Ramp-Up 62. Experience with other new Metro systems both in Asia and worldwide shows that it usually takes some time before actual ridership patterns build up to those forecast by the demand models. St11-Dien Bien Phu Boarding Alighting Forward Reverse St12-Tao Dan St13-Ben Thanh 3-8
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts This is due to time taken for people to understand the new system, adjust their travel habits, and may also be affected by time taken to implement bus restructuring, to develop good station accesses to nearby buildings, and to implement the complementary policy measures to encourage usage of public transport. Ramp-up can also be affected by other “external” factors such as political or economic changes, fuel prices, and even natural disasters. The ramp-up effect and period can be significantly influenced by advertising and promotional campaigns both in advance of, and upon, opening of the new Line 63. Thus the extent of the ramp-up effect depends on many factors, and is very difficult to quantify precisely. Our estimate for HCMC Line 2 is based on experience in other cities, and in particular in Bangkok where the first Metro line opened in late 1999. In Bangkok it is estimated that opening year patronage was some 30-40% below “steady state” estimates, and that it took some 4-5 years for the effect to dissipate. The ramp-up effect on opening year patronage is illustrated in Figure 3.4-6 below. Figure 3.4-6 Ramp-up Effect 64. On the basis of this ramp-up estimate, the economic and financial analyses of the project have incorporated the ramp-up factors shown in Table 3.4-3 below. Table 3.4-3 Ramp-up Factors Applied to Demand Projections Year % of Model Demand Used 2016 60% 2017 85% 2018 92% 2019 97% 2020 100% 3.4.8 Sensitivity Tests 65. In order to understand the uncertainty and risk in the demand projections, a number of sensitivity tests were carried out. These are reported in detail in the Technical Paper and key findings are summarised below. Trend Forecasts 66. As noted earlier, the above demand models were adjusted to reflect the Government “policy” objective of achieving 40-50% PT mode share by 2025. This will entail a massive shift in travel behaviour and introduction of some very strong transport and policy initiatives. Clearly there is a risk that this may not happen as quickly or to the extent targeted. Therefore forecasts were developed for a “trend” scenario – still based on major PT transport improvements and strong policy initiatives, but with parameter values based on the consultants’ experience of what has been achieved in other cities. 3-9
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Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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