Final Report - Asian Development Bank

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Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts Figure 3.4-2 Year 2015 Mode Split (based on policy forecasts) Motorcycle + Bicycle 58% Total Trips Public Transport 27% Car 15% Ferry 2% PT long distance 6% Rail 9% Bus 83% 3.4.3 MRT Demand Forecasts – Year 2025 (full master plan) 51. MRT demand forecasts were prepared for both the “approved” and “optimised” MRT network master plan scenarios. For the purpose of this report full results are presented for the approved plan, since this represents official policy. Forecasts for Line 2 are checked against the optimised network. Demand forecasts for each line under the approved master plan scenario are shown in Table 3.4-1 and Figure 3.4-3 below. Table 3.4-1 Ridership Forecast per Line – Master Plan Case 2025 Line Stations Daily ridership Peak Loading 1 14 386,000 25,300 2 18 594,000 26,600 3 17 670,000 21,500 4 14 364,000 13,200 5 18 352,000 9,200 6 7 69,000 2,900 Tram 22 290,000 8,100 XD2 8 60,000 2,000 XD3 4 23,000 1,500 Source: Own estimates Figure 3.4-3 Schematic of MRT Lines 2025 Demand Forecast – Master Plan Case 3-6
Ho Chi Minh City Metro Rail System Project Final Report - Revised Management Authority for Urban Railways Chapter 3 – Transport Master Plan & Forecasts 52. The morning peak hour station loadings for Line 2 under the above scenario are shown below. It can be seen that the terminal station at An Suong acts as a very major transport interchange with feeder and other buses, and that the busiest alighting stations are in the CBD, with Ben Thanh (interchange with Lines 1 and 4) being the busiest central station. Figure 3.4-4 Peak AM Passenger Load in 2025 for Line 2 (complete length) – Master Plan Case 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 St01-An Suong St02 St03 St04 St05-Ba Queo St06 Line 2 : Peak Passenger Load St07-Nga Tu Bay Hien St08 St09 St10-Ga Saigon St11-D ien Bi en Phu St12-Tao Dan St13-Ben Thanh St14-Saigon Riverside St15-Thu Tiem Riverside St16-Binh Khanh Boarding Alighting For ward Reverse 53. Under the “optimised” MRT master plan scenario it was found that Line 2 demands would be slightly less, at 551,000 passengers per day, and peak loading of 24,900 pphpd. 3.4.4 MRT Demand Forecasts – Line 2 “Project Line” 54. The ultimate master plan includes Line 2 running from An Suong in the northwest, across the river to terminate at Thu Thiem in the southeast, with a total of 18 stations. This feasibility study however presents the initial Line 2 “Project Line”, running from Tham Luong in the northwest to Ben Thanh in the southeast, a total of 11 stations. In order to evaluate the Project Line it is therefore necessary to consider demand forecasts for the reduced line. 55. Forecasts for year 2025 were prepared with other assumptions as above, but with the project line of only 11 stations. Bus networks were restructured to optimise the project line, and thus the end station Tham Luong would provide the major interchange rather than An Suong with the full Line 2. Similarly, for 2015 Line 2 was represented with 11 stations, whilst the other Lines 1, 3 and 4 were included in the network. 56. The forecast model was utilised to project 2015 and 2025 ridership demands. Beyond the 2025 time horizon it is difficult to predict metro patronage with any confidence. However these are required for financial analyses and estimates were calculated on the basis of a steady annual growth from 2025 to 2035 of 3.5%. This is similar to the growth rate used in projections for Line 4 from 2022 to 2037 (3.7%), a figure that reflects HCMC PC’s public transport growth policy. Resulting forecasts are shown in Table 3.4-2 and Figure 3.4-5 below. Table 3.4-2 Summary Demand Forecasts for Line 2 – Ben Thanh – Tham Luong Daily AM Peak Year Boarding Load 2015 173,800 8,500 2025 481,700 21,400 2035 (1) 679,500 30,200 (1) Considers 2025-2035 annual growth rate of 3.5%. St17-Binh Khanh St18-Thu Tiem 3-7
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