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Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project <strong>Final</strong> <strong>Report</strong> - Revised<br />

Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts<br />

67. This scenario resulted in a much lower PT mode share at 2025 as illustrated in Figure 3.4-7<br />

below. Under this scenario ridership demand for Line 2 (still based on the master plan network) is<br />

estimated at 135,000 in 2015, and 405,000 passengers in 2025. These compare to 174,000 and<br />

594,000 respectively under the master plan policy scenario.<br />

Figure 3.4-7 Projected Modal Split in 2025 – Trend Case Scenario<br />

Fare Sensitivity<br />

Motorcycle<br />

+ Bicycle<br />

49%<br />

Total Trips<br />

Public<br />

Transport<br />

22%<br />

Car<br />

29%<br />

Ferry, 0.4%<br />

PT long<br />

distance,<br />

10.4%<br />

Public Transport<br />

Boardings<br />

Rail, 30.7%<br />

Bus, 58.5%<br />

68. The fare assumed on Line 2 (and other MRT Lines) in the forecasts above is VND4,000 per<br />

boarding (constant in real terms, ie adjusted for future years in line with inflation). Sensitivity tests<br />

indicated that this fare would be close to optimum for maximising revenues at year 2015, but that by<br />

year 2025 a higher fare of VND6-7,000 would yield higher revenues, as a result of increasing<br />

prosperity and hence willingness to pay for the premium service.<br />

Bus Network and Bus Restructuring<br />

69. Various tests were carried out on different bus network, speeds, interchange convenience, etc.<br />

The most significant of these was the implication of bus restructuring. In the base case forecasts it is<br />

assumed that bus routes are restructured on introduction of MRT such that there is no significant<br />

competition, and that the bus routes complement rather than compete with the MRT. In effect this<br />

forces PT passengers to use the MRT lines, thus ensuring good usage of MRT and minimising the<br />

need for road-based PT in the city centre.<br />

70. Experience in other cities has shown that such restructuring does not always happen in<br />

practice. The model tests indicated a major impact on MRT ridership if buses are allowed to compete<br />

freely with MRT, with MRT ridership reduced by 18% overall, and for Line 2 up to 38%.<br />

3-10

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